The eyes of Texas and the college football world will turn to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday when the Clemson Tigers (10-3, 7-1 ACC) battle the Texas Longhorns (11-2, 7-1 SEC).
Texas suffered its first loss in a thrilling overtime SEC Championship game against Georgia.
Despite an elite defensive performance that limited the Bulldogs to 4.1 yards per play, head coach Steve Sarkisian's offensive play-calling could not capitalize. Frustration grew as Texas committed 11 penalties for 94 yards.
Although Clemson lost three games this season, head coach Dabo Swinney has his team in the national championship hunt.
The Tigers are making their seventh appearance in the College Football Playoff, just one behind Alabama. Despite winning the ACC Championship for the ninth time since 2011, Clemson beat SMU with just a 30% post-game win expectancy.
Swinney can parlay the conference title into four more wins for his third national title.
This is the largest playoff spread, as an opener of Texas -10.5 was quickly steamed to -12.5. The total has taken a small amount of under money to move an opener of 53.5 down to 51.
Read on for our Clemson vs. Texas predictions and college football picks for this College Football Playoff battle on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Clemson Tigers vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks
- Clemson vs. Texas Pick: Clemson +13
My Clemson vs. Texas best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Clemson vs Texas Odds, Spread, Lines
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +400 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -550 |
- Clemson vs Texas Spread: Clemson +13.5 · Texas -13.5
- Clemson vs Texas Over/Under: 51 Points
- Clemson vs Texas Moneyline: Clemson +400 · Texas -550
Clemson vs Texas College Football Playoff Betting Preview
Clemson Tigers Betting Preview: Finding the Championship Formula
Clemson's offense struggled in the ACC Championship game against SMU, ending with less than 4.5 overall yards per play.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik produced just a single methodical drive in 15 offensive possessions, defined as a drive with at least 10 plays.
The duo of Klubnik and running back Phil Mafah produced 49 rushing yards on 27 attempts with a mix of inside zone and counter.
While the season-long Clemson numbers point to a more successful rushing attack, the emergence of freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco paid dividends against the Mustangs.
Wesco faded in the middle of the season, but he exploded against SMU with 142 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. At 2.4 yards per route run and consistently lining up as the left side wideout, Texas corners will have their hands full with the track and field star.
Klubnik has seen the benefit of having an outside weapon beyond the slot targets of Jake Briningstool and Antonio Williams, producing the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career.
Defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin has been unable to produce the defenses of Venables before the pandemic, but one consistent factor remains: Havoc. Clemson finished top 15 in both tackles for loss and pass breakups plus interceptions.
The Tigers' 4-2-5 nickel packages have been elite in eliminating pass explosives, also contributing to a top 10 rank in hard stops, per PFF. Edge TJ Parker has been a one-man wrecking crew, from creating the fourth-highest individual number of tackles for loss to ranking 17th of all edge rushers in pass rush productivity.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Defense Gives Horns a Fighting Chance
Texas failed to win the SEC in its first year of the conference, producing one of the worst offensive performances of the season.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers had struggled in the most significant moments of the season, as 12 of his 17 turnover-worthy plays have come against Georgia and Texas A&M.
There have been two contributing factors to the Longhorns offense that made the playoff last season: pressure and drops.
With 60 fewer dropbacks than last season, Texas has allowed a higher pressure rate in the pocket on Ewers. The Ohio State transfer's turnover-worthy play rate has skyrocketed with a crowded pocket, moving from 1.9% in 2023 to 5.6% this season.
The good news for Texas football is that Ewers led the team to a top 25 rank in On-Target rate, a stat from Sports Info Solutions that measures accuracy.
Despite the accuracy and number of passing attempts, the Longhorns moved from 10 drops to 19 over the past year. The team's jump in drops has been a collective effort, as Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr, and Matthew Golden have combined for 11 on the season.
Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's nickel defense has carried the team. After an entire SEC schedule, Texas ranks in the top two nationally in numerous categories, including Quality Drives, Finishing Drives, Coverage, and imiting Pass Explosives.
Despite losing two chaotic interior players on the defensive line from last season, Texas ranks fifth nationally in Havoc, primarily because of an aggressive pass rush.
Nearly 80% of blitz packages from the Longhorns have come with just four rushers, allowing maximum protection against opponents looking to pass. Edge rushers Barryn Sorrell and Colin Simmons have been the strength of the pass rush, producing 70 pressures this season.
Texas vs Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Clemson match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 1 | |
Texas Offense vs. Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 27 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 38 |
| PFF Coverage | 36 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 99 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (10) | 23.7 (13) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (106) | 53% (84) |
How to Bet My Clemson vs Texas Pick
The handicap for Texas and Clemson starts with the offensive tackle position, considering both teams have future NFL edge rushers.
Clemson right tackle Blake Miller has failed to allow a sack all season through 531 pass-blocking snaps. Blindside tackle Tristan Leigh had a tremendous season in pass blocking until the SMU defensive line produced four pressures and a sack.
The excellent news for the Clemson offense is the progression of Klubnik with a crowded pocket, lowering his turnover-worthy play rate from 6.7% to just 3.1% since last season.
There is reason to believe edge TJ Parker will earn pressure against the Texas offensive line.
Injury to left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr created chaos for Ewers in the pocket, as backup Trevor Goosby allowed three pressures while producing one of the worst run-blocking grades on the line against Texas A&M and Georgia. Right tackle Cameron Williams has also had his share of struggles, allowing nearly half of his season-long pressures over the past two games.
Considering Parker rotates in a mix of edges with Peter Woods and Jahiem Lawson, expect protection audible from Ewers while spying for number 3.
The Clemson rush defense has left plenty to be desired this season, but one hidden advantage could come in the Texas run concept package.
The Longhorns use outside zone read concepts with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, with a smaller percentage of carries utilizing power. The Tigers have not been great against power run concepts, but thanks to elite defensive end play, they have a respectable 48% Success Rate against outside zone.
While there are opportunities for the Clemson defense to get after Texas in known passing downs, Klubnik will be asked to save the Tigers' season once again with his arm.
For all the high rankings of the Longhorns' defense, Texas ranks 57th in creating contested catches.
Clemson is not an explosive pass unit from a season-long perspective. Still, neutral efficiency from the Longhorns secondary will give Clemson a chance to Wesco, Briningstool and Williams with a clean window.
Action Network projects Texas to win by 14, including three points of home-field advantage for the Longhorns. There is the expectation of heavy steam on the favorite as parlay cards will need an upset on Saturday in one of three playoff games.
Clemson will not have the sustained success of offense to score enough points, but the chaotic defense should keep the Tigers within the number.
Pick: Clemson +13 or Better
Clemson vs Texas Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | TNT |
Clemson vs Texas will be played at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 4 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on TNT.
Clemson vs Texas Betting Trends
- 59% of bets and 39% of the money are on Clemson to cover the spread
- 97% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline are on Texas to win outright
- 54% of bets and 46% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Clemson vs Texas Weather
