Action Network has proudly presented a bowl confidence preview every December since 2018, but the dynamics of college football have changed in a major way.
The transfer portal has thrust complete chaos on the month of December for FBS head coaches, resulting in some leaving their positions to take coordinator jobs at other programss.
One area of relief is the early signing period, as the NCAA moved the date before bowl games were set to begin. Still, coaches must deal with roster retention.
Nearly 31,000 athletes have also entered the transfer portal over the past year, with nearly half of those players finding a new home.
Our bowl confidence strategy has shifted, from handicapping the play on the field to also including coach and roster retention.
This column will serve as an early gauge of all the movement in assigning confidence from the Salute to Veterans Bowl on Dec. 14 through the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.
While the goal is to pick a straight-up winner of each bowl, assigning confidence points will win individual pools.
Using our tools at Action Network, including our Power Ratings and Stuckey’s Opt-Out and Transfer Portal Tracker, we look to meet the deadline before our first bowl kicks on Dec. 14.
There will be 40 bowl confidence assignments this season. The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff will not have a point value, as the matchups are undetermined for Boise State, Arizona State, Oregon and Texas.
Let's dive into my college football bowl pick'em confidence pool rankings. But first, a quick look at every bowl and its assigned point value:
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Jackson State (-1.5) vs. South Carolina State
Cricket Celebration Bowl · Saturday, Dec. 14
Both teams come in on absolute heaters.
Jackson State has won nine straight games, and South Carolina State has emerged victorious in seven straight.
More impressive for the Bulldogs is its cover streak against the spread.
There's a common opponent between the two teams in Florida A&M, although SC State’s loss to the Rattlers came back on Aug. 31.
SC State goes as the passing game goes, a problem for Jackson State considering the number of explosives allowed against Southern and Bethune-Cookman.
The Tigers go as far as the rushing attack takes them. However, they'll be running into a Bulldogs defense that has stuffed every opponent, including 19-of-23 attempts against Howard and half of the attempts against NC Central.
- Pick: South Carolina State · Confidence: 1
Western Michigan took plenty of steam in the market on open, thanks to injuries and portal news on the South Alabama side.
Running back Fluff Bothwell has left the Jaguars and is expected to be on an SEC roster next season, while quarterback Gio Lopez may not play in this game due to injury.
Backup quarterback Bishop Davenport and running back Kentrel Bullock are enough to challenge a poor Western Michigan defensive line that has lost two key starters to the portal.
- Pick: South Alabama · Confidence: 28
West Virginia opened as a favorite and was quickly steamed to a field-goal underdog.
Head coach Neal Brown was fired with offensive coordinator Chad Scott being named the interim head coach.
Key players are expected to hit the portal after the Mountaineers' bowl game, ultimately giving Memphis' passing attack the advantage.
West Virginia finished near dead last in Passing Success Rate allowed and PFF Coverage grade, while the Memphis defense ranks top-15 against the rush in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
- Pick: Memphis · Confidence: 10
James Madison is still looking for its first-ever bowl victory after losing to Air Force last season.
The story here is the portal entry of Western Kentucky's quarterback room, as TJ Finley was followed by starter Caden Veltkamp.
Veltkamp was in the portal during last year's bowl game and still provided five touchdown passes for the Hilltoppers.
The Dukes have one of the best defenses in the Group of Five, while Western Kentucky struggled to produce any stops in Conference USA action.
- Pick: James Madison · Confidence: 32
Steam on Cal came thanks to a coaching vacancy in Las Vegas.
Barry Odom has moved on to Purdue, while offensive coordinator and inventor of the Go-Go offense Brennan Marion may not be far behind. Wide receiver coach Del Alexander remains behind as the interim for the bowl.
Only starting cornerback Tony Grimes has opted into the transfer portal, while the Rebels await word from wide receiver Ricky White III and his decision regarding the NFL.
Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza stated his intentions of leading Cal in 2025 and not entering the transfer portal, but he entered on Dec. 11.
