The Clemson Tigers (9-3, 7-1 ACC) face the SMU Mustangs (11-1, 9-0) in the 2024 ACC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
SMU's transition to the ACC shouldn't have been this easy.
The Mustangs agreed to join the ACC without $200 million in television revenue over nine years. Alumni quickly recuperated more than $100 million with the added statement, "Money is literally not an issue."
Those donors hit blackjack at the tables as SMU swept the ACC schedule and will have a chance to win the conference.
Clemson had an emotional roller coaster of a Week 14, first losing to in-state rival South Carolina. The Tigers ended Saturday on a high note, as a Syracuse upset of Miami placed Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Head coach Dabo Swinney has the chance to capture a seventh conference title over the last 10 years.
Clemson opened as a 1-point favorite before steam on SMU moved the market to favor the Mustangs. The Tigers have remained as 2.5-point underdogs throughout the week with a 55.5-point over/under.
Read on for our Clemson vs SMU predictions and college football picks for the ACC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Clemson vs. SMU Prediction, Best Bet
- Clemson vs. SMU Pick: SMU -2.5
My SMU vs. Clemson best bet is on the on the Tigers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Clemson Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs Odds
| Clemson Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| SMU Mustangs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -148 |
Clemson vs. SMU ACC Championship Preview
Clemson Tigers Betting Preview
Clemson successfully moved the ball against one of the stingiest defenses in the nation in South Carolina.
The Tigers averaged 4.8 yards per rush, generating a 65% Success Rate in 54 standard downs. Half of the 12 offensive possessions contained two first downs for coordinator Garrett Riley, who has used a heavy amount of inside zone and counter with the rushing attack.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik has had an increased role on the ground down the stretch, posting nearly an even distribution of designed yards versus scrambles.
The Clemson offense has seen a decline in the numbers of workhorse running back Phil Mafah. The senior carried the ball for more than 100 yards in six of his first nine games but has totaled just 105 rushing yards in the past three games against Pitt, The Citadel and South Carolina.
Klubnik has been lights out in passing attempts over the past month, throwing eight touchdowns to just two interceptions since Week 11 against Virginia Tech.
Freshman wideout Bryant Wesco has seen increased usage in the offense, receiving 10 targets against South Carolina with a season explosive mark of 2.3 yards per route run.
This version of the Clemson defense is nowhere near the championship-level play experienced before the pandemic season of 2020.
Despite ranking top 10 nationally in Defensive Havoc, coordinator Wes Goodwin has seen a step back in defending the run and allowing the big play.
Linebackers Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz have each missed 10 tackles this season, and the Tigers rank 86th nationally in PFF's Tackling grades.
Defending the rush has also been a concern for the Tigers, as they rank mid-FBS in efficiency, Line Yards, and Stuff Rate on the season.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The knock on SMU has been its strength of schedule, a hot topic for Athletic Director Rick Hart.
The Mustangs have had the 75th toughest schedule, thanks to an opening ACC schedule that did not include Clemson or Miami.
SMU is clearly under pressure to win this game or fall out of the College Football Playoff, as Alabama could steal an at-large bid.
SMU has thrived on offense since quarterback Kevin Jennings took over starting duties in Week 4 against TCU. The junior has posted more than 200 rushing yards on designed calls this season, as head coach Rhett Lashlee leans on inside zone more than any team in the ACC.
Miami transfer running back Brashard Smith has been elite this season, racking up 14 touchdowns with more than 1,100 rushing yards. In the rare occasion that SMU falls into passing downs, Jennings has been lethal, with the seventh-best number of explosives created through the air.
Defensive coordinator Scott Symons has coached his unit to top-25 rankings in nearly every advanced stat, including top 10 rankings in Quality and Finishing Drives.
SMU's defense ranks in the top 20 nationally in average third-down distance to go at 7.8 yards per attempt.
The secondary plays a heavy amount of Cover 3 while ranking 14th nationally in hard-stop rate, and the Mustangs rank top 20 in explosives allowed.
If we're being nitpicky, the Mustangs have struggled with penalties. Only three teams nationally average more penalty yards per game. According to Sport Source Analytics, they've committed 28 "undisciplined penalties" this season.
SMU vs. Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Clemson match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs. SMU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 9 | |
SMU Offense vs. Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 27 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 36 | 23 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 104 | 51 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (34) | 25.0 (25) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (104) | 58% (38) |
Clemson vs. SMU Picks, Best Bets
There is reason to believe SMU will be able to defend the inside zone and counter combination from the Clemson offense.
The Mustangs have generated a success rate of at least 57% against both run concepts while producing a negative EPA for opponents.
Klubnik may find the Tigers' offense in passing downs throughout the game. That's an advantage for SMU's defense, which ranks 15th nationally in PFF's pass rush grades.
Clemson might not move the ball well, as Klubnik has posted average numbers against the SMU coverage looks of Cover 3 and Quarters. The Mustangs rank in the top 50 nationally in contested catches created.
Clemson's struggles to stop the rush should lead to explosive plays for SMU. Clemson ranks near dead last in Rush EPA allowed.
The Mustangs are more explosive through the air, especially when Jennings targets slot receiver Roderick Daniels Jr.
After losing top target RJ Maryland, Daniels became the go-to option from the slot with an explosive 2.2 yards per route run.
Clemson has been most vulnerable to the explosive play in early downs, which bodes poorly against an SMU offense that ranks ninth nationally in offensive momentum killer.
The Action Network Power Ratings make SMU a two-point favorite over Clemson in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium.
SMU has advantages on both sides of the ball regarding run concept usage, with an explosive factor in favor of the Mustangs' passing game.
The current market of -2.5 is the limit for a play on SMU, with any moneyline offering of -135 or better as the best investment.
Pick: SMU -2.5 or better OR SMU ML (-135 or better)
Clemson vs. SMU Streaming, How to Watch, Location, Start Time, Channel
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Clemson vs SMU will be played in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday, Dec. 7 at 8:00 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ABC.
SMU vs. Clemson Betting Trends to Know
SMU vs. Clemson Weather Forecast
