Like we do each week, we'll give out our favorite moneyline underdogs on the Week 11 college football card. Play one that catches your eye, throw all three in a longshot parlay or just read for additional insight.
Two will always come from Collin Wilson and me on The Action Network Colleges podcast — and college football contributor Locky Lockerson will provide the other.
We had a complete wash of a week last Saturday, as Missouri +200 funded losses on two long shots that flopped in Navy and Coastal Carolina.
Let's move on to Week 11 with three late afternoon moneyline dogs that can hopefully bark for us. If you're feeling a little crazy, a moneyline parlay of all three pays approximately 35-1.
YTD: 11-18 +5.75 units
Locky: UNC +365
- Spread: Duke -11
- Over/Under: 58
- Time: 12:20 p.m. ET
- TV: Raycom
This one's pretty easy from a value standpoint. These teams are not this far apart.
North Carolina does have an atrocious record, but has played competitive football during its current four game losing streak. The Heels have lost their last four by 10, 10, 3 and 3.
They were only +7.5 at Virginia, who is at least as good as Duke this season. Now, the Blue Devils are +10 for an early kickoff in Durham, where I highly doubt home-field advantage will cause any problems.
Outside of Clemson, the ACC is a collection of teams that can beat each other on any given weekend. It wouldn't shock me to see UNC pull off this upset a week after Duke upset Miami, which is probably stretching this number a bit too far in the market.
Stuckey: Tennessee +180
- Spread: Kentucky -5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
This play is an exact mirror of the Missouri moneyline that cashed for us last week. In that game, the Tigers caught a deflated Florida team the week after a loss to Georgia eliminated it from SEC East contention.
Well, we find Kentucky in the exact same situation this week, having lost to Georgia last week, which eliminated the 'Cats from the SEC East race. Eerily similar.
You won't find many advanced metrics to support this play, but it is just a dream situational fade against what I anticipate will be an extremely flat Kentucky squad. The Vols are also playing better of late and should still have Bowl motivation. They also should benefit the rest of the way from one of the hardest schedules in the nation to date.
In a game where points should come at a premium, Tennessee can pull off this mini upset.
Collin Wilson: Temple +180
- Spread: Houston -5
- Over/Under: 69.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: CBSSN
If you read my weekly CW9 column, you know I love the Owls this week.
Temple didn't cover for the first time in seven games against Central Florida — although it really should have. The Owls had a real shot at pulling off the upset in a game it gained nearly 700 yards of total offense — until a copious amount of questionable flags helped the home team get to the finish line.
Star defensive tackle Ed Oliver may return for Houston, which could be a major factor, especially if Temple's center and best offensive linemen Matt Hennessy (questionable) can't go.
However, on the other side of the ball, Temple has the personnel to contain Houston's mobile quarterback D'Eriq King. The explosive King has 30 touchdowns to just five interceptions on the season to go along with 503 yards on the ground.
Temple has had plenty of success against dual-threat QBs this season, limiting UCF's McKenzie Milton to just 19 yards on seven carries, Buffalo's Tyree Jackson to three yards and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder to a staggering 17 carries for -2 yards.
Temple ranks 14th against explosiveness on standard downs and 13th against passing explosiveness. I am putting money behind an Owls team that limits big plays from the quarterback and has covered eight of nine on the road.