While Mendoza's absence lowers the confidence ranking, rush explosives favor the Bears against a UNLV defense that's outside the top 100 in Defensive EPA.
- Pick: Cal · Confidence: 14
Sam Houston head coach KC Keeler has moved on to Temple, while a big number of contributors have hit the portal.
Running back Jay Ducker is in the portal, one piece of the heavy ground attack with quarterback Hunter Watson.
The Bearkats should have success on the ground against the Eagles' poor rush defense.
While the portal list is minimal for Georgia Southern, head coach Clay Helton has yet to cover a bowl game dating back to his USC days in the 2013 Las Vegas Bowl.
- Pick: Georgia Southern · Confidence: 4
Although Tim Albin has moved on to be the head coach of Charlotte, offensive coordinator Brian Smith will take over as the interim head coach.
If a move comes for Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez, it may be after the bowl game for the Conference USA champions.
Both teams implement a heavy rush approach with a minimum 62% rush rate for each side.
Ohio has the more respectable defensive numbers against the rush, ranking top-15 in efficiency and Stuff Rate. The Bobcats have a mid-FBS Success Rate against inside zone, the Gamecocks' preferred concept with Tre Stewart.
The big advantage comes from Ohio's man-blocking run concept with a 56% Success Rate. Jacksonville State has a 44% efficiency rate against man while allowing a high rate of explosives.
- Pick: Ohio · Confidence: 6
Steam hit the Gators' number with speculation that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall could be on the move for a Power Four position. Instead, quarterback Darian Mensah hit the transfer portal and committed to Duke.
Backup Ty Thompson will be expected to lean on his limited experience in three prior years at Oregon.
Florida missed out on bowl season last year, but head coach Billy Napier turned in one of the more surprising records in college football.
Freshman quarterback DJ Lagway is expected to have two of his best weapons on offense in running back Montrell Johnson and wide receiver Elijhah Badger.
- Pick: Florida · Confidence: 38
Methodical offensive possessions and special teams were in the formula in Indiana's close call against Michigan and eventual loss to Ohio State.
Head coach Curt Cignetti has the numbers to throw up roadblocks against a vicious Notre Dame rushing attack that uses inside zone.
The problem for the Hoosiers comes when the Irish pivot to man-blocking schemes, particularly with running back Jadarian Price’s 5.2 yards after first contact.
Ground explosives are also on the side of Notre Dame, as Indiana ranks 61st in opponent rush EPA.
On the other side, Notre Dame has hidden advantages to combat the Hoosiers offense, as head coach Marcus Freeman’s nickel defense sits top-10 in broken tackles allowed and creating contested catches.
- Pick: Notre Dame · Confidence: 25
SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee has yet to cover a bowl game in three previous postseason appearances but will now coach for a chance to make the national quarterfinals.
This will be a step up in strength of schedule for SMU, which finished the season without a marquee win after losing the ACC Championship to Clemson.
A rank of 90th in Line Yards suggests running back Brashard Smith will be asked to create highlight yards against a Penn State defense that's top-30 in broken tackles allowed.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings should struggle in known passing downs with an on-target rank of 83rd against a Nittany Lions' stop unit that's top-20 defense in creating contested catches.
Potential rain and snow in the forecast would benefit the better ground attack, as the Nittany Lions are top-10 in big-play rate, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
- Pick: Penn State · Confidence: 36
The continued struggles in the red zone for Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian may get relief against Clemson. The Tigers are bottom-15 in rush explosives allowed, something Quintrevion Wisner could take advantage of in power rushing attempts or an RPO package with Arch Manning.
The sophomore has produced a rushing attempt of at least 15 yards in the last three games, generating eight explosives in the last three games against Kentucky, Texas A&M and Georgia.
There's a high probability of methodical possessions for Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik against a Texas defense outside the top 50 in rush efficiency.
The difference in this game is the Longhorns' stellar numbers inside the top two nationally in allowing a quality drive and Defensive Finishing Drives.
