College Football Best Bets, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are finally upon us. But before we close New Year's Eve out with No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State, we have four other games in action.
Our college football writers came through with three best bets for Tuesday's games, including picks for Alabama vs. Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl, Louisville vs. Washington in the Sun Bowl and Penn State vs. Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Let's dive into our college football best bets and expert NCAAF picks for the three-game slate on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Alabama vs. Michigan Best Bet, Pick
By Doug Ziefel
After much controversy, the Alabama Crimson Tide are in the ReliaQuest Bowl instead of the College Football Playoff. While you'd think that would lead to opt-outs, many of Alabama's top players say they will be available.
The offense should be motivated and look to start fast against a Michigan defense that will be significantly hampered by opt-outs.
Despite some slow starts this season, the Crimson Tide offense was still one of the most explosive in the country. They finished seventh in points per play and 17th in yards per play.
The other side of the ball also factors into this angle, as the Wolverines offense likely won't do very much. A unit that ranked 100th in points per game and 117th in yards per play will be without its two top rushing and receiving options.
If the Crimson Tide can get upwards of four possessions in the opening half, they should be able to score three times.
Take this over and back the Tide to roll early.
Pick: Alabama 1H Team Total Over 14.5 (Play to 16.5)
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Louisville vs. Washington Best Bet, Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The ACC has been as disappointing as can be this bowl season, going 0-10 against the spread — and this is not the spot to buck the trend.
Louisville has a long list of portal entry players and participation opt-outs, which creates a ton of uncertainty in what we'll see in this matchup.
Starting quarterback Tyler Shough is out, along with the top two wide receivers for the Cardinals. We have five contributors on defense for Louisville also out, which will help make the Washington offense much more effective after the switch it made at quarterback late in the year.
Demond Williams Jr. took over late in the year for Will Rogers and played pretty well despite the offensive line not holding up against Oregon's pass rush.
They should find things easier this go-around, as the Louisville pass rush won't provide as much pressure as Washington has seen the last few games of the season.
Louisville ranked 47th nationally in Defensive Havoc but defensive end Ashton Gillotte won't play, and he's a massive loss along the defensive front. Overall, Louisville has only five sacks in the last five weeks, and Gillotte led the team in tackles for loss and quarterback pressures.
Louisville will have some success here against the Huskies defense on the ground, but I expect UW to lock in on the rushing attack here without the threat of a significant downfield passing attack.
The coverage unit should also perform well here, something it's done most of the season in allowing only a 55% completion percentage and just 13 passing touchdowns.
Washington ranked fifth nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed and 21st in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Based on the current participation report and who these teams have available in their respective arsenals for this bowl game, I can't see anything that warrants Washington being the underdog.
At plus-money, I would grab it on the moneyline and play it all the way to -112.
Pick: Washington ML +105 (Play to -112)
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Penn State vs. Boise State Best Bet, Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Penn State should be able to out-physical this Boise State defense that struggled for a good majority of the season.
The Nittany Lions' offensive line should be able to have a ton of success in early downs against a Broncos that ranked 107th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 122nd nationally in preventing explosiveness.
The Broncos can't defend the power-rushing attack that will be thrown at them in this one. I look for Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to get the ball into the second level before the defenders get a hand on them — then tackling these two backs will be an issue here.
Boise State ranks very low in PFF Tackling grades and 88th in rushing explosiveness allowed.
There should be very little pressure put on Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, as Boise State ranks 79th in Effective Pass Rush and 118th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
Defensively, Boise was shredded through the air numerous times over the course of the season, and once it's evident that a seven-man front is not enough to defend the rush, Penn State will use play-action pass off of the power run looks.
This should prove effective with Tyler Warren and Harrison Wallace being wide open for chunk plays in the passing game. Boise State defensively ranks just 125th in overall EPA Per Play and 134th (dead last) in FBS in Finishing Drives allowed.
Boise State is going to have some success offensively and should be able to move the ball and find opportunities to score, further keeping the pressure on Penn State to execute offensively.
We've seen that James Franklin knows the number and is no stranger to the late-game punch-in to cover or exceed the total. I wouldn't expect kneels at the end of this one if the opportunity comes up.
The full-game over should be in play here, and I like the Penn State team total at anything under 35.
Pick: Penn State Team Total Over 33.5 (Play to 34.5)
