It's a pretty lackluster Week 9 slate, but there are still some very important games that could change the college football playoff landscape continues to shift.
Here are the pace numbers as we stand through Week 8.
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.
Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Now, let's dive into the Week 9 slate.
Temple vs. Navy
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Even though we have a service academy in this game, I think the total is a tad low.
Navy's triple option is humming right now. In the last three games, the Midshipmen have put up a total of 107 points while gaining 5.5 yards per play and most importantly 5.53 yards per carry.
They've also had over a 45% Standard Down Success Rate in all three games.
Daba Fofana goes 47 yards to the end zone 🏠 @NavyFBpic.twitter.com/jHULjidXOL
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 8, 2022
Navy is checking a lot of key metrics that a triple option team wants to be ranked highly in to be successful. The Midshipmen sit third in Stuff Rate Allowed, 11th in Power Success Rate and 34th in Offensive Line Yards. They're even 34th in rushing explosiveness, which isn't typical for a service academy.
They'll be going up against a Temple defense that ranks 93rd in rushing explosiveness allowed, 60th in Defensive Line Yards and 77th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
When Temple faced the triple option last year, Navy ran for 218 yards on the ground and put up 38 points.
Temple has not been great offensively to this point, but it does one thing pretty well: explosive passing. The Owls rank 36th in explosive passing, and quarterback EJ Warner owns a 79.9 PFF passing grade on throws over 20 yards with six big-time throws.
Navy has one of the worst secondaries in college football that allows 10.3 yards per attempt (130th in FBS) while ranking 129th in passing explosiveness allowed and 130th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Additionally, Temple plays at a decently fast pace, running a play every 25.05 seconds, which is 49th in college football.
I have 45.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 40 points.
Pick: Over 40 |
Pitt vs. North Carolina
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -122 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Pittsburgh comes in after a very lackluster showing offensively to take on red-hot North Carolina.
The Panthers were held to just 10 points against Louisville last weekend, but the final score isn't really indicative of Pitt's offensive performance.
The Panthers averaged 4.9 yards per play, had a 47% Standard Downs Success Rate and drove the ball inside Louisville's 40-yard line a whopping seven times. However, they came away with just three points.
Turning the ball over four times didn't help the situation either.
They'll now have one distinct advantage on offense, and that's their rushing offense. Pitt ranks 54th in EPA/Rush, while North Carolina comes in at 95th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Pittsburgh has one of the best running backs in the ACC in Israel Abanikanda, who's averaging 6.1 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns and 26 runs of at least 10 yards.
Pitt RB Israel Abanikanda rushed for 320 yards today and 6️⃣ TDs today 🤯 pic.twitter.com/SxQOjV4AOp
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 8, 2022
Kedon Slovis has been struggling under center this season, but the North Carolina secondary has been really bad, allowing 8.1 yards per attempt (106th in FBS). That unit also ranks 110th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 101st in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF.
Meanwhile, UNC quarterback Drake Maye has been lighting up opposing defenses this season and has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has a 90.1 PFF passing grade, averages 9.8 yards per attempt and has 23 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions.
DRAKE MAYE ARE YOU KIDDING!!🤯🤯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 8, 2022
He has North Carolina ranked 14th in Passing Success Rate, ninth in passing explosiveness and second in EPA/Pass.
The Pitt secondary has been pretty good this season, but it's been susceptible to giving up big plays, ranking 67th in passing explosiveness allowed.
The Panthers are also giving up way too many big plays in the run game, ranking 126th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, rank 48th in rushing explosiveness, and Drake Maye already has 17 runs of at least 10 yards.
North Carolina plays at a rapid pace, running a play every 22.43 seconds, which is the 13th-fastest in the country. It also sits fourth in Finishing Drives. So, if the Heels get ahead in this game, they're going to force the Panthers to play at their pace.
I have 80.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 64 points.
Pick: Over 64 |
Nevada vs. San Jose State
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
This Nevada offense is unbelievably bad.
The Wolf Pack average only 3.9 yards per play (128th in FBS) while ranking 122nd in Success Rate and 124th in EPA/Play.
The only way they've actually scored points is off of explosive plays because they're 48th in explosiveness. Well, San Jose State's defense ranks 35th in explosiveness allowed.
It got so bad against San Diego State that starting quarterback Nate Cox got benched for Oklahoma State transfer Shane Illingworth. I guess you could make the case that Illingworth is better, but he averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt and put up a 66.9 PFF passing grade last Saturday.
Whoever is starting at quarterback will be going up against a really good San Jose State secondary that's allowing only 6.3 yards per attempt (15th in FBS) while ranking 37th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 15th in passing explosiveness allowed.
San Jose State's defense is one of the best in the Mountain West this season, as the Spartans allow only 4.4 yards per play (8th in FBS) and rank 15th in EPA/Play and 12th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
They've allowed just one team to score over 20 points against them: Auburn of the SEC.
The flip side of the coin is that San Jose State has been very poor on the offensive side of the ball.
Just when it looked like the Spartans were turning a corner after putting up 30-plus points against Western Michigan, Wyoming and UNLV, they put up a dud of a performance against Fresno State by scoring only 10 points and averaging 4.3 yards per play.
San Jose State ranks 98th in EPA/Play, 73rd in explosiveness and 74th in Finishing Drives on the season. So, even though it's going up against a bad Nevada defense, it's not a guarantee that it's going to put 30 on the scoreboard.
We also have two offenses that are playing at incredibly slow paces. Nevada runs a play every 25.73 seconds (73rd in FBS), while San Jose State is playing even slower at 27.60 seconds per play (102nd in FBS).
I only have 39.7 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 44.5 points.
Pick: Under 44.5 |