- Pick: Texas · Confidence: 39
No confidence pool is won with taking the favorite every time. Tennessee will bring much more than just the wide-split spread offense to the Horseshoe.
The Volunteers have a top-10 pass rush unit led by edge rusher James Pearce and his 52 pressures. Offensive line issues persist with Ohio State, as a shuffle has been in order since losing blindside tackle Josh Simmons and a late injury to center Seth McLaughlin.
Tennessee holds a big advantage in third downs on both sides of the ball.
Plus, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has lost all three games against the SEC during his tenure with the Buckeyes.
- Pick: Tennessee · Confidence: 21
The UTSA defense ranks top-five in rush efficiency, an important handicap against a Coastal Carolina offense that has both contributing quarterbacks in the transfer portal.
If neither Noah Kim nor Ethan Vasko are a go for the Chanticleers, the Roadrunners defense will flex an aggressive blitz unit that ranks 12th in pass rush.
Although Kevorian Barnes is in the transfer portal, Robert Henry Jr. took over as the lead running back for the Roadrunners during the season.
UTSA won three of its final four games this season, catching fire in November to make the bowl season.
- Pick: UTSA · Confidence: 34
Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock will look to stay undefeated in bowl games after an injury-plagued 2024.
Points will be at a premium in frigid temperatures thanks to the transfer portal with respect to Fresno State. Quarterback Mikey Keene is not expected to participate in the game, and no other signal-caller on the roster threw more than six passes this season.
The Bulldogs lost three of their final four games while producing one of the worst rush efficiency numbers nationally.
Northern Illinois has been led by a heavy rush attack and an offensive line that finished top-20 in Line Yards. Running back Gavin Williams should get all the yardage needed to keep the chains moving for the Huskies.
- Pick: Northern Illinois · Confidence: 16
There's no word on if Biletnikoff Award nominee Nick Nash will make the trip to the island after recording more than 33% of San Jose State’s receiving yards on the season.
There are explosives on the South Florida side, with running back Kelley Joiner Jr. producing 21 rushing attempts to go for at least 10 yards. The Bulls rank fifth in Rush EPA, an avenue to quick scoring for an offense that's bottom 10 in Quality Drives.
With a spread around a field goal and questions about Nash's participation, low confidence is the suggestion with more than 10 days to play
- Pick: San Jose State · Confidence: 3
The under is generally the play on the first game after Christmas Day, but no matter the date, Toledo has been saddled with poor offensive play.
The Rockets managed to score just 21 points in the final two games against Akron and Ohio, finishing the season outside the top 120 in Rushing Success Rate, Quality Drives and rush explosives.
Considering Pitt doesn't have any crucial defensive players in the portal and owns a Line Yards rank of third in the country, head coach Jason Candle has a tough task of putting numbers on the scoreboard.
Pitt is also in a position of struggle, starting the season 7-0 before losing five straight to end the season. On top of the displacement in the ACC standings, quarterback Eli Holstein may not play due to injury.
With backup Nate Yarnell in the portal, walk-on freshman David Lynch would get starting duties.
With a spread near double-digits, confidence is low for head coach Pat Narduzzi and a potential first-time signal-caller.
- Pick: Pitt · Confidence: 19
Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano is a master motivator when it comes to bowl games, generating a 6-1-1 mark against the spread thus far.
Kansas State could be without star running back DJ Giddens, while starting right tackle Carver Willis is in the transfer portal. Andrew Leingang did get 55 snaps at the position throughout the season but has been a natural left guard throughout his time with Kansas State.
Without Giddens, Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards would be the primary ball-carrier, but he never totaled more than eight attempts or 60 yards in any game.
Rutgers could be without star running back Kyle Monangai due to an opt-out, but backup Antwan Raymond busted out in Week 14 against Michigan State with two touchdowns and an average of 4.4 yards after first contact.
Rutgers never beats itself on offense, ranking top 10 in Havoc Allowed, penalties and offensive momentum killer.
