Saturday Night College Football Best Bets and Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been another great day of college football (isn't that always the case), but it's not over yet — in fact, it's far from over.
Our college football writers hand-picked three best bets for Saturday night's games, including picks for Washington vs. No. 6 Penn State, No. 9 BYU vs. Utah and Utah State vs. Washington State.
So, whether you're looking to bet a cross-country Big Ten battle or an in-state rivalry featuring a top-10 team late into the night, we have you covered.
Read on for our Saturday night college football best bets for Week 11 — and be sure to check out our other picks for Saturday's noon and afternoon kickoff windows.
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Washington vs. Penn State Best Bet: Back Nittany Lions
Washington’s reward for a fourth-quarter comeback over USC? A 2,600-mile trip across the country to one of the most hostile atmospheres in college football.
This is a brutal spot for the Huskies, who have to walk into the teeth of 110,000 fans for Penn State’s annual "White Out" game.
Making matters worse, both the fans and the Penn State team should be juiced, looking for redemption from the Nittany Lions’ first loss of the season last week against Ohio State.
While Penn State’s offense has taken a beating from fans and media in the days since that Buckeyes loss, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has the biggest mismatch of this game with Penn State’s ground game versus the Washington defense.
Even with a lackluster performance last week, the Nittany Lions still rank third in the Big Ten with 187.5 rushing yards per game, split among one of the best running back tandems in the FBS with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
The Huskies own the conference’s best pass defense, but their run defense is a different story. Washington ranks just 92nd in both Rush Success Rate allowed and Line Yards allowed.
The Huskies haven’t held an opponent below 165 rushing yards for five straight games.
Penn State’s run offense should have its way with the Huskies. A good comparison for this game was a few weeks ago when the run-heavy Iowa offense took Washington to task. The Hawkeyes ran the ball 37 times for 220 yards and beat the Huskies, 40-16.
Penn State may have lost last week, but it still has everything to play for. The Nittany Lions will seek every style point possible in this matchup and will use their running game to bounce back in a big way.
Pick: Penn State -13.5 (Play to -14)
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BYU vs. Utah Best Bet: How to Bet Holy War
By Joshua Nunn
Against FBS competition this season, Utah team totals are 7-1 to the under, and the Utes haven't exceeded their team total since Week 3 against Utah State.
Offensively, Utah is a mess right now.
The Utes rank 97th nationally in EPA Per Play and now are undecided about who will start at quarterback against BYU in the Holy War. Isaac Wilson has been relatively unimpressive in Salt Lake City, while Brandon Rose is simply inexperienced.
The Utes' offensive line has struggled to physically impose their will on opponents, something we have grown accustomed to them doing for the past 15 years.
BYU has performed well defensively this season, ranking 16th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 24th in Defensive EPA Per Play.
The Cougars are excellent against the pass and have done well to contain explosive plays. Utah explosives have been nonexistent for weeks, and the Utes are really limited in their play-calling selection without Cam Rising under center.
This Utah team struggles to convert on third down, moving the chains on just 31% of money downs. Furthermore, Kyle Whittingham's team has gone just 8-for-18 on fourth downs.
Red-zone struggles have also plagued the Utes, who have scored touchdowns on just 13 of their 27 attempts inside the 20-yard line all season. BYU has bowed up nicely inside the red zone, allowing just 14 red-zone touchdowns all season.
If Utah gets down there, I would expect it to line up for field goals more often than not.
Plus, neither of these teams will run tempo outside of a first-half two-minute drill.
This will be a very high-energy, spirited game for both teams. Utah will want to win this game, and the only logical path to that happening is to muck it up and make it a four-quarter defensive struggle.
The Utes can't get into a shootout with BYU due to their limited ability offense.
Pick: Utah Team Total Under 18.5 (Play to 17.5)
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Utah State vs. Washington State Best Bet: Offensive Explosion in Pullman
By John Feltman
We’ve got a great opportunity to cash in on an over in the last game slated to kick off on the Saturday night slate.
The Aggies enter the matchup top-50 in Line Yards, Pass Success Rate and Havoc Allowed. Quarterback Spencer Petras has also thrown 11 touchdowns to six interceptions on the season.
The Cougars defense seems decent, but they haven't played many tough offenses. There should be a lot of explosive plays waiting to happen, especially with the Washington State ranking dead last in PFF Tackling grade.
The offensive front should hold up against the Cougars' trench, which doesn't create much Havoc. I would expect Petras and Co. to take advantage.
Wazzu quarterback John Mateer is a massive reason the offense is clicking on all cylinders. He has thrown 18 touchdowns while chipping in nine more on the ground.
The Cougars are in the top 40 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, and they rank 18th in Pass Success Rate. It's an incredible matchup for the offense, and I expect them to run up and down the field all night.
Meanwhile, the Aggies defense is an outright disaster. They rank outside the top 115 in the following defensive metrics:
- Pass and Rush Success Rate Allowed
- Finishing and Quality Drives
- Havoc
- Defensive Line Yards
I love the matchup for the Cougars offense, and their defense will get exposed. The total is very high, but considering both teams are coming off subpar offensive displays, it's a great time to take the over.
The other positive for these teams is that they had a bye week to prepare for the matchup, so we could see some new offensive installations that will catch their opposition off guard.
Let's face it: The Aggies defense does not know what a three-and-out is, and they're essentially turnstiles when opponents enter their territory.
Both offenses love to go lightning quick, so we should always see minimal clock churned. Plus, the Cougars may expand their lead late in the game, allowing them to pull some of their defensive starters.
It's a great game script for both teams to score many points, and sharp money has started to pour in on the over.
After the Alabama-LSU game, this is a perfect game to flip on late at night, It'll be fun to watch both offenses light up the scoreboard.
Pick: Over 70 (Play to 72)
