Outside of the obvious No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Georgia and No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU, it's a pretty average Week 10 slate. But there are still some very important games that could change the college football playoff landscape continues to shift.
Here are the pace numbers as we stand through Week 9.
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.
Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Now, let's dive into the Week 10 slate.
Maryland vs. Wisconsin
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +188 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -230 |
Both Wisconsin and Maryland are coming off of a bye, fully rested for Week 10.
The Badgers offense has taken off ever since Paul Chryst got fired and subsequently stopped calling plays, as Wisconsin has scored 95 points in the three weeks since his departure.
One of the biggest reasons for that is Graham Mertz, who has been playing at an elite level. Mertz has an 83.6 PFF passing grade and has 15 big-time throws compared to just five turnover-worthy plays while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.
Wisconsin is also ranked 12th in explosive passing because of how elite Mertz has been throwing the deep ball.
On passes over 20 yards, Mertz has a 97.2 PFF passing grade with 13 big-time throws, zero turnover-worthy plays and a 57.2% adjusted completion percentage.
That PFF passing grade of 97.2 ranks third in college football behind only North Carolina's Drake Maye and Coastal Carolina's Grayson McCall.
An aggressive play call on 3rd and 3 that says “Confidence in Graham Mertz” pic.twitter.com/u4o0MbfxzA
— IKE Badgers Podcast (@IKE_Badgers) October 11, 2022
However, the way to get at this Maryland defense is on the ground. The Terrapins are allowing only 3.4 yards per carry on the season, but they've faced some pretty lackluster rushing attacks.
The best ground game they faced was Michigan at the Big House, and the Wolverines ran for 243 yards and 6.1 yards per carry against them.
Maryland also ranks 122nd in Power Success Rate Allowed, 76th in Stuff Rate and 82nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Good luck stopping Braelon Allen, who has been on a tear, rushing for over 100 yards on 5.5 yards per carry in his last three games.
Taulia Tagovailoa missed the last game against Northwestern with a knee injury but has already been upgraded to probable for Saturday.
That's good news for Maryland because Tagovailoa is having a fantastic season. He's averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and owns a 90.4 PFF passing grade and an 81.4% adjusted completion percentage.
He will have a big advantage over this Wisconsin secondary that ranks 84th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 69th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
There will be 14 MPH crosswinds at Camp Randall Stadium, but Wisconsin's last two games have had over 15 MPH winds, so it really shouldn't have a huge impact.
Wisconsin is playing at a below-average pace, while Maryland is playing at a very average pace. Either way, with these two offenses averaging over 6.0 yards per play and ranking in the top 25 in Finishing Drives, a total of 52 is too low.
Pick: Over 52 |
Penn State vs. Indiana
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Sean Clifford has been struggling this season, but despite throwing three interceptions against Ohio State, he actually had his best game of the season.
He finished with a PFF passing grade of 82.9, had an adjusted completion percentage of 81.9% on 47 attempts, and only one of his three interceptions was graded as a turnover-worthy play.
Clifford will be the big key in this game because the Indiana secondary has been terrible this season. The Hoosiers are rank 122nd in Passing Success Rate, 116th in EPA/Pass and 117th in terms of coverage grade, per PFF. They also allow 7.5 yards per attempt (82nd in FBS).
The Indiana offense has been pretty bad this season, but the Hoosiers are playing at an ultra-fast pace. Tom Allen's squad runs a play every 18.34 seconds, which is the fastest pace in the nation.
If Indiana is going to have any hope of penetrating this Penn State defense, it'll have to do it via explosive plays, which it's found a way to do in the run game.
Running back Shaun Shivers has been struggling to break off a lot of big plays — he has just 10 rushes over 10 yards — but Indiana ranks 58th in explosive rushing, while the Penn State front seven is 89th in explosive rushing allowed.
So, if the Indiana offense goes three-and-out repeatedly at record pace, it will give Clifford plenty of opportunities to throw against the Indiana secondary.
I have 61.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value of over 53.5 points.
Pick: Over 53.5 |
Tennessee vs. Georgia
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Listen, I get it. The Tennessee offense is electric. Rocky Top is a great fight song. The Volunteers are a lot of fun.
However, they haven't had a game in which an opponent has forced them to play at a slow pace. If there's a team in college football that can slow down Hendon Hooker, it's Georgia.
The Bulldogs are allowing only 4.6 yards per play while ranking fourth in Success Rate, and fifth in EPA/Play.
Hooker has been incredible this season, putting up a 90.1 PFF passing grade, while averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with 14 big-time throws compared to just four turnover-worthy plays.
However, this is the best secondary he has faced all season. Georgia allows only 5.8 yards per attempt and ranks third in Passing Success Rate Allowed and fifth in EPA/Pass Allowed.
The Bulldogs did lose a lot of their best players on defense from last season, and Hooker really struggled against them in Knoxville last season. He averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt and recorded two turnover-worthy plays and a 47 PFF passing grade.
Georgia's front seven is once again one of the best in college football, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry while ranking seventh in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, sixth in EPA/Rush Allowed and sixth Defensive Line Yards. Georgia is also second in the nation in Finishing Drives Allowed.
So, it's going to be extremely difficult for Tennessee to move the ball consistently.
On the flip side, Georgia is the No. 1 team in the nation in Success Rate but ranks 111th in explosiveness. Most importantly, Georgia comes in at 106th nationally in seconds per play.
Georgia has been running the ball well, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and ranking second in EPA/Rush. However, the Tennessee front seven has been good this season, ranking 17th in EPA/Rush Allowed and top-10 in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
That means this game is likely going to be in Stetson Bennett's hands. Bennett nearly had a perfect game against Oregon to open the season and then recorded dominant performances against South Carolina and Kent State.
However, he's been average since then.
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Image via PFF.
The Tennessee secondary ranks 78th in Passing Success Rate and 60th in EPA/Pass Allowed, so the offense is really going to be dependent on Bennett moving the ball through the air.
The absolute worst thing that Georgia can do is make this a score-for-score affair with Tennessee, so I expect offensive coordinator Todd Monken and Bennett to play at an ultra-slow pace on offense, looking to control the time of possession.
I only have 56.4 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 66 points.
Pick: Under 66.5 |