- Pick: Rutgers · Confidence: 7
The best skill position players for Bowling Green are all expected to play despite injuries and transfer portal entries.
Running back Terion Stewart made it clear he intends to play, solidifying the Falcons as a top-15 team in rush explosives.
May I join you one more time?😈 https://t.co/FQz4NbuVVi
— Terion Stewart (@StewartTerion) December 9, 2024
Harold Fannin Jr., the best tight end in the nation, suffered an injury late in the season but stated he will play in the bowl.
The Arkansas State defense has been dreadful throughout the year, ranking dead last in giving up the big play and in early downs Success Rate.
Bowling Green should create quality drives and cash in on trips into the extended red zone.
- Pick: Bowling Green · Confidence: 35
The bad news for Oklahoma comes from a transfer portal that has taken numerous names on the offense, specifically quarterback Jackson Arnold.
The good news is a freshman quarterback has already been in a trial by fire in Michael Hawkins Jr.
More good news comes from the Navy defense, as the Sooners are sure to run an RPO package and avoid the critical mistakes that led to the dismissal of offensive coordinator Seth Littrell.
Navy has struggled to defend any kind of rushing attack despite a strength of schedule of 86th.
The Sooners have been fantastic on defense against the run concepts of zone read, man and counter. With three weeks to prepare, Oklahoma will be ready to go as a top-five defense in Rushing Success Rate.
- Pick: Oklahoma · Confidence: 29
Both teams will look to implement their heavy rush attacks, but only one side is suited to stop the run defensively.
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key’s defense ranks 12th in Line Yards and fourth in Defensive Stuff Rate, a variable needed against Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.
The Yellow Jackets have been fantastic against nearly every opponent run concept, including the man blocking expected from Vanderbilt.
Georgia Tech has two quarterbacks capable of rushing the ball in Aaron Philo and Haynes King. Vanderbilt sits outside the top 90 in defensive rush efficiency and ranks 80th in broken tackles allowed.
- Pick: Georgia Tech · Confidence: 8
Despite offensive coordinator Zach Kittley leaving to take over as the head coach for Florida Atlantic, Texas Tech will have the supreme advantage in roster stability.
Arkansas will lose a number of contributors on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receiver Andrew Armstrong is off to the NFL, while a number of targets such as Isaiah Sategna and Luke Hasz have hit the portal.
If running back Ja’Quinden Jackson opts out, the Razorbacks could be faced with Taylen Green scrambling behind an offensive line that has lost two starters to the portal.
Whether Tahj Brooks plays or not, the Arkansas defense will be without starting safety TJ Metcalf and defensive edge Landon Jackson to injury.
- Pick: Texas Tech · Confidence: 31
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines. Both Washington State and Syracuse will want to pass the ball and look for explosives in this game.
The Orange toss the ball around the yard at one of the highest rates in the country with quarterback Kyle McCord, who ended the season with over 600 dropbacks and 29 touchdowns.
The only defense with a pulse in the secondary on the schedule was Pittsburgh, which picked off five passes from McCord.
Washington State ranks 35th in coverage grading, per PFF, slightly better than a rank of 62nd in creating contested catches.
Syracuse has been horrific in defending the pass, ranking 111th in coverage and 123rd in generating a contested catch.
Stack on quarterback John Mateer’s looming decision to enter the transfer portal, and the confidence in this underdog is kept low.
- Pick: Washington State · Confidence: 5
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed can get an early jump on his 2025 season with a strong performance against the USC defense.
The Trojans finished outside the top 65 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Line Yards, so the Texas A&M trench should move the pile on rushing attempts from Reed and running back Amari Daniels using inside zone and counter.
The USC offense may be a bit less efficient with the portal losses of receivers Kyron Hudson and Duce Robinson.
Although Jayden Maiava threw for 360 yards against Notre Dame, the sophomore saw 30 pressures in the final two games. It's unknown if the strength of A&M's defensive line will remain or opt out for the NFL Draft, but USC ranks 120th in pass blocking — a factor to consider with starting right tackle Mason Murphy in the transfer portal.
