College Football Bowl Projections for Week 6
Before you skip over my mostly witty, sometimes entertaining, opening five or six paragraphs to get to the bowl projections, I wanted to explain one thing before you go hit send on the Twitter machine.
Cincinnati. The big elephant — well, the big Bearcat — in the room.
Cincinnati Bearcats
I do not have Cincinnati projected in the College Football Playoff.
As impressive as UC’s wins against Indiana and Notre Dame have been, the Bearcats do not have many opportunities for quality, top-25 wins the rest of the way.
I don’t hate Cincinnati. I love Cincinnati. I own a “Cincy Committed to Kelly” red towel from 2009 — my best $5 investment ever — and I love, love, love Skyline Chili and Nippert Stadium.
My bowl projections are just that: projections. They are not how the bowls would be filled if the season ended today — but rather, in December.
I also am projecting how I believe the College Football Playoff selection committee will rank these schools at the end of the season. I don’t foresee Cincinnati getting in over any currently undefeated Power 5 school — nor any current 1-loss Power 5 school that finishes the season with fewer than two losses.
That’s basically because the Power 5 schools against whom Cincinnati will be compared will have played (a) a much tougher schedule, (b) more ranked opponents and (c) probably more teams that finish the season with a winning record.
BYU Cougars
BYU is basically in the same position as Cincinnati.
The Cougars could finish the season with seven victories vs. Power 5 opponents — if the Pac-12 is still considered a Power 5 conference in December.
Nonetheless, BYU also would likely lose in the committee’s head-to-head comparison against any undefeated or one-loss Power 5 opponents.
Here are this week's bowl projections. And, as always, each projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Georgia
Action Spread: Pick 'em
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
Action Spread: Georgia -10
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Action Spread: Alabama -12
New Year's Six Bowls
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Arkansas -3.5
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: Iowa vs. Oregon
Action Spread: Iowa -3
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: BYU vs. Cincinnati*
Action Spread: Cincinnati -9.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Michigan vs. NC State
Action Spread: Michigan -6
Other Bowls
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Texas Tech vs. LSU
Action Spread: LSU -5.5
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Ohio State -10.5
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Michigan State vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Mississippi State -0.5
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Action Spread: Western Michigan -4.5
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn
Action Spread: Auburn -5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. USC
Action Spread: USC -1.5
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Maryland vs. Ole Miss
Action Spread: Ole Miss -8
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: North Carolina vs. Florida
Action Spread: Florida -3.5
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: Arizona State -4.5
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Iowa State vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: Iowa State -6
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Action Spread: Texas -3
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Pitt vs. Rutgers
Action Spread: Pitt -11
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Boston College vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Boston College -9.5
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Stanford
Action Spread: Wake Forest -6
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Action Spread: Kansas State -1.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -5.5
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: TCU vs. Utah
Action Spread: Pick 'em
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Action Spread: Tennessee -0.5
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Virginia vs. Houston
Action Spread: Virginia -5.5
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Indiana vs. Toledo
Action Spread: Toledo -0.5
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Ball State vs. South Alabama
Action Spread: Ball State -2
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Hawaii vs. SMU
Action Spread: SMU -13
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: East Carolina vs. Appalachian State
Action Spread: Appalachian State -12
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: Nevada vs. Army
Action Spread: Nevada -5.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Rice vs. San Jose State
Action Spread: San Jose State -7.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State
Action Spread: Boise State -13
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -22
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: UTSA vs. Louisiana
Action Spread: Louisiana -6
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: UCLA vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: UCLA -11
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: Kent State vs. UAB
Action Spread: UAB -11
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Florida Atlantic
Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -7.5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Fresno State vs. UTEP
Action Spread: Fresno State -20
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: UCF vs. Western Kentucky
Action Spread: UCF -11
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Temple vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Liberty -22
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois
Action Spread: Marshall -14
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
