College Football Best Bets for Week 13
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Week 13 of the college football is here. So, wouldn't it be rude if we didn't dive into some best bets?
On the second-to-last full college football Saturday of the season, our staff came through with three best bets, including picks for Wake Forest vs. Miami, Iowa vs. Maryland and North Carolina vs. Boston College.
Continue reading for all three college football best bets and noon NCAAF picks — and be sure to check out our other top predictions for Saturday's afternoon and evening games.
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Wake Forest vs. Miami Best Bet & Pick
By John Feltman
This is a golden opportunity to buy low on the Hurricanes offense after a disappointing effort at Georgia Tech before their bye week.
They need style points in case they're embarrassed in the ACC Championship game, and they have the perfect matchup to ensure that happens.
The Canes offense is special, ranking inside the top 15 in all of the following metrics:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Havoc Allowed
- Finishing Drives
Meanwhile, the Wake Forest defense has been a disaster all season long. It's one of the worst defensive units in the Power 4. The Deacons rank outside the top 100 in the following defensive categories:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate Allowed
- Line Yards Allowed
- Havoc
- Quality and Finishing Drives Allowed
- PFF Tackling
The only thing going for them is that they do a solid job of limiting explosive plays, but that won't matter much.
The Canes have all the tools to destroy the Deacons, especially after a tough loss and a bye week. The situational spot is working in their favor, and the offense won't not face any resistance against the Wake defense.
Miami head coach Mario Cristobal realizes that his team must put on a show for the rest of the regular season in case they slip up in the ACC Championship.
With that said, I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas until their offense puts up video game numbers.
Pick: Miami Team Total Over 44.5 (Play to 45)
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Iowa vs. Maryland Best Bet & Pick
I don’t think the Iowa vs. Maryland total gets to 45, and if it does, it’ll be more of an edge on under.
The "Windy Unders" PRO System specifically alerted the Iowa vs. Maryland clash as a “weather” game on Saturday of college football Week 13.
Action PRO models can oftentimes account for various filters, but the wind-based trend simply looks for games with wind speeds at certain ranges.
College Park featured snow on Friday leading up to Saturday. It won’t be freezing for Iowa vs. Maryland, but here’s where the edge becomes even more attractive: Our director of subscription and PRO savant PJ Walsh found that games under the “Windy Unders” trend (cashing 56.6% unders) boosts up north of 60% when we filter for colder games.
Plus, Maryland ranks top-20 nationally in Defensive Line Yards, when it comes to stopping Hawkeyes running back Kaleb Johnson, the nation's third-leading rusher.
Iowa, meanwhile, sits No. 6 in the country in PFF Coverage and Tackle grades well.
The Terrapins are admittedly average in tackling and in the middle eight but shouldn’t be too overwhelmed by an Iowa offense ranking bottom-10 in college football in yards per completion.
Pick: Under 44.5 (Play to 43.5)
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North Carolina vs. Boston College Best Bet & Pick
By Joshua Nunn
I was extremely impressed with how Boston College competed last week going toe-to-toe with SMU on the road. Grayson James stepped in nicely at quarterback and actually played pretty well for the Eagles.
Boston College should be able to move the football here against North Carolina. The game plan should once again be to run the football.
This is a pretty good matchup for the Boston College defense — so long as it can hold up against the run. The BC secondary ranks 17th nationally in Defensive Passing Down EPA Per Play and 14th in Passing Down Success Rate and should be able to limit big-play pass explosives in third-and-long situations.
This is going to be a wildly physical football game played in cold and windy conditions, and I like the matchup for the BC offensive line. It should control the line of scrimmage here and impose its will on UNC's defensive front.
BC needs a win to unlock bowl eligibility, and I expect this bunch to be extremely motivated to get there. Take the Eagles to win outright.
Pick: Boston College ML +120 (Play to +105)