- Pick: Texas A&M · Confidence: 26
The loss of bookend offensive tackles would be critical for the UConn offense, as both Chase Lundt and Valentin Senn are potential opt-outs for the NFL. There are 31 snaps or less in the reserves for the right and left tackle positions, deflating a heavy rush attack for UConn.
In the case Durrell Robinson doesn't play after appearing in the transfer portal, UConn would still field two running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts this season.
Quarterback Joe Fagnano would be expected to carry the offense through his arm with targets going to Skyler Bell and TJ Sheffield.
The North Carolina offense may have to operate without star running back Omarion Hampton, who generated a rank of 13th in Rush EPA for the Tar Heels.
Quarterback Jacolby Criswell would be expected to throw the ball more frequently, taking advantage of a UConn defense that has played the 124th strength of schedule.
- Pick: North Carolina · Confidence: 9
The coaching carousel on Nebraska's staff continues, as Dana Holgorsen was named offensive coordinator while defensive coordinator Tony White left for Florida State.
Both areas needed a tweak for the Cornhuskers, as the offense is 133rd in pass explosives alongside a rank of 113th in scoring opportunities.
Nebraska won just a single game in the last six dating back to early October.
Boston College has a different path, winning three of its final four games while inserting Grayson James as the starting quarterback. James has since doubled his big-time throw rate compared to his turnover-worthy plays.
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola continues to see rumors swirl about hitting the transfer portal, a move that could be for show to solidify an NIL future.
- Pick: Boston College · Confidence: 2
With a starting running back in the portal and quarterback Ben Wooldridge potentially being out with injury, the Ragin’ Cajuns could take a wrong turn in Albuquerque.
TCU could have multiple avenues to putting points on the board, as Louisiana ranks near dead last in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Line Yards and generating a pass rush.
Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover connected on 23 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions this season. The Ragin' Cajuns, meanwhile, have been near dead last in creating contested catches.
- Pick: TCU · Confidence: 37
With a poor Defensive Havoc number for Iowa State, quarterback Cam Ward should have time to cook in this game. The issue is the status of the soon-to-be NFL Draft pick, who could opt out at any point before the game.
With Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel expected to be targets for Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht, the Cyclones will lean on a high rate of explosives to set up drives that end with a score.
The Miami defense has been competent in not only Success Rate but also in limiting explosives.
Expect this number to shift if opting out becomes a serious consideration for Ward, who would miss out on the toasting of three new exciting mascots.
- Pick: Miami · Confidence: 17
Miami (OH) will be without Reggie Virgil and Javon Tracy due to transfer portal entries. The pair combined for 168 targets this season, hauling in 16 touchdowns in the process.
The best part of the offense was the passing attack led by quarterback Brett Gabbert, but a ground approach may be the only option even with an efficiency number of 124th.
Colorado State changed its style over the course of the season with critical losses at the wide receiver position. Winners of six of their last seven games, the Rams' running back tandem of Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall did damage with 13 touchdowns.
The RedHawks sit outside the top 100 in Line Yards, Stuff Rate and efficiency against the rush.
- Pick: Colorado State · Confidence: 12
This is a very fluid situation on both sides from a roster and coaching perspective.
Longtime defensive coordinator Tony Gibson will not be calling the plays for NC State's 3-3-5, as he's now on the recruiting and transfer portal trail as Marshall's head coach.
Leading receiver KC Concepcion is in the transfer portal and not available for a Wolfpack offense that made progress under quarterback CJ Bailey.
East Carolina's Blake Harrell was the interim head coach following the firing of Mike Houston, but he earned the full-time job and led the Pirates to four straight victories before ending the season with a loss to Navy.
ECU will be without two of its top two tacklers in cornerback Isaiah Brown-Murray and linebacker Zakye Barker.
Stopping the rush and generating Havoc has been the calling card of this NC State defense, the best unit on the field if edge Davin Vann doesn't opt out.
