Some of the best college football teams in the country are off in Week 6 or finishing out their non-conference slates, but we take no weeks off here. It's full speed ahead from a betting perspective.
Our staff has been hard at work finding their favorite plays for Saturday and compiled them below.
College Football Best Bets
Odds as of Friday at 1 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Collin Wilson
- Game: Iowa at Michigan
- Odds: Michigan -3.5
- Total: 48
- Time, TV: 12 p.m. ET, FOX
Rutgers may serve as a springboard and punching bag for plenty of teams, but last week's game could have shown the beginning of what Michigan wants to be on offense. The 52-0 win was highlighted by four offensive touchdowns that took 5 plays or fewer in 2 minutes and 8 seconds or less.
This is the explosiveness Jim Harbaugh was looking for when hiring offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. The Iowa defense is not getting any penetration into the offensive backfield with stuff and sack rates outside the top 100, and that may mean a second straight clean box score for Shea Patterson.
The Michigan defense has been much worse compared to past seasons. A rank of 124th in Havoc is highlighted by just 9 passes defensed and 16 tackles for loss through four games of play. Do not expect that to change in Ann Arbor on Saturday, as Iowa is the No. 1 team in the nation in havoc allowed thanks to an excellent offensive line.
The point spread is spot on, as the Action Network projection is Michigan -3.5. If the Wolverines were to fall to a field goal, Michigan would be worth an investment.
And our projected score of 57.5 is powered by yards per play, plays per game and adjusted pace. Considering both defenses will make this a Havoc-less game, the Michigan offense should be explosive and the Iowa defense should have minimal resistance.
Pick: Michigan -3.5, over 48
Stuckey
- Game: Auburn at Florida
- Odds: Auburn -2.5
- Total: 48.5
- Time, TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
This line is simply an overreaction in the market to what an undefeated (both straight-up and ATS) Auburn has done so far this season.
I mean, just last week the lookahead line was Florida -3 and now because Auburn dominates Mississippi State, we see a 6-point swing the other? I’m not buying it.
Yes, Auburn has more impressive wins than anybody in the country but I think we may have all overrated Mississippi State (which lost at home to Kansas State) and Texas A&M (which just barely beat Arkansas in Arlington).
And to be honest, Auburn could’ve (should’ve?) easily lost to Oregon. If the Tigers did drop that season opener and came into this game with 1-loss, we wouldn’t have had the hype to drive this line to where it is.
Pick:Florida +2.5
Danny Donahue
- Game: Auburn at Florida
- Odds: Auburn -2.5
- Total: 48.5
- Time, TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
I'm keeping it simple with my favorite bet this weekend. Any time I see a game drawing 1.5 times the ticket count of the next closest matchup and a team getting more than 70% of bets in said game, my decision is pretty much made for me.
That's especially true in conference matchups, which have caused far more issues for public bettors.
In our Bet Labs database (since 2005), teams getting 35% or fewer bets in conference games that are being bet at at least 2.5 times the day's average pace have gone 91-58-1 (61.1%) against the spread.
The Gators are pulling in just 23% of bets in a game drawing more than 4.5 times the Saturday average.
Pick: Florida +2.5
PJ Walsh
- Game: Baylor at Kansas State
- Odds: Kansas State -1.5
- Total: 49.5
- Time, TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Both of these teams move the ball well on the ground, which keeps the clock rolling and helps games land under closing totals.
According to our Rushing Statistics Pro System, when two teams that average at least 215 yards rushing face off in games expected to be lower scoring (totals below 59), the under is 98-81-3 (54.7%).
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In addition, the forecast is not ideal for explosive passing plays and long field goals. Steady 14-mph winds are expected at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, which are also beneficial for under bettors.
Since 2005, unders are 501-387-13 (56.4%) in games played with consistent breezes of at least 13 mph.
And finally, Baylor and Kansas State haven’t been in any kind of rush offensively so far this season, ranking 84th and 121st, respectively, in plays per game.
The data suggests a run-heavy matchup between two slow offenses that, even if they try to move the ball through the air, could have trouble doing so due to expected windy conditions.
Pick: Under 49.5
Steve Petrella
- Game: Oregon State at UCLA
- Odds: UCLA -6
- Total: 65.5
- Time, TV: 9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network
There's an excellent book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who writes often about probability and randomness, called Antifragile. He details how humans should take advantage of uncertainty and variance instead of shying away from it, among many other things.
I really believe he'd be proud I try to use this concept in betting, and specifically for an Oregon State-UCLA game.
These concepts of variance have led me to betting lots of first-half moneylines on underdogs when the games have high totals, a system proven profitable with our data at Bet Labs. More scoring, more variance.
Blindly betting single-digit road underdogs on the first half moneyline when the total is at least 60 has resulted in an 43% win percentage and 6.1% ROI since 2005. Surprisingly, it's even more profitable in conference games.
Oregon State has shown some serious signs of life on offense this season, ranking 19th in points per possession and 30th in yards per play.
The Beavers also like to move fast and there's still so much uncertainty with UCLA on both sides of the ball, so I'm more than willing to take a stab on them stealing a late touchdown in the first half to take a halftime lead.
Pick: Oregon State 1H Moneyline +160 or better
