After a successful regular season, it's time for one final installment in 2018 of our college football money line underdogs piece. For the finale, we will each select our favorite dog for the entire bowl season. Bet one that catches your eye, throw all three in a longshot parlay or just absorb some additional insight ahead of bowl season.
Two of the plays always come from Collin Wilson and me on The Action Network Colleges podcast — and college football contributor Locky Lockerson will provide the other.
In Week 14, we made a few pennies by splitting UAB +110 and Cal +145, but unfortunately came up JUST SHORT on Georgia +425 for a huge weekend. We finished the regular season at 15-26 and +4.45 units.
However, as I said, our work isn't done just yet. We still have three more to go for bowl season, which after all, is the best time of the year to bet moneyline underdogs.
If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of all three pays slightly over 13-1. Let's get started with two post-Christmas Big 12 underdogs — before finishing up with a Big Ten-Pac 12 showdown on New Year's Eve.
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time CFB odds and track your bets
Stuckey: Baylor +150
- Spread: Vanderbilt -3.5
- Over/Under: 55
- Bowl:Texas
- Location: Houston, Texas
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 27
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
I'm still livid that Miami Ohio didn't get invited to a bowl, as the Redhawks would have been one of the teams at the top of my "motivated" list.
That said, there are still a number of teams that have a little extra bowl motivation in 2018. A Group of 5 team like UAB, which is searching for the program's first ever bowl victory, is up there. From the Power 5, I'd look at Kentucky, which is seeking its first bowl win since 2008.
There are many others that we will cover throughout our bowl previews — one of which is Baylor — a team we backed on the moneyline to get bowl eligible in its final game of the season. After reaching the team goal of bowl eligibility, I think head coach Matt Rhule will have his team fully motivated, as a bowl victory one year removed from a 1-11 season would mean a lot for the program.
From an X's and O's standpoint, I think Baylor can not only attack Vanderbilt on the ground, but it should also have some success through the air – even without the services of wide receiver Jalen Hurd. For once, quarterback Charlie Brewer should have plenty of time to make plays behind an offensive line that has struggled to protect him all season.
Baylor's offensive front allowed a league-high 37 sacks and ranks 98th in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs. However, that is not Vanderbilt's strong suit, as the Commodores ranked dead last in the SEC in sacks and rank a putrid 114th in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs.
Trust in Rhule and Brewer to get this done in Texas.
Locky: Iowa State +150
- Spread: Washington State -3.5
- Over/Under: 55
- Bowl:Alamo
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Date: Friday, Dec. 28
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Why yes, I would love the chance to get plus-money against the least-profitable coach of the entire bowl season, thanks!
Washington State head coach Mike Leach is just 1-7 against the spread in bowl games. That includes a loss last year in close to a pick-em situation, when his team got absolutely blasted by Michigan State.
Leach has many crazy theories about moon landings and animal behavior, but he clearly hasn't thought much about properly preparing a team for a bowl game. He has had similar problems after bye weeks, so one logical theory is that the Air Raid offense gets out of rhythm with extended breaks.
On the other hand, while Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is just 2-2 ATS in bowl games, he did a an outstanding job prepping Iowa State last bowl season for a very good Memphis team, who the Cyclones beat in dramatic fashion.
Coaching trends aside, Washington State was the "horseshoe" team all season, covering every Pinnacle closing number for 11 straight games leading up to the Apple Cup. But from all we've learned about the Pac-12 this season, just how good are the Cougars? On a neutral field in Texas, should they even be favored here?
I think this line reflects a slight overreaction to Iowa State's last game — the oddly re-scheduled narrow victory over lowly Drake. The Cyclones looked bad on a light slate, so everyone took notice and came away shocked. However, does that game actually have any real predictive impact on this one? No, probably not.
The situations couldn't be more different, yet maybe we're getting a little value on Iowa State here as a result of that poor outing in a meaningless game.
I'll fade Mike Leach in bowl games until given a reason not to do so.
Collin Wilson: Michigan State +130
- Spread: Oregon -3
- Over/Under: 48
- Bowl: Redbox
- Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
- Date: Monday, Dec. 31
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
As of now, potential first round NFL draft pick Justin Herbert is slated to start at quarterback for Oregon in the RedBox Bowl. However, it wouldn't shock me if the junior quarterback decided to sit out to avoid any potential injury on Dec. 31. If that's the case, both Michigan State +3 and +135 would quickly evaporate in the market.
But even if he does suit up, I still see a few reasons why Sparty has value as an underdog in this matchup. Under Herbert, the Ducks offense thrives on passing downs, ranking 11th overall in S&P+. However, that plays right into the hands of a Michigan State defense that excels on passing downs, ranking fourth in S&P+.
The Spartans also boast the sixth-best Havoc Rate in the nation, so you can expect Herbert and his targets to be under constant pressure on New Year's Eve.
I trust Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio, who has enjoyed plenty of bowl success in recent years. Dantonio has won five of his past six bowl contests, including a perfect 2-0 record against the Pac 12:
- 2017, beat Washington State in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
- 2014, Rose Bowl outright win as a 6.5-point underdog over Stanford
Additionally, there are discrepancies in Strength of Schedule and Special Teams S&P+ — both of which favor Michigan State. Oregon has a strength of schedule of 65th and a Special Teams S&P+ rank of 103rd, while the Spartans rank 23rd and 53rd in those respective categories.
Oregon blamed the early signing deadline and Willie Taggert’s departure for its struggles in last year's Las Vegas Bowl, but I still don't trust new head coach Mario Cristobal in a big game away from Eugene.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
