Playoff season is upon us. That doesn't mean only the College Football Playoff, but the FCS Playoffs as well.
With the first round of the College Football Playoff and the semifinals of the FCS Playoffs taking place this weekend, our college football writers decided to dive deep into all six games to find their best bets for Saturday's college football slate.
The end result? Four best bets, including two picks for No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State, a pick for No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas and a pick for South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State in the Dakota Marker rematch.
So, whether you're looking to bet the CFP or the FCS Playoffs, we have you covered.
Let's dive into our college football best bets and NCAAF picks for Saturday's postseason games at both the FBS and FCS levels.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of College Football Playoff and FCS Playoffs games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
| 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
SMU vs. Penn State Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
SMU gets a second lease on life after playing arguably its worst first half of the season in the ACC Championship against Clemson. The Mustangs snuck their way into the playoff and now square off against Penn State on the road.
The lights seemed to be too bright in that ACC title game, but I’m not sure they will be this time around. SMU seems to have learned from its mistakes, and I feel it's going to show up ready to go here.
The defensive metrics look really solid for SMU. The Mustangs rank 15th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 14th in EPA per Play allowed. The SMU front seven has secured 40 sacks this season and 95 tackles for loss, and it will be critical for it to pick up Havoc plays in the Penn State backfield.
The Mustangs' run defense should be able to hold up here, as they're restricting teams to under 100 rushing yards per game with a defensive team average of 2.7 yards per carry.
I could see the game plan for SMU playing out similar to how USC and Bowling Green had success against the Nittany Lions by spreading this defense out.
The Mustangs have been really solid in the red zone, cashing in on 49-of-56 red-zone possessions with 38 touchdowns.
As long as they can avoid catastrophic mistakes, there’s a real chance they could be in this game late with a chance to win it. Grab those points.
Pick: SMU +9 (Play to +7.5)
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SMU vs. Penn State Pick
By Doug Ziefel
We have yet to see a big move down on the total for this game, but it should close below this number. Both SMU and Penn State come into this matchup off atypical scoring outputs in their respective conference championship games.
Both teams were trailing and forced to come from behind. SMU fought back to tie it against Clemson, while Penn State came up one score short of Oregon.
Regardless, these two teams have schemes that are different from those we saw last, and those schemes should be more prevalent in this matchup.
Penn State is the team that should control the tempo here. The Nittany Lions run the ball at the 34th-highest rate in the country and have had great success doing so, ranking 15th in yards per rush.
However, their ground game will be challenged by an SMU defense that has been fantastic against the run. The Mustangs sit third in yards per rush allowed.
I expect Penn State to maintain success with volume on the ground rather than chunk plays. That, combined with its rank of 105th in seconds per play, equals long, methodical drives that may not wind up as points on the scoreboard.
On the other side, the Penn State defense will be the toughest unit the Mustangs have faced all season. While SMU has shown it can be effective with an uptempo attack, we may see it stifled here.
SMU's offense has been powered by Kevin Jennings' rise under center. His mobility and big arm have created plenty of big plays through the air, but Penn State is not a team that has surrendered big plays, ranking ninth in EPA per dropback.
Additionally, when teams sustain success against them, they don't let it show up on the scoreboard. Penn State ranks sixth in points per Eckel and 36th in opponent red-zone scoring rate.
Pick: Under 54 (Play to 52.5)
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South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
South Dakota State has consistently ranked atop the FCS in most major defensive metrics all season, and features four all-conference players in the secondary.
The Jackrabbits are surrendering just 13 points per game and 280 yards per game on the season.
Over the last four weeks, the opposition has achieved just 58 yards per game on the ground and 2.3 yards per carry on average.
North Dakota State struggled at times against Abilene Christian to assert itself physically, and we saw a somewhat lackluster effort last week against Mercer on the ground. That's not going to cut it this week against the Jackrabbits.
When these two squared off in the first meeting, South Dakota State had some internal friction at the time surrounding play-calling and how offensive skill-position players were being utilized.
That has worked itself out for the better, and breakout sophomore receiver Griffin Wilde has become more involved early in games. He has two receiving touchdowns in each of the two playoff games and will be a real X-factor here.
North Dakota State grades out poorly in PFF Tackling grade, and the South Dakota State running backs can create missed tackles in space at a high rate. This will be a tough assignment for the Bison front seven.
This Dakota Marker rematch will be a highly competitive game throughout, but I fully expect South Dakota State to capitalize in situations they were unable to in the first meeting. The Jacks win this one by a touchdown or more.
Pick: South Dakota State -3 (Play to -4)
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Clemson vs. Texas Best Bet
By John Feltman
Texas will not only win this game, but it will absolutely dominate.
For my money, this Texas defense is the best unit in the country. I know it looked vulnerable against Georgia in its two matchups, but the metrics show how real this unit is.
Texas ranks in the 99th percentile in these key defensive metrics:
- Havoc
- Passing Success Rate allowed
- Pass Explosiveness allowed
- Rush Explosiveness allowed
- Explosiveness allowed
That's extremely impressive.
Plus, it doesn’t help that Clemson starting running back Phil Mafah is banged up. I don’t see how the Tigers find enough consistent offense to cover the number.
Additionally, who has Clemson played? It got embarrassed by Georgia at a neutral site, lost to Louisville at home and lost to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
The schedule is not impressive, and it nearly blew a massive lead to SMU in the ACC Championship. The Tigers are in for a rude awakening against the Longhorns.
The Texas offense has been struggling, and a lack of a consistent running game has hurt it. I believe backup quarterback Arch Manning gives the Longhorns a much better chance to win it all, but Quinn Ewers should do enough against the Tigers defense to lead his team to a comfortable win in Austin.
Speaking of which, Clemson really struggles to prevent explosives through the air, which won't help its offense in the game. Expect an all-out effort from the Horns in a comfortable win.
Pick: Texas -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
