The final week of the college football season is here, and so is the best week of the year: Rivalry Week. There are some massive matchups that essentially will decide which teams go to a conference championship game, a bowl or the College Football Playoff.
Here are the pace numbers as we stand through Week 12.
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.
Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Now, let's dive into the Week 13 slate.
South Carolina vs. Clemson
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -630 |
The Battle of the Palmetto State got a little more interesting after South Carolina dominated Tennessee last week.
While the moment was great for Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks, they may have just opened the door for their in-state rival to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Spencer Rattler seemingly returned to the quarterback we saw in 2020, throwing for a whopping six touchdowns against Tennessee.
The Gamecock offense essentially lives on big plays, especially in the passing game. South Carolina ranks 13th in explosive passing, and Rattler has an 87.2 PFF passing grade on throws over 10 yards.
Clemson's secondary sits 47th in explosive passing allowed, so South Carolina may be able to break off some big plays through the air.
The Tigers offense has some massive advantages, though, especially on the ground. Will Shipley is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has 29 runs over 10 yards. As a team, Clemson ranks in the top 35 in Rushing Success Rate, EPA/Rush and Offensive Line Yards.
WHAT A RUN BY WILL SHIPLEY!🔥
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 12, 2022
South Carolina hasn't been able to stop the run to save its life this season, and it's one of the main reasons it's regressed so much. The Gamecocks are allowing 4.9 yards per carry (119th in FBS) while ranking 128th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 113th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 119th in Defensive Line Yards.
South Carolina's secondary has also been quite poor, ranking outside the top 70 in terms of Passing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Pass Allowed and 116th in PFF coverage grade.
DJ Uiagalelei has great ability throwing the deep ball. On throws over 20 yards in the air, he has a 91.0 PFF passing grade with 19 big-time throws.
I have 59.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 51.5 points.
Pick: Over 51.5 |
Purdue vs. Indiana
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket may have a little more meaning this weekend if Nebraska somehow upsets Iowa. If that happens, Purdue just needs to beat Indiana, and it's headed to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship.
The Indiana offense has been pretty bad this season, ranking 120th in Success Rate and 121st in EPA/Play.
However, the offense came alive last Saturday in East Lansing, as Indiana put up 39 points despite running only 51 offensive plays. Indiana went run-heavy against the Spartans, as Dexter Williams attempted only seven passes.
It'll have to do so again against Purdue because Williams is not a great passer. However, he's a fantastic runner, which really helps open up holes in the read option for Shaun Shivers.
Shivers has struggled this season but went for 113 yards on 15 carries last week, which was by far his best game of the season. Even with all of the struggles he's had, Indiana is still 24th in rushing explosiveness.
This Shaun Shivers (@V8Blazing) 79-yd TD run is the longest run by an @IndianaFootball player since 2014. 🔥
📍@CountryMark 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 pic.twitter.com/rZJK3pQMza
— Indiana On BTN (@IndianaOnBTN) November 19, 2022
While Purdue has been stout against the run, it's very poor in one crucial category on defense: Finishing Drives. The Boilermakers are 96th in Finishing Drives Allowed with opponents averaging 4.08 points per drive once they cross Purdue's 40-yard line.
Aidan O'Connell has been very inconsistent this season, averaging only 6.7 yards per attempt this season to go along with a 69.7 PFF passing grade. He's also recorded 18 big-time throws compared to 23 turnover-worthy plays.
The good news for him is he's going up against one of the worst secondaries in college football, as Indiana ranks 128th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Purdue has found some success on the ground. Running back Devin Mockobee is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has 21 runs over 10 yards. He's the main reason why Purdue sits 34th in Rushing Success Rate.
The Hoosiers are playing at an ultra-fast pace. Tom Allen's squad runs a play every 18.3 seconds, which is the fastest pace in the nation. They often tend to go three-and-out in record time, giving the opposing offense ample opportunities to score on their lackluster defense.
Purdue also plays at an above-average pace, which should lead to a higher-scoring game than expected.
I have 62.3 points projected for this game, so I love the value on over 54.5 points.
Pick: Over 54.5 |
Oregon vs. Oregon State
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
The Oregon-Oregon State rivalry has quite a bit on the line this weekend, as the Ducks need to win or hope for a Washington loss to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game. However, they'll have to overtake their in-state rivals to do control their own destiny.
Oregon escaped with a 20-17 win over Utah last Saturday night despite turning the ball over three times. However, the Oregon offense has been outstanding this season despite that one bad game.
The Ducks lead the country in Success Rate and rank eighth in EPA/Play. What's strange, though, is they haven't broken off many big plays, as they're 115th in explosiveness.
The offense is dominated by the run game, which ranks first in the country in Success Rate and second in EPA/Rush.
Running backs Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington are both averaging over 6.0 yards per carry, but Oregon was held to just 2.4 yards per carry against Utah. Oregon State has struggled to stop the run this season, so Oregon could have a field day.
Bo Nix does lead college football in adjusted completion percentage at 83.9%, but his PFF passing grade comes in at just 78.6 with 12 big-time throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays.
He mainly lives in the short passing game with 63.8% of his passes being 10 yards or shorter in the air. He'll have a really tough task on his hands on the road Saturday because Oregon State has one of the best secondaries in the country. The Beavers rank ninth in passing explosiveness, eighth in EPA/Pass allowed and are allowing only 6.1 yards per attempt.
Oregon State is an extremely rush-heavy offense, with the Beavers carrying the rock on 60.1% of their offensive plays.
They've run the ball successfully, ranking 17th in Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. However, that plays right into the strength of the Ducks defense, as Oregon ranks top-35 in almost every run defense category.
Ben Gulbranson really hasn't been effective at quarterback, as he's averaging just 7.5 yards per attempt. He owns a 64.1 PFF passing grade to go along with four big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays, so, Oregon State is going to have to lean on its run game once again.
Oregon is typically viewed as a fast-paced team, but it's actually been playing slow this season, as it ranks 76th in seconds per play. Meanwhile, Oregon State plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the country.
With two offenses that are going to lean on their run games at a slow pace, I think the total is a tad inflated. I have 52.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 58 points.
Pick: Under 58 |
