Wilson: 9 College Football Games I’m Betting in Week 2

After years of starting slowly in college football betting, I'll take a 6-3 opening weekend with my head down, ready to attack Week 2.

I got down plenty of cheddar when Week 2 lines opened on Sunday. Every game moved in the favor of my Sunday Morning Coffee column, which projects next week's spreads using my power ratings.

I've had plenty of inquiries about the numbers and questions such as: "Would you take it at its current number?" The answer will always be: Check the Sunday column. The closer the number is to mine, the less value it has. Thus, the less money you should wager.

There are rare instances where I purposely pass on a number despite a big discrepancy. For instance, I knew my Arkansas Razorbacks needed five turnovers while averaging two yards per carry to beat Eastern Illinois.

We'll get more stats on success rate and explosive plays as the weeks go on, so always practice good money management early on.

Let's get to the picks!

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Saturday Morning Mimosas

Liberty at Army

• Spread: Army -8
• Over/Under: 58.5
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS Sports Network

I loved Liberty in Week 1, but a 52-10 rout of Old Dominion was unexpected. Stephen Calvert first came on the scene in 2017 with a victory over Baylor, but a four-touchdown performance for 345 yards last week gave the Flames an opening statement in the FBS.

We may not have seen Liberty's full potential, as the Flames were without three players due to suspension.

Army has long been a thorn in the sharp bettors' sides, racking up one of the biggest negative rankings in Second-Order Wins for 2017, meaning its record was way better than its actual performance.

This handicap comes down to Army's porous pass defense. The Black Knights ranked 122nd in Passing S&P+ defense last season. "Buckshot" Calvert should have time to throw, and Army is not the kind of team to play catch-up.

Roll with the hot hand and take the Flames.

Play On: Liberty +8

Duke at Northwestern

• Spread: Northwestern -3
• Over/Under: 49
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPNU

Northwestern got outgained but pulled out the victory against Purdue thanks in part to three turnovers. Pat Fitzgerald's group left that game with a yards per play differential of -1.57.

It's hard to win many games with a negative differential, and it's even tougher to do while going 6 for 18 on third down.

Duke was a different story in Week 1, avenging a 2017 loss to Army. The Blue Devils sold out to stop the run, leaving them vulnerable to a few big pass plays. Duke still finished almost positive two yards per play average for the game.

The offense should have an easier time upfront, as Northwestern will be without two defensive tackles. Take the points with the Dukies and add them to all round-robin moneyline parlays.

Play On: Duke +3

Eastern Michigan at Purdue

• Spread: Purdue -17
• Over/Under: 55
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: Big Ten Network

I made my love of Eastern Michigan known in a conference futures piece back in June. The Eagles didn't disappoint in Week 1 with a 51-17 steam roll of Monmouth.

EMU had five players with catches of at least 23 yards a piece and amassed five touchdowns through the air.

Purdue outgained Northwestern, but there were obvious differences in the Boilermakers defense from a 2017 unit that ranked 21st in efficiency. The pass rush against Northwestern was non-existent, and EMU's running back combination of Shaq Vann and Ian Eriksen should eat all afternoon.

Look for Iowa transfer quarterback Tyler Wiegers to play the entire game, and keep the Eagles within the number.

Play On: Eastern Michigan +17

Saturday Afternoon Power Hour

Memphis at Navy

• Spread: Navy +6.5
• Over/Under: 67.5
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS Sports Network

The run-and-shoot renaissance in Honolulu tagged Navy with a Week 1 loss. Navy's defense was exposed for 24 points in the second quarter, but that didn't mean that Malcolm Perry didn't get his highlights.

Navy returns home to host Memphis, which did everything right in Week 1 against Mercer. Taking over at quarterback, Brady White has made the Tigers look just as explosive in Week 1 as they were under Riley Ferguson in 2017.

But expect Navy to attack with a game plan similar to last year's, when the Midshipmen racked up 314 yards on the ground. Memphis will struggle stopping the triple-option, which could allow Perry to bust an explosive play at any moment.

Play On: Navy +6.5

Arkansas State vs Alabama

• Spread: Alabama -36
• Over/Under: 66
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2

Where I was hesitant to lay any points with Louisville, I find the Arkansas State spot much better to fade Alabama. The Crimson Tide have Ole Miss on deck, and per Bet Labs, Alabama is 5-14 ATS when favored by 28.5 or more points against nonconference opponents.