- Pick: NC State · Confidence: 13
The strength of Colorado's defense can neutralize the strength of BYU's offense, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s pass explosives slipped the Cougars inside the top 30.
The Buffaloes' 180-degree turn on defense was led by coordinator Robert Livingston and Heisman Trophy front-runner Travis Hunter.
Colorado ended the season top-25 against pass explosives with a Defensive Havoc rank in the top 15.
The biggest question is whether or not the stars on head coach Deion Sanders' team. However, the second-year coach indicated he expected everyone to play, including quarterback Shedeur Sanders.
BYU ended the season second in creating contested catches under coordinator Jay Hill, a fantastic matchup against Sanders' rank as the 11th-most accurate passer in the nation per on-target rankings.
Success Rate and Finishing Drives favor Colorado, but that's under the assumption Colorado's full roster participates.
- Pick: Colorado · Confidence: 18
Even if Marshall had a full roster and coaching retention, there would have been issues defending Army's heavy ground game. The Thundering Herd finished 73rd in Rushing Success Rate allowed and outside the top 50 in Line Yards while also struggling to defend teams using man-blocking concepts.
Not only does Jeff Monken take bowl games seriously with the Black Knights, but the head coach is 10-4 against the number in his career.
Look for a heavily motivated service academy team to serve as our free square against a Sun Belt team with a dozen starters in the portal for an interim coach.
- Pick: Army · Confidence: 40
Plenty of offensive stars will be missing in this game, as Missouri will be without wide receiver Luther Burden III and Iowa without running back Kaleb Johnson.
Backup quarterbacks are also in play for both teams — factors in a total that has dropped since opening at 43.
Although the Hawkeyes could be missing two key players from the secondary, the Tigers might be without the explosiveness of wide receiver Theo Wease.
Iowa’s defense and special teams are the strongest units for either team, as the Hawkeyes are also the most disciplined from a penalties and offensive momentum killer perspective.
- Pick: Iowa · Confidence: 15
A number of key players on both sides of the ball could opt out for Alabama, including quarterback Jalen Milroe, safety Malachi Moore and linebacker Jihaad Campbell.
The reigning national champions also have plenty of players who could opt out after a long career at Michigan that included a Rose Bowl victory over the Crimson Tide last season.
One staple for Alabama will be wide receiver Ryan Williams, as his 2025 Heisman campaign will begin at this bowl game.
A number of defensive staples for the Wolverines are expected to opt out of this game, allowing a youth movement on the Crimson Tide offense to get an early start on spring practice.
- Pick: Alabama · Confidence: 22
The key to beating the Washington defense is on the ground, and Louisville running back Isaac Brown has been on a heater. The freshman notched four touchdowns over the final two games and ended the season at 4.2 yards after first contact.
Washington ended the season as the best defensive tackling unit in the country, complemented by one of the best pass defenses in college football.
However, the Huskies rank 123rd in Rushing Success Rate allowed and outside the top 100 in Line Yards, giving Louisville an avenue for methodical drives.
Freshman Demond Williams Jr. started the season finale against Oregon, but Washington struggled to create chunk yards all season as one of the worst in EPA.
Despite Cardinals quarterback Tyler Shough's intent to enter the NFL Draft, Louisville still holds an advantage in the rushing attack.
Thank you🙌🏼 #L1C4#RR4L#onceaduckalwaysaduckpic.twitter.com/L8f7f6pkED
— Tyler Shough (@tylershough2) December 11, 2024
- Pick: Louisville · Confidence: 20
Illinois will roll into the bowl without one of the best wideouts in the nation in Pat Bryant. Every offensive piece will be needed for head coach Bret Bielema against one of the best defenses in the nation.
South Carolina finished the season third in pass rush, a large factor against an Illinois offensive line that slipped inside the top 100 in pass blocking.
Havoc has been a staple for the Gamecocks, as ball protection and tackles for loss allowed have hindered the Fighting Illini offense all season.
