The college football postseason is here. With so much on the line, we'll see which teams are in line for a spot in the College Football Playoff and have a much clearer picture of which bowls teams will play in.
Here are the pace numbers as we stand through the regular season.
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.
Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Now, let's dive into Championship Weekend.
Coastal Carolina vs. Troy
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
The Sun Belt Championship game just doesn't have the same luster to it with star Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall out for the season.
Coastal has played just two games without McCall, and the last game against James Madison showed just how much he means to this offense. The Chanticleers mustered just seven points and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry in a 47-7 loss.
Coastal Carolina runs a speed option, and boy, do they take their time at the line of scrimmage. The Chanticleers play at one of the slowest paces in college football, averaging a play every 28.9 seconds.
Without McCall, they really haven't been very successful running the ball, as they averaged just 3.1 yards per carry against Southern Miss and James Madison.
The reason Troy is hosting the Sun Belt Championship is because of its defense. The Trojans allowed only 4.5 yards per play (8th in FBS) and ranked 16th in EPA/Play Allowed and ninth in Finishing Drives Allowed.
They were outstanding against both the run and the pass, ranking inside the top 20 in both EPA/Rush Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed. So, they should be able to shut down Coastal's offense with a backup quarterback.
While Troy's defense has been incredible, its offense has been a different story. The Trojans rank 76th in Success Rate, 87th in explosiveness and 98th in Finishing Drives.
Troy starting quarterback Gunnar Watson has been quite poor all season, as he's averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and has 13 big-time throws compared to 16 turnover-worthy plays.
The Troy rushing attack hasn't been very effective either, as the Trojans are 87th in Rushing Success Rate, 111th in rushing explosiveness and 91st in EPA/Rush.
Much like Coastal Carolina, they also play at a very slow pace, running a play every 27.5 seconds to rank 103rd nationally in pace.
I only have 42.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 48.5 points.
Pick: Under 48.5 |
Clemson vs. North Carolina
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 63.5 -112o / -108u | -295 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 63.5 -112o / -108u | +235 |
Clemson's College Football Playoff hopes vanished last weekend with a 31-30 loss at home to South Carolina. It will try to pick up pieces and refocus on winning an ACC title when it takes on North Carolina on Saturday night.
The Tigers offense will have some massive advantages, though — especially on the ground.
Will Shipley is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has 35 runs over 10 yards. As a team, Clemson ranks 19th in Rushing Success Rate, 30th EPA/Rush and 26th Offensive Line Yards.
Will Shipley is too strong 💪💪💪pic.twitter.com/MFwjsINRUB
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) November 26, 2022
North Carolina's defense has been terrible, especially against the run, as it's outside the top 90 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards. So, Clemson should be able to run the ball at will.
North Carolina's secondary has also been a train wreck, allowing 7.9 yards per attempt while ranking 109th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 114th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
DJ Uiagalelei has a great ability to throw the deep ball. He has an 85.5 PFF passing grade with 22 big-time throws on passes over 20 yards in the air.
On the other side, Drake Maye has been incredible for North Carolina this season.
The freshman has put up a 91.1 PFF passing grade, which is the fourth-best mark in college football. He also will be able to exploit the one main weakness of this Clemson defense: explosive passing allowed.
On throws of 10 yards or more, Maye has a PFF passing grade over 92 and an absurd 40 big-time throws, which is the most in college football. Clemson ranks 63rd in explosive passing allowed, so Maye should be able to air the ball out against the Tigers defense.
Drake Maye has quite a few throws in his bag pic.twitter.com/vbwUlflvo2
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 13, 2022
The biggest thing for this North Carolina offense, though, is that it puts the ball in the end zone when it gets into opponents' territory. The Tar Heels are averaging 4.78 points per drive when they cross their opponent's 40-yard line, which is the fourth-best mark in the country.
North Carolina plays at a really fast pace, running a play every 22.8 seconds — the 14th-fastest mark in FBS. Clemson, meanwhile, runs a play every 25.2 seconds, which is 52nd in the nation.
I have 72.2 points projected for this game, so I love the value on over 63.5 points.
Pick: Over 63.5 |
