The Week 4 college football board is a sight for sore eyes — and we deserve it after enduring a Week 3 schedule without a single real marquee game.
We have four games between Top 25 teams this weekend, and it all starts with No. 24 Illinois vs. No. 24 Nebraska on Friday night in Lincoln — but that's not where our staff sees the most value.
Our college football writers came through with three best bets for Friday's NCAAF games, including one pick for Stanford vs. Syracuse and two picks for San Jose State vs. Washington State.
So, let's enjoy this three-game Friday night appetizer — because Saturday's main course is going to be a big one.
Continue reading for our college football best bets for Friday, Sept. 20.
College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Stanford vs. Syracuse Best Bet
The Stanford Cardinal will make the trip to Upstate New York to face the Syracuse Orange, as both teams look to become acquainted as new ACC foes.
Syracuse transfer quarterback Kyle McCord will be the driving storyline and vector of our betting strategy for this Friday night affair between two storied schools.
McCord has been on a tear this season after finding a new home in Syracuse when things ended poorly with Ohio State last year. So far, McCord has made the most of his second act, averaging 367.5 yards per game and throwing eight touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Against their two other opponents this season, Ohio and Georgia Tech, the Orange have averaged 34.5 points per game. Well, lo and behold, that's exactly where the team total for tonight’s game is. I think this is an early-season inefficiency that we can take advantage of.
This looks to be a very tough matchup for the Stanford defense. That's especially true in the secondary, which ranks 118th nationally in pass defense by giving up 278.5 yards per game.
In addition to having a weak secondary, the Cardinal are having trouble generating Havoc at the line of scrimmage. Through two games, they have exactly two sacks — and that's including their most recent game against 0-2 FCS Cal Poly.
Both teams are coming off of a bye and should be well prepared, but I like focusing on what I see to be the more likely outcome in this game — McCord picking apart a weak defense.
I expect the Syracuse offense to come out hot and take advantage of its fast indoor field. Back McCord and Syracuse to continue the hot streak, and don’t be surprised if the Orange put up 40-pls points.
I recommend betting the Syracuse team total over 34.5 at -120 or better.
Pick: Syracuse Team Total Over 34.5 (+105 · Play to -120)
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San Jose State vs. Washington State Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Washington State is fresh off an Apple Cup victory over in-state rival Washington and is off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the spread.
The Cougars have exceeded expectations so far this year, highlighted by the play of quarterback John Mateer. The dual-threat signal-caller has been electric all season. Last week against Washington, Mateer made big-time throws to extend drives in critical situations. He also had two long touchdowns on the ground.
The Washington State rushing attack has been much improved this season, a focus of this coaching staff in the summer.
Meanwhile, the Cougar defense has shown promise, specifically after the opposition crosses midfield.
Washington settled for four field goals and had two other drives stopped without scoring points. When Wazzu played, Texas Tech, three Red Raider drives also stalled inside the WSU's 40 yard-line and resulted in zero points.
San Jose State also comes in 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Spartans have played vastly weaker competition. We have backed the Spartans a couple of times this year, but I think they're fool's gold in this instance.
Their defensive metrics — specifically Stuff Rate, Defensive Finishing Drives and EPA per Play — have been skewed by playing Kennesaw State and Air Force. These are two of the worst offensive programs in the entire country that provide no explosiveness or passing threat to defend against.
This is an area where I think the Cougars can take advantage, as their balanced offensive attack provides multiple threats to this defense.
Reviewing the tape against Sacramento State, San Jose State was getting gashed up and down the field the entire first half. The turning point was Sac State getting stuffed on fourth-and-goal from the one-inch line while already up seven points. A score there would've extended the Hornets' lead.
More Sac State errors led to an additional two drives in the red zone ending with just three points.
Offensively, the Spartans can't run the ball and are completely reliant on wide receiver Nick Nash to make plays to extend drives. Nash has accounted for 46% of San Jose State’s offensive output this season. I believe the Cougars can limit his production in this matchup.
The spot screams "Spartans," and the market has agreed up to this point. However, I'm not completely sold on this San Jose State team being very good.
SJSU was fortunate to beat Sacramento State and found itself in battles with Air Force and Kennesaw State late in those games. I have complete confidence in Washington State being laser-focused in this matchup.
Pick: Washington State -12 (Play to -13.5)
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San Jose State vs. Washington State Best Bet
By John Feltman
One thing I'm sure about is both of these offenses are going to find success.
These offenses are also lightning quick, ranking inside the top 40 in seconds per play. Many are overrating the Spartans defense without realizing they've played Sacramento State, Kennesaw State and Air Force.
The Cougars' offensive numbers might not be that impressive, but the Spartans’ defensive metrics are certainly fabricated by their weak schedule thus far.
I'm also very fond of SJSU quarterback Emmett Brown and wide receiver Nick Nash, who have established a strong connection in the early going.
Nash has caught all 34 passes and scored six touchdowns in three games this season. The Cougs defense ranks 120th in Havoc, so I expect them to be bulled most of the night.
Washington State is also brutal at tackling and in the special teams department, ranking 128th in both categories.
To me, this handicap has a lot to do with both defenses as opposed to the offenses. With a lightning-quick pace expected, there should be a ton of possessions for both teams.
This is a clear over play for me.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 57.5)