Even if running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders elects to opt out for the Gamecocks, quarterback LaNorris Sellers has been one of the best RPO quarterbacks in the nation.
Sellers should kick-start his 2025 season against an Illinois defense that's dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
- Pick: South Carolina · Confidence: 33
If motivation is a factor for bowl games, LSU could be in trouble. The Tigers had expectations of winning the SEC and will play in the Texas Bowl against a rising Baylor team.
Baylor head coach Dave Aranda had one of the hotter coaching seats in college football and now looks to face the program he last coached before heading to Waco.
LSU head coach Brian Kelly has had a poor showing in bowls throughout his career, going 6-10 against the spread throughout multiple stops.
Nearly a dozen players for LSU could opt out of the game, while wideout CJ Daniels has hit the transfer portal with his his 56 targets.
After throwing nine touchdowns for over 800 yards in his final three games, look for Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson to continue his heater against a poor LSU coverage unit.
- Pick: Baylor · Confidence: 23
There was plenty of fluidity expected from a roster perspective with this game, but Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy’s entry into the portal was a surprise.
This has boosted Ole Miss in the market, but with bowl practices yet to start, the number of players opting out for the Rebels remains unclear.
Key players in the wide receiver corps and the defensive front could diminish the steam in the market, but Duke will still struggle to find an offensive identity without Murphy.
The Blue Devils have one of the worst Rushing Success ranks in FBS, relying on pass explosives to generate field position and points.
With Jaxson Dart’s confirmed intent to play in this game, Ole Miss is the play with lower confidence on a double-digit spread with other opt-outs expected.
- Pick: Ole Miss · Confidence: 27
North Texas will undergo a quarterback battle in bowl practices to replace transfer portal mainstay Chandler Morris. The new signal-caller for the Mean Green will be without the services of slot DT Sheffield and his 11 touchdowns on 94 targets.
Meanwhile, Texas State re-signed GJ Kinne to a five-year deal as head coach, as the Bobcats' roster will undergo minimal churn heading into the bowl.
Considering North Texas has been unable to produce a pass rush, Havoc or any resistance to an opponent's ground game, the Bobcats should snag a much-needed victory that will translate on the recruiting trail for Kinne.
- Pick: Texas State · Confidence: 30
These teams are headed in different directions, as Minnesota won five of its final seven games while Virginia Tech had lost three straight before a victor over Virginia in the regular-season finale.
The two losses for the Gophers came on a combined eight points to Penn State and on the road at Rutgers.
New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer has brought stability to the passing game, while running back Darius Taylor has been the workhorse of the offense.
There could be possible opt-outs for Minnesota, but this is a program that persuaded a starting quarterback to ditch wedding plans for the Quick Lane Bowl a year ago.
Virginia Tech lost three of its final four games, struggling to keep the roster healthy at multiple positions. The quarterback depth chart includes two quarterbacks who entered the postseason injured. The statuses of starter Kyron Drones and backup Collin Schlee are to be determined.
The Minnesota defense saw mass improvement in 2024 under new coordinator Corey Hetherman, giving the Gophers a massive Havoc advantage against Hokies defense that ranked 117th in Havoc Allowed.
- Pick: Minnesota · Confidence: 24
Pete Lembo had long been a coach in and out of the MAC with a forte in special teams. The new head coach of Buffalo swept the November schedule to secure the Bulls' best record since the Lance Leipold era.
Now, he's looking to two of the best linebackers in the MAC to stop Liberty's potent rush attack in the Bahamas Bowl.
However, the Flames' ground attack is in question, as quarterback Kaidon Salter entered the transfer portal along with more than half of the starting offensive line.
Buffalo’s saving grace is ground explosives on offense. The Bulls own a top-25 rank in EPA on the season with Al-Jay Henderson and the zone-read run concept.
The Flames have struggled with inside zone read, allowing an explosive play on 16% of attempts with a low 46% Success Rate.
- Pick: Buffalo · Confidence: 11
