Saturday's College Football Best Bets for Conference Championships
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Welcome to Championship Saturday.
Today's slate of college football games features six conference championships, as well as the continuation of the FCS Playoffs.
With so much action going on, our college football writers came through with six picks for Iowa State vs. Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship, Ohio vs. Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship, Tarleton State vs. South Dakota in the FCS Playoffs, Marshall vs. Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship and Penn State vs. Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.
So, whether you're looking to bet a game with a College Football Playoff spot on the line or a battle between top-three teams already locked in, we have you covered.
Let's dive into our college football best bets and picks for the conference championship games on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State Best Bet, Pick
By Greg Liodice
I surely didn’t expect it, but the Big 12 Championship game will not include BYU.
We head to Dallas, where the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Iowa State Cyclones — two programs coming off massive wins to solidify their position in this championship game.
I foresee this game following the trends.
Arizona State is listed as a 2-point favorite, and when it’s listed as a favorite, the over has hit six out of seven times. Iowa State has only been listed as an underdog once this season, and the over hit.
The total is listed at 49.5 on all books.
The Cyclones have proven to get in blow-for-blow battles with their opponents, reaching that 49.5 threshold in four consecutive games. Arizona State has surpassed that mark in four out of its past five games.
These programs specialize in something different, where the Cyclones like to sling it with two 1,000-yard receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. It plays perfectly into their strengths given that ASU has allowed 227 yards per game through the air and ranks 86th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.
Meanwhile, the Sun Devils are carried by running back Cam Skattebo, who’s been a man on a mission all season. Last week against Arizona, he ran for a staggering 177 yards and stomped on BYU with 147.
Iowa State has proven to be poor against the run, allowing 173.6 rushing yards per game this season and ranking 97th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Take the over in this battle. I’m anticipating both squads to prey on each other’s weaknesses for an exciting battle in Dallas.
Pick: Over 49.5 (Play to 50.5)
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Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Best Bet, Pick
The Battle of the Bricks becomes the Battle for the MAC Championship with Miami (OH) looking to become the first back-to-back MAC title winner since Northern Illinois in 2011-12.
The RedHawks enter this game red hot playing their best football of the season. They have won seven straight games and have outscored their opponents, 223-90, over that stretch.
Quarterback Brett Gabbert finally stayed healthy enough to play all 12 games for the first time in his career and is playing his best football right now. Gabbert has 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year, and over the last seven games, he has 16 touchdowns with just three interceptions.
Gabbert has three talented receivers to get the ball to, and Keyon Mozee was the only player in the MAC to rush for over 1,000 yards this season. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry and has gone over 100 yards in six of the last seven games.
Miami’s defense is the best in the MAC, allowing just 17.3 points per game and surrendering 4.6 yards per play. It hasn't allowed more than 21 points during its win streak as the defense has continued to get better throughout the season.
I don’t want to take away from Ohio’s great season, but if you look at the MAC standings and start from the bottom, the Bobcats beat the six worst teams in the conference. The best team Ohio faced was Miami (OH), and the RedHawks won by a score of 30-20 back in October.
Gabbert threw three touchdown passes, and Mozee rushed for 111 yards on seven yards per carry.
The RedHawks defense picked off Parker Navarro twice and held him to just 88 yards passing and 38 yards rushing. Ohio managed just 3.3 yards per carry on the ground.
The Bobcats also scored a touchdown with six seconds left to make it a 10-point game. It was 30-6 halfway through the fourth quarter, so the final score makes it look a lot closer than it was. Miami (OH) crushed them.
We have seen this Miami (OH) team really turn a corner, and it's playing like a championship team right now.
The offense is strong, and the defense looks dominant again — especially against the run, which will be the key in this matchup. As we saw in the first meeting between these two, if Ohio can’t run the ball successfully, it's in trouble.
Pick: Miami (OH) -1.5
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Tarleton State vs. South Dakota Best Bet, Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Tarleton State came into this season with high expectations in the UAC, but early-season injuries and poor defensive play held this team back much of the way.
The Texans still slipped into the playoffs and defeated FCS non-scholarship Pioneer Football League champion Drake in the first round of the FCS Playoffs last week.
Their reward: a trip to the USD DakotaDome to face one of the premier defensive teams in FCS and a group of Coyotes ready to take the next step with their program.
USD has its strongest team in program history and a group that has played amazing football this season. At 9-2 with close losses against Wisconsin and South Dakota State, this group has proven it belongs at the top of FCS.
The 'Yotes are incredible in the defensive trenches and have registered 27 sacks and 55 tackles for loss this season, along with countless other pressures on opposing quarterbacks.
As this game wears on, I can see USD living in the Tarleton State backfield and would expect virtually no rushing game for the Texans to rely on.
South Dakota also played exceptional third-down defense and has allowed just 17 red-zone touchdowns all season.
USD ranks No. 1 in PFF run blocking in FCS, and I would expect the offensive line to open the lanes for Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis all day. The 'Yotes running back duo has combined for 1,919 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns on the season and should feast in this matchup.
