Buy on bad news (teams after a high-profile loss) and sell on good (fade teams off a top-10 win).
This is a simple contrarian betting strategy that has proven profitable year to year. While this betting philosophy is usually right, it doesn’t apply to every situation.
Old Dominion quarterback Blake LaRussa threw for 495 yards and four touchdowns and Jeremy Cox ran for 130 yards and two scores as the Monarchs upset No. 13 Virginia Tech as 28.5-point underdogs last Saturday.
The Monarchs were one of seven teams to pile up more than 600 yards of offense in Week 4. Teams don’t often accumulate that many yards of offense in one game. It seems like this would be a great opportunity to sell on good news, but that’s not the case.
According to Bet Labs, teams that gained 600 or more yards of offense in their previous matchup went 471-427-13 (52.4%) ATS in their next game since 2005.
There is a sharp split between favorites and underdogs:
It appears the market appropriately prices teams after big offensive games when they are expected to win, but underdogs are undervalued as teams in this situation have covered the spread 57% of the time since 2005.
The sweet spot is betting road underdogs after games in which a team has accumulated 600 or more yards of offense.
A contrarian bettor’s first instinct would be to fade a team following a strong offensive game. While it goes against our betting philosophy of selling on good news, after tallying 600 or more yards of offense, teams are undervalued as road dogs in their next game.
Following its surprising defeat of Virginia Tech, Old Dominion goes on the road to face East Carolina Saturday. The Monarchs are listed as 5-point underdogs against the Pirates, making them a system match.
In addition to Old Dominion, three other teams are matches for this weekend.
Game Matches
- Syracuse (+22) at Clemson (12 p.m. ET)
- Virginia Tech (+6) at Duke (7 p.m. ET)
- Ole Miss (+11.5) at LSU (9:15 p.m. ET)
