College Football Best Bets, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 5:45 p.m. | |
  | 9:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
College football bowl season rolls on with an eight-game slate — the biggest of bowl season — on Saturday, Dec. 28.
With so much action to choose from, our college football writers hand-picked three best bets for Saturday's NCAAF bowl slate.
Our best bets start with the Pop-Tarts Bowl between Iowa State and Miami before we move to the Military Bowl for an in-state rivalry between East Carolina and NC State.
Then, to close it all out, we'll turn our attention to the Independence Bowl — a matchup between Louisiana Tech and Army at 9:15 p.m. ET.
Let's dive into our college football best bets and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, Dec. 28.
Iowa State vs. Miami Best Bet, Pick
By Alex Hinton
Miami opened this matchup as a short underdog — but that was with the expectation that Heisman finalist Cam Ward would sit out Miami’s bowl game.
However, Ward is expected to play, and now Miami is a 4.5-point favorite. It will also give him the opportunity to lead this explosive offense one last time.
This season, Miami led the nation in scoring offense (44.2 PPG) and total offense (538.3 yards) while ranking second in passing yards per game (359.3).
Miami has scored 36 points in 11-of-12 games this season. It certainly was not the offense’s fault as to why Miami missed the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, Iowa State’s defense is typically stingy under Matt Campbell, and it's allowing 21.5 points per game this season. However, there were some questionable performances to close the season.
Iowa State allowed at least 28 points in four of its final seven games. That includes 35 points to UCF and 45 points to both Kansas and Arizona State.
Both Kansas and Arizona State exploited ISU on the ground, running for over 200 yards. Star backs Devin Neal of Kansas and Cam Skattebo of Arizona State both ran for over 100 yards and scored at least two touchdowns.
While Ward may lead the way for Miami, it's also built to punish ISU on the ground with a physical offensive line and strong backfield.
Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher Jr. both ran for over five yards per carry and combined for 17 touchdowns. With 15 bowl practices, it would not be a surprise if explosive true freshman Jordan Lyle (8.1 YPC) got a bit more work as well.
Either way, Miami should find a ton of success on offense in this matchup. This line may be a touchdown short, and you can also back the Hurricanes for 38 points at +200 at FanDuel.
Pick: Miami Team Total Over 30.5 (-130 · Play to -145)
| | |
East Carolina vs. NC State Best Bet, Pick
By Joshua Nunn
East Carolina gets a rare opportunity to square off against regional rival NC State in the Go Bowling Military Bowl.
The matchup for ECU's defense should keep the Pirates in this game, and I'm struggling to see NC State has a ton of success here with limited personnel and offensive line struggles that have plagued the Wolfpack much of the season.
ECU ranks 18th nationally in Defensive Havoc registered, and the Pirates have secured 88 tackles for loss and 20 sacks. The run defense has been really solid the last five weeks of the regular season, allowing just 134 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.
The Pirates' stop unit ranks fifth nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush and seventh in Rushing Success Rate allowed. There are significant concerns here surrounding how NC State is going to run the football.
I would expect a lot of the offensive responsibility to fall on quarterback CJ Bailey, who took over for Grayson McCall halfway through the season.
The freshman quarterback has been serviceable, but the offensive line has allowed 15 sacks over the last five weeks along with 86 tackles for loss this season.
Plus, star wide receiver KC Concepcion has opted out of this bowl game, which will further limit how effective this Wolfpack attack will be.
ECU quarterback Katin Houser was wildly inconsistent, but the Pirates should have success against a Wolfpack defense that allowed 36 points per game over the last month of the regular season.
NC State really struggled to contain big plays this year, ranking just 121st nationally in explosiveness allowed.
While currently on the bowl game depth chart, NC State has three banged-up cornerbacks, and I would expect ECU to take deep shots frequently in this one.
These two schools are located just 83 miles apart and really don't like each other. We should see a hard-fought, spirited game on both sides, but I can't see enough separation to warrant laying more than a touchdown in a game that I see coming down to the wire.
NC State is missing a lot of important personnel, and I fully expect ECU to show up with a chance to win this game in the fourth quarter. Grab those points.
Pick: East Carolina +7.5 (Play to +7)
| | |
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Best Bet, Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Army has the service academy situational advantage here. It doesn't have to deal with an abundance of portal entries and opt-outs that have made postseason play difficult for many teams.
While running back Kanye Udoh has transferred to Arizona State, the rest of the Black Knight offense remains intact here.
Quarterback Bryson Daily figures to have a big day against a Louisiana Tech defense that will be without two starters on the defensive line and a couple of linebackers out with injuries.
Louisiana Tech ranked 50th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush and 86th in Rushing Explosiveness allowed this year. While not horrible, the rush numbers were aided by a Conference USA schedule that routinely featured some of the worst rushing attacks in FBS.
There's no recent history of Louisiana Tech facing a predominantly triple-option rushing attack, and on short notice, this assignment will be tough for the Bulldogs.
Army leads the nation in Offensive Success Rate and ranks third in Havoc allowed. The rushing attack also averaged 300 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry on the season.
Army was only limited offensively when it was significantly outclassed by Notre Dame and a Navy team that's familiar with the scheme. We should see an output by the Black Knights' rushing attack that surpasses 300 yards once again.
Louisiana Tech really struggled at times on offense this season and ranks just 131st nationally in Offensive Success Rate.
The Bulldogs allowed 39 sacks and 79 tackles for loss and found themselves consistently in unfavorable third-and-long situations. If they can't stay on the field, we could see quick possessions and short fields for Army.
Look for the Black Knights to dominate the time of possession and wear down this Louisiana Tech defense in the second half. Army has been highly efficient in the red zone all season, scoring on 54-of-58 possessions with 42 touchdowns.
I see the Black Knights cashing in here to surpass their team total.
Pick: Army Team Total Over 29.5 (Play to 30.5)
