College Football Bowl Predictions for Week 9: Brett McMurphy’s Projections With Projected Spreads

Brett McMurphy

Updated:

Oct 24, 2022, 09:20 AM EDT

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Adam Hagy/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia’s Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint.

Week 9 College Football Bowl Projections

As we pass the halfway point of the season, it’s time for my bowl projections to — you know — really start projecting. Get serious. No more guesswork. I’ve put away my Magic 8 Ball.

Sure, when a team starts 2-0 it’s easy for me to project them in a New Year’s Six bowl. However, when that team loses four of its next five games, I wonder if it will even become bowl eligible. But enough about Miami.

With only four or five games remaining in the regular season, 27 teams already have reached the magical six-win bowl-eligibility mark. Only two teams — Akron and Charlotte — are mathematically eliminated from winning six games (and Charlotte’s Will Healy was fired Sunday after the 49ers’ seventh bowl-eliminating loss).

Based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings, I can (hopefully) make a more educated projection on which teams reach six wins. Obviously, this is based on the favored team winning every game — which, of course, never happens. But enough about Texas.

Using Wilson’s ratings, I'm projecting there will be 79 bowl-eligible teams to fill 84 bowl spots. That means, five 5-7 teams would need a “bowl waiver” to participate in a bowl. Don’t worry, the NCAA passes out bowl waivers like candy on Halloween — the more, the merrier — so there will be enough teams to play in all 42 bowls.

Excluding the 2020 pandemic season, there have never been more than three losing teams that played in a bowl game in one season. So, we’re on pace to have a record number of losing teams in bowl games. But enough about Iowa.

Based on the bowl system needing five 5-7 teams to fill the openings, I'm currently projecting those teams as Iowa, Kansas, Miami, Michigan State and Texas Tech.

As the bowls get closer, the NCAA will clarify exactly how it will determine the pecking order of 5-7 teams — it will most likely be based on the Academic Progress Rate (APR) rankings.

But until then, here are this week’s projections with Wilson’s projected spreads from his updated college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

CFP National Championship
Monday, Jan. 9
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Georgia
Ohio State
-2.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Atlanta, GA
Georgia
-9.5
Tennessee
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Glendale, AZ
Ohio State
-13
Clemson

New Year's Six Bowl Games

Rose Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Pasadena, CA
Oregon
Michigan
-4.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Arlington, TX
Oklahoma State
-9
Tulane

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
New Orleans, LA
TCU
Alabama
-9
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Miami, FL
Wake Forest
-4
Illinois

Projections for All Other Bowls

Citrus Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Orlando, FL
Penn State
-2.5
Ole Miss
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Tampa, FL
Notre Dame
-4.5
South Carolina
Music City Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Nashville, TN
Wisconsin
Kentucky
-2

Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Tucson, AZ
Eastern Michigan
Wyoming
-3.5
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Jacksonville, FL
North Carolina
Mississippi State
-2.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
El Paso, TX
Duke
UCLA
-12.5

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Charlotte, NC
Florida State
-7
Maryland
Valero Alamo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
San Antonio, TX
Kansas State
USC
-1.5
Cheez-It Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Orlando, FL
NC State
Texas
-10

Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Bronx, NY
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
-3
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Houston, TX
Oklahoma
PK
Arkansas
PK
Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
San Diego, CA
Syracuse
PK
Washington
PK

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Memphis, TN
Baylor
-2
Texas A&M
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Annapolis, MD
Iowa
Cincinnati
-8.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Phoenix, AZ
Purdue
PK
Texas Tech
PK

Camellia Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Montgomery, AL
Toledo
PK
Marshall
PK
Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Birmingham, AL
UAB
Florida
-5.5
First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Dallas, TX
Oregon State
-4.5
Air Force

Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 26
⋅
Detroit, MI
Michigan State
-15.5
Ohio
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 24
⋅
Honolulu, HI
San Jose State
-3
Western Kentucky
Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Tampa, FL
Miami
PK
Houston
PK

Independence Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Shreveport, LA
South Alabama
SMU
-4
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 22
⋅
Fort Worth, TX
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana
-12.5
New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 21
⋅
New Orleans, LA
UTSA
PK
Troy
PK

Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boca Raton, FL
Memphis
-3
Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boise, ID
Buffalo
PK
UNLV
PK
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 19
⋅
Conway, SC
Appalachian State
-4
Liberty

Frisco Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Frisco, TX
Stanford
Kansas
-3.5
Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Las Vegas, NV
LSU
PK
Utah
PK
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Mobile, AL
Kent State
Southern Miss
-6.5

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Washington State
Boise State
-3.5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Albuquerque, NM
San Diego State
-1
North Texas
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Boston, MA
Louisville
-3.5
East Carolina

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 16
⋅
Orlando, FL
UCF
-5.5
BYU
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 16
⋅
Nassau, Bahamas
Rice
-1
Miami (OH)
TBA Bowl**
TBD
⋅
TBD
UTEP
Fresno State
-10

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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Brett McMurphy

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About the Author

Brett is "America's College Football Insider" for The Action Network. Brett was nominated twice for a Pulitzer Prize in investigative reporting, but wasn’t a nominee finalist. A long-time voter in the AP Top 25 poll and for the Heisman Trophy, Brett was named the 2019 Beat Writer of the Year by the Football Writers Association of America. Before joining The Action Network, Brett’s previous stops included ESPN, CBS Sports, the New York Times, Stadium, AOL Fanhouse and the Tampa Tribune.

Follow Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy on Twitter/X.

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