Tarleton State hasn't played an FCS team rated anywhere near USD in defensive metrics. And while its offensive numbers look solid, it's been feasting on exceedingly weak defenses.
This is a massive step up in class for the Texans on the road, and while they notched a nice playoff win last week, the athletes they'll be lining up against this week are expected to provide a much stiffer challenge.
Lay it with the 'Yotes, who should win this one by more than three touchdowns.
Pick: South Dakota -15.5 (Play to -19)
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Marshall vs. Louisiana Best Bet, Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Marshall has been the best covering team in the country this year at 10-2 ATS, and the Thundering Herd are one major collapse against Georgia Southern away from being a perfect 8-0 in league play this year.
The Herd showed plenty of resiliency last week, coming back from 17 down in the second half to defeat James Madison on the road in double overtime.
Marshall is averaging 200 yards rushing per game with a 5.2 yards-per-carry average and should be able to move the ball here on the ground against a Louisiana defense that has really given it up on the ground this season.
I look for running back A.J. Turner to have a big day for Marshall.
Louisiana ranks 107th nationally in Offensive Explosiveness, and while Chandler Fields has been serviceable for the Ragin' Cajuns since taking over for injured quarterback Ben Wooldridge, the competition has been weak.
Marshall will provide significantly stronger challenges than Troy or ULM.
The Thundering Herd have been impressive defensively and sport a vastly underrated stop unit. The front seven has registered 34 sacks and 82 tackles for loss on the year, while the secondary has plucked 12 interceptions with 49 pass breakups.
The Cajuns already struggle in explosiveness, and when the windows get tighter and pressure starts to mount, Fields will have to make quick tough decisions and be extremely precise with his throws — something he has not had to do this season up to this point.
A key indicator in this game will be how Marshall’s defense and Louisiana’s offense perform in the red zone. The Ragin' Cajuns have made a habit of stalling out inside the 20-yard line and have scored touchdowns on just 63% of red-zone trips while settling for 18 red-zone field goals.
Marshall has forced field goals or fourth-down stops in the red area at an above-average frequency, and with the pressure it puts on the opposition, it should force the issue here.
I simply don't see a ton of separation between these two teams.
I trust the Thundering Herd's run game and solid defensive play more than I do Louisiana. Grab those points, and settle in for a tight one.
Pick: Marshall +6 (Play to +4.5)
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Penn State vs. Oregon Best Bet, Pick
James Franklin has won a Big Ten title in Indianapolis before, and I think he’s got a real chance to do it again in 2024.
The Nittany Lions should enter this game with house money — they are comfortably in the playoff field, and just seven days ago, they looked like a total long shot to qualify for this game.
The Michigan upset over Ohio State happened, and now PSU has the chance to really cash in.
On the field, Penn State has the horses in the trenches to not only match Oregon but win a lot of those battles.
The PSU defense will be the most balanced and physical unit that Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks have faced, and I think Tom Allen’s unit can generate some pressure on the Oregon quarterback.
Gabriel is nowhere near the same player when he faces pressure, especially given his limited size.
On the other side of the ball, I think Penn State can have success rushing the ball with running back Nicholas Singleton leading the way.
When the Nittany Lions need a big play through the air, there are very few in the country as reliable as tight end Tyler Warren, who can do just about everything.
Ultimately, I expect this to be a very competitive game between two teams I grade out very similarly. As a result, I will gladly back the team catching over a field goal that should come out inspired.
Give me the Nits +3.5.
Pick: Penn State +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Penn State vs. Oregon Pick, Best Bet
By John Feltman
I can't believe I'm doing this to myself for the billionth time, but I'm backing James Franklin in a big game. The Nittany Lions should not be 3.5-point underdogs in this spot.
First and foremost, does this count as a big game for James Franklin? It's not, and heading into last weekend, he had no reason to think about his team participating in this game.
Franklin is 3-19 against top-10 teams since he's been the head coach at Penn State, but there's a lot to like about the matchup against Oregon.
Oregon, hypothetically, would be better off losing the game on Saturday, especially since it will give it a much easier path to the semifinals.
The Ducks have had an impressive season thus far, but who have they beaten?
They defeated Boise State by three as 21.5-point favorites and pulled out a late win against Ohio State. They are highly vulnerable, especially on the ground.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will cook up a ton of pre-snap motion and get creative with his run concepts.
The Nittany Lions offense is excellent on the ground, and there's little reason why they can't have success on the ground.
The Ducks' defensive line ranks 79th in EPA/Rush and below the 13th percentile in Defensive Stuff Rate and Line Yards. That's extremely concerning going up against a Nittany Lions team that's 36th in Rush EPA.
Penn State should be able to control the clock with its ground game and lower the number of possessions the Ducks have on offense. Its defense has also been elite all season, and I find it shocking that it's catching more than a field goal here.
I can't help myself here; the number is far too lucrative. Give me Penn State to at least keep it close and cover the number — and perhaps Small Game James will add another Big Ten Championship to his resume.
Pick: Penn State +3.5 (Play to +3)
