College Football Bowl Game Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 13 Predictions with Projected Spreads

Brett McMurphy

Updated:

Nov 21, 2022, 01:38 PM EST

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Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels (5).

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13

Entering the final week of the regular season, there are 73 bowl-eligible teams qualified to fill 82 spots. There are 17 teams only one win shy of getting bowl-eligible, so there should be more than enough bowl-eligible teams to fill the bowl lineup. Right?

Well, not exactly.

Of the teams needing one win, there are two matchups with the winner becoming bowl eligible: Ball State at Miami (Ohio) on Tuesday and Appalachian State at Georgia Southern on Saturday. That will guarantee at least 75 bowl-eligible teams.

Of the remaining 13 teams needing a win, only four are favored this week: Buffalo (-3) vs. Kent State, UAB (-17) at Louisiana Tech, Louisiana (-5) at Texas State and Southern Miss (-3½) at UL-Monroe. If all of the favorites win, then we’re up to 79 bowl-eligible teams.

That leaves nine more teams one win shy of earning a bowl berth. However, it won’t be so easy for those nine. All of them are underdogs this week: Missouri, Georgia Tech, FAU, Rice, Auburn, UTEP, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Miami.

Nine 5-win teams play teams who have clinched a bowl. All 9 teams needing a win are underdogs via @CircaSports
Mizzou +5 Arkansas
Ga Tech +33 Georgia
FAU +5 WKU
Rice +12 at North Texas
Auburn +21 at Bama
UTEP +18 at UTSA
Mich St +16 at Penn St
Vandy +14 Tennessee
Miami +7 Pitt
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 21, 2022

Depending on how many upsets occur involving these teams, we could fall anywhere from seven teams short or exceed the 82 teams needed. If so, ESPN will create an additional bowl to allow up to 84 bowl-eligible teams.

For this week’s projections, I am projecting we come up three spots short, so I am including three 5-7 teams to fill out the bowl lineup. Those teams, ranked by their Academic Progress Rates, are Rice, UNLV and Auburn.

Here are this week’s projections with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

CFP National Championship
Monday, Jan. 9
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Georgia
-2
Ohio State

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Atlanta, GA
Georgia
-17
USC
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Glendale, AZ
Ohio State
-12
TCU

New Year's Six Bowl Games

Rose Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Pasadena, CA
Oregon
Michigan
-7
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Arlington, TX
Tennessee
-7
Tulane

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
New Orleans, LA
Kansas State
PK
LSU
PK
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Miami, FL
Clemson
Alabama
-4.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Orlando, FL
Ole Miss
Penn State
-4
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Tampa, FL
Florida
Iowa
-2
Music City Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Nashville, TN
Kentucky
PK
Illinois
PK

Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Tucson, AZ
Buffalo
Fresno State
-13.5
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Jacksonville, FL
South Carolina
Notre Dame
-5.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
El Paso, TX
Wake Forest
PK
Oregon State
PK

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Charlotte, NC
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
-3
Valero Alamo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
San Antonio, TX
Texas
-4.5
Washington
Cheez-It Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Orlando, FL
North Carolina
PK
Oklahoma State
PK

Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Bronx, NY
Louisville
PK
Purdue
PK
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Houston, TX
Arkansas
Oklahoma
-3.5
Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
San Diego, CA
Florida State
-2.5
Utah

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Memphis, TN
Auburn
Baylor
-7.5
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Annapolis, MD
NC State
PK
Cincinnati
PK
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Phoenix, AZ
Wisconsin
-6
Kansas

Camellia Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Montgomery, AL
Appalachian State
-15.5
Eastern Michigan
Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Birmingham, AL
Memphis
-8.5
Southern Miss
First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Dallas, TX
Texas Tech
-4
SMU

Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 26
⋅
Detroit, MI
Maryland
-20.5
Bowling Green
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 24
⋅
Honolulu, HI
San Jose State
PK
Middle Tennessee
PK
Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Tampa, FL
Syracuse
-15
UConn

Independence Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Shreveport, LA
Houston
-7.5
Louisiana
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 22
⋅
Fort Worth, TX
Air Force
PK
BYU
PK
New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 21
⋅
New Orleans, LA
North Texas
Troy
-7.5

Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boca Raton, FL
UTSA
-5.5
Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boise, ID
Toledo
PK
San Diego State
PK
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 19
⋅
Conway, SC
Liberty
-6.5
UNLV

Frisco Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Frisco, TX
South Alabama
PK
Utah State
PK
Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Las Vegas, NV
Mississippi State
UCLA
-1.5
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Mobile, AL
Miami (OH)
Marshall
-11

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Washington State
Boise State
-2.5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Albuquerque, NM
Wyoming
-5.5
Rice
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Boston, MA
Duke
-2.5
East Carolina

- Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
  Friday, Dec. 16
  ⋅
  Orlando, FL
  UCF
  -9
  Western Kentucky
- Bahamas Bowl
  Friday, Dec. 16
  ⋅
  Nassau, Bahamas
  UAB
  -4.5
  Ohio

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

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Brett McMurphy

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About the Author

Brett is "America's College Football Insider" for The Action Network. Brett was nominated twice for a Pulitzer Prize in investigative reporting, but wasn’t a nominee finalist. A long-time voter in the AP Top 25 poll and for the Heisman Trophy, Brett was named the 2019 Beat Writer of the Year by the Football Writers Association of America. Before joining The Action Network, Brett’s previous stops included ESPN, CBS Sports, the New York Times, Stadium, AOL Fanhouse and the Tampa Tribune.

Follow Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy on Twitter/X.

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