Welcome to Championship Week.
Friday's college football slate features three conference title games — Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship, Tulane vs. Army in the AAC Championship and UNLV vs. Boise State in the Mountain West Championship — and our staff came through with picks for all three games.
So, whether you're looking to bet on what's essentially a College Football Playoff game or one of the more under-the-radar conference title games, we have you covered.
Check out our college football best bets and NCAAF picks for Friday's conference championship games on Dec. 6.
College Football Best Bets for Friday, Dec. 6
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of NCAAF conference championship games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. |
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Best Bet
By Greg Liodice
He’s the most interesting mascot in all of college football.
Big Red.
It’s been a real solid season for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, as they tied for first place with Jacksonville State for Conference USA supremacy.
Now in the second consecutive game, both programs square off for the CUSA title.
Last week’s battle was a scrappy one, with the Hilltoppers coming out with a 19-17 win, but I anticipate them pulling away even more this time.
WKU quarterback Caden Veltkamp has had a dynamic season, completing 67% of his passes with 22 passing touchdowns since taking over for TJ Finley.
Last week, he continued that by throwing for 301 yards, but the Hilltoppers struggled to find the end zone.
Additionally, Western Kentucky throws the ball at a top-15 rate, with the nation's 59th-best Success Rate. It could be better, it could be worse, but a lot of its offense comes through the air.
Jax State is a bit different than its counterparts, whereas most of its offense comes from its ground game. Tre Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff have dominated, combining for 35 rushing touchdowns, including 20 for Stewart.
These programs are quite similar in their playing style, which makes sense as to why it was such a close-knit game last week. Each specializes in something different, while the defense is nonexistent.
Ultimately, this will be a game of who caves first, and I think it’s Jax State.
The Gamecocks are statistically the worst Passing Downs defense in the FBS, rank 128th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 127th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The Hilltoppers aren’t much better, but they’re at least a smidge better against the run, where Jax State thrives.
With an advanced look at each other, I think Western Kentucky gets the upper hand and quiets the crowd in AmFirst Stadium.
Pick: Western Kentucky +5 (Play to +4)
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Best Bet #2
By Joshua Nunn
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State square off in a rematch of a game that took place last week. Western Kentucky kept its conference championship hopes alive in a game filled with red-zone miscues, fourth-down stops and field goals.
The Hilltoppers kicked four field goals, the last coming with three seconds left to grab a 19-17 win to set up this rematch.
I really like the under in this matchup at 58.
I can understand why this total is set as high as it is with WKU deploying an efficient passing attack and Jacksonville State running an extremely quick tempo. But we have unique circumstances in this game that could halt the pace and scoring.
Jax-State quarterback Tyler Huff was injured on Saturday and is questionable to play this week with a lower leg injury. Huff is a dynamic runner who has racked up 1,176 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns to go along with above-average production as a passer.
The injury is a high ankle “tweak,” which will likely inhibit the effectiveness of the running quarterback and should also affect how fast the Gamecocks play.
With an injured Huff or backup Logan Smothers at the helm — along with the magnitude of this game — I can certainly see a normal tempo here from Jacksonville State as possessions become more and more critical.
We saw some of this last week, as JSU ran just 60 offensive plays.
There's extreme familiarity between these two teams given that they just played last week. I believe this benefits the defense on both sides, as they'll be lining up against the same scheme and offensive tendencies.
Western Kentucky held up fairly well against the run last week, holding Jax-State to its second-lowest rushing output of the season in conference play. The Toppers held JSU to just one rush greater than 20 yards in the game.
Defensively, Jacksonville State locked down against the run and did well to limit explosives against WKU in the passing game.
This will be a really important game for both programs. We'll see a heavy run attack from JSU and dink-and-dunk passing from WKU.
The injury to Huff is massive and will inhibit the Gamecocks' offensive attack from an explosiveness perspective. The defense should also have a really good idea of what they're up against.
I think this total is a tad too high, so go low.
Pick: Under 58 (Play to 57)
Tulane vs. Army Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
I love Tulane in this matchup on Friday night, and we're certainly getting the best line after last week's results.
Army took the country by storm the first two months of the season, starting 9-0 and deploying a dynamic offensive attack headlined by quarterback Bryson Daily and his 25 rushing touchdowns.
Army has averaged 313 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry on the season, but the output and explosiveness have dropped significantly in the last four weeks.
Meanwhile, Jon Sumrall-coached teams have faced the option three times in recent years and have held those opponents to just nine total points in those three games, including two shutouts.
