Iowa State Cyclones vs Baylor Bears Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Baylor hosts Iowa State this Saturday at McLane Stadium on homecoming weekend.
The Bears have won two of their last three over conference foes, entering this game at 3-4 overall and 2-2 in the Big 12.
Meanwhile, the Cyclones won consecutive games before their bye last week and own a surprising 3-1 mark in conference play.
This is a crucial game for both squads in their quest for bowl eligibility, which should result in a fun battle in Waco.
Iowa State Cyclones
After losing to Ohio in Week 3, everyone wondered if coach Matt Campbell could salvage a season that started with the suspension of key players due to betting violations.
Yet, Campbell turned the ship around and took down Oklahoma State, TCU and Cincinnati. Another win here would be just the third time the Cyclones have started 4-1 in conference play in school history.
Offensive line play has been vital in the turnaround. At this time last season, Iowa State had allowed 15 sacks. This year, the Cyclones have allowed the sixth-fewest in FBS.
On defense, Campbell's team has been opportunistic, picking off 12 passes on the year and six in the past two games. ISU is 11th nationally in turnover margin.
Baylor Bears
Like Iowa State, Baylor started slow, losing three of its first four to Texas State, Utah and Texas.
It remains to be seen if this was because of a demanding schedule or because Dave Aranda's team was still maturing.
Over the first three games, the Bears had 19 players make their program debut, with 20 freshmen getting reps.
Things were on the edge of spiraling out of control for Baylor after being down 35-7 late in the third quarter at UCF. But Aranda’s squad rallied to a 36-35 victory for the largest comeback in school history.
If this young roster continues improving, this could be an exciting team to watch down the stretch.
Iowa State vs. Baylor
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Baylor match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 133 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 101 | |
| Quality Drives | 66 | 102 | |
Baylor Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 37 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 124 |
| PFF Coverage | 16 | 99 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 45 | 75 |
| Middle 8 | 45 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (108) | 26.5 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 50.4% (79) | 47.5% (113) |
Iowa State vs Baylor
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Baylor's been better, I think the wins have been a tad deceiving.
Meanwhile, I like the improvements Iowa State has made.
So, my best bet is to take the visitors on the ML. If the odds move much further in the Cyclones' favor, I would play them up to -3 on the spread.
Both Iowa State and Baylor most recently played Cincinnati, giving us a solid comparison point for these two.
I don't think there's a question about which team looks more impressive.
Iowa State held the Bearcats to only 214 yards in a dominating 30-10 road victory.
Meanwhile, the Bears were outgained by Cincinnati and needed a scoop and score on a kickoff return to win by three.
This is the same Baylor defense that gave up 7.7 yards per play and 35 points to a UCF squad missing quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.
Iowa State has an advantage in Explosiveness, which could be the difference in this game. Both offenses have produced explosive plays, but the Bears are bottom-five among Power Five programs in Explosiveness Allowed.
I trust the Cyclones much more to get stops on the defensive side of the ball, which should give them more chances to attack this weak Baylor defense.
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