The most wonderful time of the year is back: MACtion, the best way to get your mid-week college football betting fix as we await a big Saturday slate.
This week, we have two games — Kent State at Toldeo (7 p.m. ET) and Ball State at Western Michigan (8 p.m. ET).
We analyze the betting odds for both matchups below, as Collin Wilson picks out a bet offering value in both games.
Looking to bet some Midweek MACtion? Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Kent State at Toledo Odds
- Spread: Toledo -7
- Over/Under: 61.5
- Time: Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Kent State at Toledo Line Movement
This spread hasn’t seen a whole lot of movement since it opened, and in fact, currently sits at its opening number of Toledo -7.5. For a brief period it fell to a flat touchdown, but with 71% of money from 52% of bets landing on the home team, oddsmakers were quick to re-add the hook.
The general trend on the total has been upward, but barely. The earliest books to the market pegged this number around 60, and while it’s seen lines anywhere from 60 to 62, most shops are currently showing a 61.5. Seventy-eight percent of bettors have hit the over, and they’ve made up for almost all the money (95%) being wagered to this point. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: Will Kent State Get Out of Its Own Way?
Kent State and Toledo may be out of the race in their respective divisions, but there is plenty to play for on both sides.
The Golden Flashes enter the game at 3-5 and are in desperation mode to make a bowl game. Games against Buffalo, Ball State and Eastern Michigan present tough challenge, so a win against Toledo would go a long way to helping Kent State get to a bowl.
Toledo becomes bowl eligible with a win on Tuesday night and the Rockets have a tough schedule in November.
The Rockets are coming off an overtime win over Eastern Michigan. Eli Peters manned the ship for Toledo in that game, filling in for No. 1 quarterback Mitch Guadagni. Guadagni's status is unknown for Week 11.
Peters played 12 games in 2018 and led the Rockets to a bowl game, so he's more than capable of leading this offense. The bigger story is the rushing attack, led by Bryant Koback, fresh off a 259-yard performance against EMU.
No matter who is under center, the Golden Flashes will have their hands full with the Rockets. Toledo ranks 25th in passing explosiveness, while Kent State ranks 125th in opponent pass explosiveness.
The biggest matchup when Kent State has the ball will be wide receiver Isaiah McKoy vs. Toledo's Sam Womack, who leads the nation with 14 pass break-ups.
While the are not a havoc-minded defense, the Flashes have a lot of trouble holding onto the ball and rank 126th in havoc allowed. Kent State is its own worst enemy and the Rockets kill their own drives better than almost anybody in the country. Toledo's defense ranks inside the top 30 in opponent red zone scoring so even if Kent State does get in range, the job is far from finished.
This line is a little inflated, as our projected spread for this game is Toledo -4, but I think the total is the better look here. We project the Over/Under for this game at 53, which leads me to the Under.
The Pick: Under 61.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Ball State at Western Michigan Odds
- Spread: Western Michigan -6.5
- Over/Under: 63.5
- Time: Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN 2
Ball State at Western Michigan Line Movement
While Western Michigan has been the popular side of this matchup (drawing 55% of bets), the heavy majority of actual money is going the other way. Eighty-five percent of dollars have hit Ball State, and as a result, oddsmakers have been convinced to drop this line through the key number of +7, as the Cardinals have fallen from +7.5 to +6.5.
As for the total, it’s stayed right around its opener of 63.5/64 despite a 67% backing of the over accounting for 71% of money. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: Should You Wait Out This Steam?
In the MACtion game that matters Tuesday evening, Western Michigan has a chance to take over first place in the West division with a victory over Ball State.
The Broncos already hold the tiebreaker over Central Michigan and a win against the Cardinals would leave next week's game against Ohio as the remaining hurdle.
On paper, it's easy to see why Western Michigan is the favorite here. The Broncos are better in havoc, 3rd-down conversion rate and red zone defense. Western Michigan's defense ranks in the top-20 in sack rate but its secondary has some issues defending the pass.
Ball State quarterback Drew Plitt should be able to move the chains against Western Michigan, which ranks 102nd passing success rate, but the Broncos rank 25th in defending pass explosiveness, so connecting on a big play is easier said than done.
This total looks correct, but I'm looking to invest in Western Michigan. The Broncos have an explosive rushing attack and a defense that limits big plays, so I think they could beat this number.
Given the way the market is trending, I'm hoping this number ticks closer to our projected spread of Western Michigan -5, but I think the Broncos are worth a shot here at -6 or better.
The Pick: Western Michigan -6 or better [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