Tulane has already faced Navy this year and shut that option attack out in a 35-0 victory. Tulane surrendered only 100 net rushing yards on 2.9 yards per attempt, as the Midshipmen racked up just eight first downs.
Sumrall's Troy team faced Army last year and held the Black Knights to just 3.5 yards per carry and zero points. This staff mentioned preparing for the triple option every week on Mondays this year in preparation for two conference opponents running this offense, and I can see the preparation paying off here.
The Green Wave defense has also been excellent this year on third and fourth down, allowing just 31% of those attempts to be successfully converted. Army is really going to have to have excellent execution on every possession in order to stay on the field and extend drives.
The Cadets have been excellent in the red zone this year, but just six of their last 11 trips inside the 20-yard line have ended in the end zone.
Tulane has allowed just 14-of-32 red-zone possessions to end in pay dirt, so Army is likely to be faced with tough decisions in goal-to-go situations and will likely have to wrestle with fourth-down attempts or kicking short field goals.
Army has been a great story all season and a “play-on” team most of the way, but the Black Knights have feasted on the weaker teams in the AAC all season.
There's a massive talent disparity here between the Green Wave and Black Knights, and with the familiarity in the scheme, I fully expect Army's offensive platoon to be somewhat neutralized in this one.
Lay it with the Wave at -4.5.
Pick: Tulane -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
UNLV vs. Boise State Best Bet
I hate to do this because I love this Boise State team and think it would be awesome to see a Group of Five team earn a bye in the College Football Playoff, but I think UNLV wins this game.
The Rebels' only two losses this season came against Boise and in overtime to a Top 25 Syracuse team.
Ashton Jeanty is having as dominant of a season as we've seen in a long time, but the UNLV defense held him to 3.8 yards per carry, his least efficient output of the season by far.
Jeanty wasn't held below 4.8 yards per carry in any other game this year.
The Broncos won that first meeting by five points, but they managed to go 4-of-4 on fourth down, and UNLV missed a field goal and threw a bad interception that gave Boise State the ball at the 7-yard line.
The Rebels put up 6.3 yards per play on the Boise State defense, and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams ran for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Williams has 17 passing touchdowns on the season and nine rushing scores, and both he and Jai’Den Thomas averaged over 5.9 yards per carry on the year.
We know the Las Vegas defense thrives on taking risks and forcing turnovers. It's fifth in the country in turnover margin and has 17 interceptions in 12 games.
Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown 21 touchdowns with just three interceptions this season, yet he has thrown 12 turnover-worthy plays, including one against UNLV. He's just itching for a turnover, and the Rebels should be able to cheat against him.
Madsen also has just six big-time throws all year and is not somebody who's going to take the top off a defense.
UNLV had a great plan to stack the box and take away Jeanty with stud linebacker Jackson Woodard in the middle. It should be able to do that again in this one.
The Rebels have allowed just 3.2 rushing yards per carry all season, and they have allowed only one rushing touchdown since Halloween.
Boise State won this matchup in the Mountain West Championship last season, but I think UNLV gets revenge here and takes it the title to Las Vegas.
Pick: UNLV +4.5 (Play to +4)
UNLV vs. Boise State Best Bet #2
Yes, this game is on the blue turf in Boise, but I like the Rebels to cover here, as they have a great chance of winning outright.
Boise State's play has not been all that encouraging over the last three to four weeks.
The Broncos only beat Nevada by a touchdown at home, were in a back-and-forth affair with San Jose State, and needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to escape against Wyoming in Laramie.
This is a team that peaked earlier in the season and has regressed a bit due to some injuries and inconsistent play from quarterback Maddux Madsen.
Meanwhile, UNLV enters this game playing great football with double revenge on its mind.
The Rebels lost to BSU in the MWC Championship game a year ago and then also fell, 29-24, to Boise in late October in Vegas in a game they easily could have won.
I think UNLV is the more physical team in the trenches right now, and head coach Barry Odom should make plenty of adjustments from the first meeting.
I also think UNLV has a special teams advantage, which could be important in a tight game.
Lastly, all of the pressure is on Boise given all of the national pundits have crowned this team the Group of Five representative in the CFP, and many have started talking about the likelihood of a first-round bye.
Give me UNLV to come in loose and take control of this game early. I like the Rebs to cover and give them a great chance of pulling off the outright upset.
Pick: UNLV +4.5 (Play to +4)