What's left of Tropical Storm Olga is making its way across the Midwest, touching Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Tennessee, and there will be lots of college football games played in those states.
And I'm hoping every game is an absolute disaster, because I just threw far too many unders and alternate unders into some pocket-change parlays and round robins.
Just call it: The Great College Football Bad Weather Alternate Under Round Robin of 2019.
Rain affects every college football game a little different, but it does suppress scoring in general. So does wind. And most of these games will have lots of both.
Using our weather data at Sports Insights, we can find games with bad weather when the games will actually be happening.
I initially played a round robin with the regular unders on Friday morning.
- Illinois-Purdue under 57
- Miami Ohio-Kent State under 56.5
- FIU-MTSU under 58
- Ohio-Ball State under 60
- Notre Dame-Michigan under 51
- Virginia-Louisville under 51
- Wyoming-Nevada under 44
For those unfamiliar, a round robin gives you all the parlay combinations for your desired games — so if you choose five games, you can automatically bet 10 different 3-team parlay combinations. If you hit all five games, you hit all 10 parlays. If you hit three games, you win one parlay. Sort of like a box in horse racing.
Betting the normal unders was fine, but to really embrace the possible variance that could come with this awful weather, I had to sell some points and play alternate unders.
I had to get weird.
It's far from a guarantee that these games go under. But if they do, given the weather, they have the possibility of going under by at least a touchdown. I don't have a ton of additional analysis on many of these games, because again it's mostly a play on weather and the variance it could bring.
A $10 parlay of the five games I'll get into below pays out north of $1,500, but I'll round robin them together into 10, 3-team parlays.
This is also a good opportunity to points bet a total with our friends at Points Bet, though points betting an under is a terrifying proposition. You win or lose more based on the margin against your bet, so if the total is 50 and the final score is 24-16, you win 10-times your bet. If the final is 44-16, you lose 10-times your bet.
If you miss the start of any of these games, keep an eye on the weather, and don't be afraid to lean into the variance for any other wet, windy contests on the slate.
Illinois at Purdue Under 48.5 (+200)
The weather in East Lafayette is expected to be bad, it's a letdown spot for Illinois and Purdue is still dealing with a rash of injuries. I think this is my favorite.
Virginia at Louisville Under 45.5 (+155)
Virginia's offense broke out last week, but has struggled for much of the year, and Louisville loves to keep the ball on the ground.
Trouble is, the UVA defense lives in opposing backfield, ranking No. 13 in Havoc.
Ohio at Ball State Under 52.5 (+180)
The weather in Muncie might be worse than anywhere else, and while I do like both of these offenses, I like the idea of getting +180 while staying in the low 50's.
As much as I wanted to add a Penn State-Michigan State or Missouri-Kentucky to this masterpiece, dipping below 38 is too dangerous.
Michigan-Notre Dame Under 45.5 (+140)
This is the only night game I'm interested in, but the weather could get really ugly in Ann Arbor. The Michigan defense has been much better over the last few weeks and I'm hoping this one ends around 20-17.
FIU-Middle Tennessee State Under 49.5 (+210)
MTSU's defense has been playing over its head — its points per game allowed should be much higher given its underlying numbers.
But the wind in Murfreesboro is going to be nasty, likely the highest of the day.
