College Football Bowl Game Predictions: Week 13 CFP Rankings Shift Projected Matchups

Brett McMurphy

Updated:

Nov 23, 2022, 09:13 AM EST

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Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: North Carolina defensive back Cam’Ron Kelly.

Updated College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13

One bowl bid down — 81 to go! On Tuesday night, Miami (OH) defeated Ball State, 18-17, to officially claim the first bowl bid of the season, earning a spot in the Bahama’s Bowl.

Miami (OH) will face an opponent from Conference USA.

In addition to the RedHawks securing the first bowl bid of the 2022 season, the College Football Playoff Committee released its updated rankings ahead of Rivalry Week. All of Tuesday's action prompted updated bowl projections before the rest of the week's games kick off.

There are now 74 bowl-eligible teams to fill the 82 spots. That number will climb to 75 bowl-eligible teams on Saturday with the Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern winner becoming bowl-eligible.

That leaves only seven bowl openings with 13 teams on the verge of six wins. Of the remaining 13 teams needing a win, only four are favored this week:

Buffalo (-4) vs. Kent State
UAB (-17.5) at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana (-5.5) at Texas State
Southern Miss (-3) at UL-Monroe

If all of the favorites win, then we’re up to 79 bowl-eligible teams.

That leaves nine more teams one win shy of earning a bowl berth. However, it won’t be easy for those nine. All of them are underdogs this week:

Missouri (+3) vs. Arkansas
Georgia Tech (+35.5) vs. Georgia
FAU (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
Rice (+14) at North Texas
Auburn (+22) at Alabama
UTEP (+17) at UTSA
Michigan State (+18) at Penn State
Vanderbilt (+14) vs. Tennessee
Miami (+6.5) at Pitt

So, what happens if there aren't 82 bowl-eligible teams? I’m glad you asked.

The highest-ranked teams, based on their Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores from 2020-21 (the latest data available), will earn the bids. If all of the five-win teams lose this weekend, there would be a maximum of seven five-win teams needed. In these projections, I have three 5-7 teams needed: Rice, UNLV and Auburn.

Here's the order of teams based on APR that can finish with five wins. Obviously, if any of these teams get win No. 6, they will go bowling and be removed from the APR list.

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Rice (5-6) 994
Iowa State (4-7) 986
UNLV (4-7) 984
Auburn (5-6) 983* (980)
Missouri (5-6) 983* (973)
Michigan State (5-6) 983* (952)
Miami (5-6) 982
Georgia Tech (5-6) 979
Rutgers (4-7) 977
Indiana (4-7) 976
Cal (4-7) 975
West Virginia (4-7) 974* (960)
Georgia State (4-7) 974* (958)
Buffalo (5-5) 968* (959)
Appalachian State (5-6) 968* (953)

*For teams with identical scores, the tiebreaker is the previous year’s APR from 2019-20.

Here are this week’s projections following Tuesday’s latest College Football Playoff rankings with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

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CFP National Championship Prediction

CFP National Championship
Monday, Jan. 9
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Georgia
-2
Ohio State

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Atlanta, GA
Georgia
-17
USC
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Glendale, AZ
Ohio State
-12
TCU

New Year's Six Bowl Games

Rose Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Pasadena, CA
Oregon
Michigan
-7
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Arlington, TX
Tennessee
-7
Tulane

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
New Orleans, LA
Kansas State
PK
LSU
PK
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Miami, FL
Clemson
Alabama
-4.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Orlando, FL
Ole Miss
Penn State
-4
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Tampa, FL
Florida
Iowa
-2
Music City Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Nashville, TN
Kentucky
PK
Illinois
PK

Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Tucson, AZ
Buffalo
Wyoming
-4
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Jacksonville, FL
South Carolina
Florida State
-9.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
El Paso, TX
Wake Forest
PK
Oregon State
PK

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Charlotte, NC
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
-3
Valero Alamo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
San Antonio, TX
Texas
-4.5
Washington
Cheez-It Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Orlando, FL
Notre Dame
PK
Oklahoma
PK

Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Bronx, NY
Louisville
PK
Purdue
PK
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Houston, TX
Arkansas
-1.5
Oklahoma State
Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
San Diego, CA
North Carolina
Utah
-6.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Memphis, TN
Auburn
Baylor
-7.5
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Annapolis, MD
NC State
PK
Cincinnati
PK
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Phoenix, AZ
Wisconsin
-6
Kansas

Camellia Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Montgomery, AL
Appalachian State
-15.5
Eastern Michigan
Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Birmingham, AL
Memphis
-8.5
Southern Miss
First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Dallas, TX
Texas Tech
-4
SMU

Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 26
⋅
Detroit, MI
Maryland
-20.5
Bowling Green
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 24
⋅
Honolulu, HI
San Diego State
-3
Middle Tennessee
Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Tampa, FL
Syracuse
-4
Liberty

Independence Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Shreveport, LA
Houston
-7.5
Louisiana
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 22
⋅
Fort Worth, TX
Air Force
PK
BYU
PK
New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 21
⋅
New Orleans, LA
North Texas
Troy
-7.5

Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boca Raton, FL
UTSA
-5.5
Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boise, ID
Toledo
-5.5
Utah State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 19
⋅
Conway, SC
UConn
UNLV
-4.5

Frisco Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Frisco, TX
South Alabama
-1.5
Fresno State
Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Las Vegas, NV
Mississippi State
UCLA
-1.5
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Mobile, AL
Ohio
Marshall
-6

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Washington State
Boise State
-2.5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Albuquerque, NM
San Jose State
-5.5
Rice
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Boston, MA
Duke
-2.5
East Carolina

- Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
  Friday, Dec. 16
  ⋅
  Orlando, FL
  UCF
  -9
  Western Kentucky
- Bahamas Bowl
  Friday, Dec. 16
  ⋅
  Nassau, Bahamas
  UAB
  -10
  Miami (OH)

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

Highlighted teams are confirmed to have earned a spot in their respective bowls.

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Brett McMurphy

Action Contributor

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About the Author

Brett is "America's College Football Insider" for The Action Network. Brett was nominated twice for a Pulitzer Prize in investigative reporting, but wasn’t a nominee finalist. A long-time voter in the AP Top 25 poll and for the Heisman Trophy, Brett was named the 2019 Beat Writer of the Year by the Football Writers Association of America. Before joining The Action Network, Brett’s previous stops included ESPN, CBS Sports, the New York Times, Stadium, AOL Fanhouse and the Tampa Tribune.

Follow Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy on Twitter/X.

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