Friday College Football Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
College football bowl season is winding down, but it's not over yet.
Friday's slate features four more games, and our NCAAF writers came through with five best bets for two of the best games on the slate: Notre Dame vs. Oregon State and Ohio State vs. Missouri.
Read on for all five of our best bets for Friday's college football bowl games — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
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Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame -6
While Notre Dame will be without Sam Hartman and a chunk of other offensive starters in this matchup, I still think the value lies with the Irish here.
Steve Angeli will make his first career start at quarterback, and he has shown some promise in previous stints as a backup.
Angeli will be able to lean on a stable of talented young running backs, including Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
On the Oregon State side, it’s hard to see how the Beavers move the ball with the amount of roster turnover over the last few weeks.
Head coach Jonathan Smith is off to East Lansing, starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and talented backup Aidan Chiles are both in the portal and star running back Damien Martinez will not play.
Additionally, two of the main receiving threats, wide receiver Anthony Gould and tight end Jack Velling, have both opted out of the game to prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft.
While Notre Dame will have a lot of new faces on offense, the Irish defense will be largely intact, and that unit was very sound across the board all year.
Expect the Irish to control the clock in this game and pull away, leaning on its running game and overall roster depth.
I’d take ND all the way up to -7.
Pick: Notre Dame -6 (Play to -7)
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Notre Dame -6
As we head into the Sun Bowl, the end of the season could not have been more different for these two programs.
After winning six of the first seven games of the season, Oregon State slumped at the finish line, dropping three of its last five.
On the other side, Notre Dame finished strong, emerging victorious in four of its last five, including blowouts against Wake Forest and Stanford.
As for the commonalities headed into El Paso, well, both teams are dealing with a plethora of opt-outs.
Both teams will be missing their starting quarterbacks and running backs from the regular season. Most importantly, Oregon State will be without its head coach, Jonathan Smith, who left to take the head-coaching job at Michigan State.
While opt-outs are rampant at both programs, the continuity of leadership at Notre Dame is extremely important in this game. This game will effectively serve as a tryout or perhaps a pre-spring game for the Fighting Irish, who are still stacked with talent.
Over the last three years (2021-23), Notre Dame has finished 12th, seventh and ninth in national recruiting class rankings. This compares to Oregon State finishing 49th, 53rd and 109th in the rankings for the same periods, respectively.
As we deal with the depths of the roster in this one, it's clear that Notre Dame is a much more talented team.
Lastly, in these games that are unclear from a personnel standpoint, I like backing the better defense. Notre Dame comes into the Sun Bowl with a defensive unit that ranks in the top 10 in total defense (eighth, 282.9 YPG), scoring defense (eighth, 16.6 PPG) and passing defense (fourth, 154.2 YPG).
Even with discord amongst the roster, I like backing the Freeman-led Fighting Irish to showcase enough talent to get the win and cover. I recommend betting the Irish at -6.5 or better.
Pick: Notre Dame -6 (Play to -7)
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Oregon State Team Total Under 17.5
It’s always darkest right before dawn, and while this is the Sun Bowl, Oregon State’s roster is looking pretty dim.
In case you missed it, Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith took the Michigan State job after the season ended.
As a nice parting gift, he stripped the Beavers roster of some of its best players, and others entered the transfer portal to spend their remaining eligibility at a program that won’t be rebuilding with a new coach.
In the wake of all the departures, Oregon State will be without its two top quarterbacks, its starting running back, its No. 2 and 3 pass-catchers, three starting offensive linemen, two starting cornerbacks, a starting safety, a starting linebacker and even its kicker. Goodness.
The biggest losses will be running back Damien Martinez and the offensive linemen for a run-heavy Beavers offense that ranked fourth in Rush Success Rate during the regular season and was one of two Pac-12 teams to average more than five yards per carry.
Oregon State’s third-string quarterback Ben Gulbranson will start against the Irish after having thrown one pass in 2023. Gulbranson started eight games last season, finishing the year with a 62.4% completion percentage and a 9:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Notre Dame is dealing with a mass exodus of its own on the offensive side of the ball, but outside of two starting cornerbacks and linebacker Marist Liufau, the Irish defense that finished eighth in the country in total defense is largely intact.
There are just too many pieces missing on the Oregon State offense. Gulbranson didn’t exactly set the world on fire enough in 2022 to warrant optimism in this matchup.
I’d be shocked if this shell of an offense found the end zone more than once, leaving plenty of value on this number.
Pick: Oregon State Team Total Under 17.5 (Play to 17)
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Missouri vs. Ohio State
Missouri +4.5
By John Feltman
I can’t quite figure out the steam on this number, but I’m going to assume it’s just public money flooding to back Ohio State as less than a 3-point favorite.
With quarterback Kyle McCord heading out to Western New York to a college with uniforms that represent his true pumpkin characteristics, that’s just the short list of Buckeyes who will not be playing in this game.
A lot of Buckeyes announced over the last couple of days that they will be playing in this game, including a few key offensive and defensive starters. However, I still don’t buy that they're going to be fired up for this game.
It’s entirely possible that head coach Ryan Day is going to use this game as a rallying cry, considering he has lost to Michigan three years in a row. But I don’t buy any of this team.
Unsurprisingly, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn't practiced this week and will likely opt out of this game, so the Buckeyes will already be thin in the receiving corps.
Quarterback Devin Brown will make the start, and he was mainly used in running packages throughout the year, so we really don’t know what to expect from this offense.
This is a massive, massive game for Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Almost everybody is available for the Tigers, which tells me they want to make a huge statement on a big stage on Friday evening.
Throwing out all of the metrics out of the window, motivation is the most important handicap of this game. Not for nothing, this is a Tigers team that should have beaten Georgia earlier in the season, and they blew a big lead against LSU as well.
Maybe I’m dead wrong and I should pay attention to this massive steam from the market. But I think this is a market overreaction to all of the players who announced they were playing for the Buckeyes. And quite frankly, these two teams at full-strength aren't head and shoulders above the other.
Drinkwitz is here to make a statement, and I love that they’ve had almost a month to prepare for this game. Give me the Tigers all day catching over four points.
Pick: Missouri +4.5 (Play to +3)
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Missouri +4.5
By Greg Liodice
Maybe I’m riding the Missouri train too hard, but I see potential here. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz is building something really special in Columbia. Including players who entered the transfer portal, Mizzou will have all of its starters in the Cotton Bowl, minus a couple of injured players on defense.
Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord entered the portal and then quickly committed to Syracuse, opening the door for sophomore Devin Brown to make his first career start.
You know the power the Buckeyes bring. Projected top-five pick still could play Marvin Harrison Jr., while Emeka Egbuka has already committed to playing. They have one of the more explosive passing attacks in college football. However, everything we’ve seen from them is a far cry from what we’re used to.
The running game is unspectacular, ranking 46th in Success Rate, 68th in PPA and 120th in explosiveness. It plays perfectly for a Missouri that ranked 32nd in rushing yards allowed.
Beyond defending the run game, the Tigers are more than capable, ranking 22nd in Success Rate.
They have a well-rounded corps in linebackers Ty’Ron Hopper and Chuck Hicks, but Hopper won't play due to injury. Defensive backs Kris Abrams-Draine and Jaylon Carlies have also combined for six interceptions.
I just see a ton of hope for the Tigers here and love that Drinkwitz has built a culture that has allowed his players to go all in. In an era where players rightfully look after their future, you rarely see players who have transferred or declared for the draft opt in for a bowl game.
Momentum is on Missouri’s side. The same cannot be said for Ohio State.
Pick: Missouri +4.5 (Play to +3)
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