My power ratings have this number closer to 30, while S&P+ is around -33.5 for the Crimson Tide. Getting any points north of 35 should have plenty of value.

Red Wolves quarterback Justice Hansen is one of the best passers in the Group of 5, going for 37 touchdowns in 2017. Hansen had six touchdowns in last week's game against Southeast Missouri State.

This offense ranked seventh in Passing Success Rate for 2017 and should put up enough points to get within five touchdowns for a cover.

Play On: Arkansas State +36

Appalachian State at Charlotte

• Spread: Charlotte +14
• Over/Under: 48
• Time: 6 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+

There was plenty to observe in the Charlotte victory over Fordham in Week 1. What should have been a closer game was a rout thanks to a flashy 49ers offense that had 20 first downs and almost 500 total yards.

Charlotte also controlled the ball for 37 minutes and committed only four penalties. No matter the opponent, the game plan and execution were solid.

Appalachian State came very close to pulling off the upset of the weekend, with a 45-38 loss in overtime to Penn State. A big issue for the Mountaineers to resolve is the penalties, having 10 for 105 yards in Week 1.

My power numbers make this Appalachian State -9, while S&P+ dictates a 13-point spread. Other power ratings make this fewer than two touchdowns. While this could be a flat spot off an overtime loss to a college football blue blood, shop for the best number when backing the 49ers.

Play On: Charlotte +14

Saturday Night Blackout Chaser

Sacramento State at San Diego State

• Spread: San Diego State -25.5
• Over/Under: 58.5
• Time: 9 p.m. ET

My DMs were flooded when this play hit The Action Network App on Thursday night, and the answer is yes…we are really betting this game.

The line is currently available at 5Dimes, but should be at every book by Saturday. The Hornets destroyed St. Francis in their opener, totaling 630 yards. The game looks even more impressive considering all the starters were pulled in the second half, and head coach Jody Sears was serving a one-game suspension.

After taking the lead early on Stanford in Week 1, San Diego State had a letdown and didn't cover the spread. While the Aztecs recover from Stanford, there could be overlook to Arizona State in Week 3. Danny Gonzales is the new defensive coordinator in Tempe after serving multiple years under Rocky Long at San Diego State.

SDSU has plenty to look back on with Stanford, and plenty to look forward to against ASU. The real question is how much prep and focus are the Aztecs putting into this specific game?

USA Today's Sagarin Ratings (which measure FCS teams, too) would make this game about an 18-point game on a neutral field. We will take the extra points in a nice spot to back the Hornets.

Play On: Sacramento State +25.5

UConn at Boise State

• Spread: Boise State -31.5
• Over/Under: 63.5
• Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPNU

This could be a nice little spot for UConn. In Week 1 against Central Florida, the Huskies had 486 total yards. Plus, getting 27 first downs and converting 10 of 18 attempts on third down will usually make you successful.

But the Huskies did have three turnovers in the game, so they scored 17 points. That can be dangerous against a team that now has a "Turnover Throne".

Boise State comes home off a long trip to Troy in a sleepy spot before a game at Oklahoma State. Not only is this a spot that Boise might not bring everything it has, but the Broncos also have one of the worst covering percentages at home.

Boise State is 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. I have this power rated at UConn +24, so we will happily ride the Huskies at the current number.

Play On: UConn +31.5

Rice at Hawaii 

• Spread: Hawaii -17.5
• Over/Under: 70
• Time: 12 a.m. ET (Sunday)

The world has fallen over the rainbow in love with quarterback Cole McDonald and Hawaii. The new run-and-shoot offense for Nick Rolovich has produced two straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs and nearly 1,000 total yards for McDonald in just two games.

When I saw this number, I knew there would be a late night play on the visiting underdog. My power ratings make this a 7-point ball game, while no other power-ratings system has Hawaii as a double-digit favorite. Have none of us adjusted the Rainbow Warriors far enough to have a truly accurate picture of Rolovich's team? Or are oddmakers baiting you into taking a red-hot Hawaii?

Rice has two games under its belt, and head coach Mike Bloomgren has brought a couple of characteristics over from Stanford. The Owls are plus-2 in net turnovers and rank fourth in the country at time of possession.

If you want to stop McDonald and Hawaii's offense, it may be in your best interest to play keep away with the ball. Rice had four drives of more than seven plays against Houston in the second half last week, and I expect a grind from the Owls to close out the night.

That puts value on a huge underdog line.

Play On: Rice +17.5