The wait is over. The 2019 college football season kicks off on Saturday with two games. In the marquee matchup, No. 8 Florida takes on Miami (7 p.m .ET) in an in-state matchup. The nightcap features Hawaii hosting Arizona in Honolulu (10:30 p.m. ET).
According to The Action Network's live odds page, we are tracking nearly twice as many tickets on Florida-Miami as Arizona-Hawaii. This is not surprising, as casual bettors love wagering on games featuring a ranked team, but the public shouldn’t overlook the late game as there is a profitable against-the-spread (ATS) system that points to value on Arizona-Hawaii.
In the first game of the season it has been profitable to bet bowl teams from the previous year. Hawaii went 8-5 in 2018 and played in the Hawaii Bowl. In Kevin Sumlin’s first season at Arizona, on the other hand, the Wildcats lost their final two games of the regular season, finishing 5-7 and failing to qualify for the postseason.
It is best to back bowl teams from the previous season when there is line movement and when the game is played at home or on a neutral field. This strategy works because bettors are getting a talented, well-coached team (again, made a bowl game the previous season) at a discounted price.
Since 2005, bettors following this strategy have gone 215-154-6 (58.3%) ATS per Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,901.
It is not just this Action Pro System that points to value on Hawaii. According to S&P+, the Rainbow Warriors are projected to lose by 8.4 points and the consensus line is Hawaii +11.
A majority of spread tickets are on Nick Rolovich’s team at home, which helped force a line move from the opener of 11.5 to 11. It might be a smart move to take the points with Hawaii before the line moves further.
