So much for what I wrote last week about Notre Dame having a decent shot at landing a New Year’s Six bowl. The Irish’s loss at Louisville means Notre Dame (5-2) will have to win out to have a chance at either the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowls.
That’s still possible, as Notre Dame will be a big favorite in three of its final games — Pitt, Wake Forest and Stanford — but also must beat USC on Saturday and win at Clemson on Nov. 4.
Last week, I was optimistic Notre Dame could finish 10-2, but now I’m not so sure. So, I have the Irish headed to the ReliaQuest Bowl. It’s technically a Big Ten vs. SEC bowl, but the Tampa bowl has a clause that allows it to choose a team from the ACC — which Notre Dame is affiliated with — if a Big Ten team earns a berth to the Orange Bowl.
With Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all looking like they’ll finish in the top 10, it’s likely one would earn the Orange Bowl bid against an ACC team and allow ReliaQuest to grab the Irish.
Other changes from last week’s projections: I’m going with Oregon as a playoff team. The Ducks must win at Washington this week, and if they do — yes, that’s a big if — they could finish in the top four.
With Wyoming’s victory over Fresno State, the Cowboys are my pick to represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six bowl. However, Wyoming visits undefeated Air Force, so maybe the Falcons will be my Group of Five pick next week.
Here are my Week 7 projections — and each projection includes the projected point spread for each bowl based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
 Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA  Michigan -3.5 Florida State |  Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia -4.5  Oregon |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ  Washington -24  Wyoming |  Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA  Ohio State -2  Texas |
 Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL  Louisville  Penn State -14 |  Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX  Oklahoma  Alabama -2 |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL  Ole Miss -5.5  Wisconsin |  ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL  Notre Dame  Texas A&M PK |  Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ  San Diego St. -9  E. Michigan |  Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN  Florida -0.5  Maryland |  AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN  S. Carolina  Kansas State -7.5 |  Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX  Syracuse  Utah -7 |  TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL  Tennessee -7.5  Duke |  Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX  West Virginia  USC -12.5 |  Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL  UNC -5.5  Kansas |  Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY  NC State  Rutgers -0.5 |  Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA  Tulane -7  Wake Forest |  TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX  Kentucky -12.5  Oklahoma St. |  Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA  Clemson  Oregon State -1 |  Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC  LSU -5.5  Miami |  Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD  Georgia Tech  Memphis -4.5 |  Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ  Nebraska  BYU -2 |  First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX  App State -2  Miami OH |  Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI  Minnesota -4  Ohio |  EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI  UNLV  SMU -8.5 |  Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV  UCLA -7  Iowa |  68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL  Arkansas St.  Tulsa -9 |  Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID  Utah State -3.5  NIU |  Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX  Texas Tech -8.5  Fresno State |  Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL  LA Tech  S. Alabama -12 |  Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL  Missouri -5.5  Arizona |  Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL  Auburn -17.5  South Florida |  Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL  Georgia St. -1.5  FAU |  Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX  Louisiana  UTSA -2 |  Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC  Liberty  Troy -3.5 |  Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA  Iowa State -1.5  Colorado |  LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA  Washington St. -6.5  Air Force |  New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM  Boise State -7  Texas State |  Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL  Georgia Southern  Toledo -3 |  New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA  WKU  Marshall -2.5 |  Bahamas Bowl Dec. 16 • Nassau, Bahamas  C. Michigan -4  FIU |
Betting the Rest of the College Football Season
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