Now that the 82 teams that will go bowling are known, let’s figure out the pairings for each of the 41 bowls.
Before we dive into my newest bowl projections, my loyal readers will remember last week’s projections. The part where I wrote Minnesota would be the only 5-7 team needed to fill the 82nd spot and — guess what — Minnesota is the only 5-7 team headed to a bowl.
Remarkable, huh?
The toughest aspect of the projections is correctly forecasting the four playoff teams and New Year’s Six bowl matchups.
These projections are based on my playoff picks of Georgia, Michigan and Florida State all finishing 13-0 and 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon getting the final spot.
These also are based on FSU making the playoff, which guarantees an ACC team (Louisville) to the Orange Bowl, and Missouri and Penn State earning the final at-large New Year’s Six bids, sending Ole Miss to the Citrus Bowl.
The breakdown of the 82 bowl teams by conference is as follows: Sun Belt (12), ACC (11), Big Ten (9), Big 12 (9), SEC (9), Pac-12 (8), Mountain West (7), AAC (6), MAC (6), Conference USA (4) and Notre Dame.
I will update my projections on Wednesday following Tuesday’s penultimate College Football Playoff selection committee rankings. All the official pairings will be announced on Sunday and/or hopefully on my Twitter (X) feed.
Here are the projections along with the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Michigan Oregon -1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia -11.5 Florida State |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ Washington Alabama -4 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA Penn State -13.5 Tulane |
Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL Ohio State -14 Louisville | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX Texas -3 Missouri |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL Ole Miss -13.5 Iowa | ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL Notre Dame LSU PK | Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ Fresno State -3 Miami OH | Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN Texas A&M -5 Wisconsin | AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN Iowa State -9 Memphis | Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX Miami USC -3.5 | TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL Tennessee -6.5 UNC | Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX Oklahoma -2.5 Arizona | Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL NC State Kansas State -9 | Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY Georgia Tech -1 Rutgers | Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA Boston College UTSA -10.5 | TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX Auburn -0.5 Oklahoma St. | Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA Clemson -2.5 Oregon State | Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC Duke Kentucky -5.5 | Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD Virginia Tech SMU -2.5 | Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ Kansas -4 Maryland | First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX Air Force -3.5 Louisiana | Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI Minnesota -1.5 Ohio | EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI San Jose St. -10 Rice | Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV Utah -10.5 Northwestern | 68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL S. Alabama -13.5 E. Michigan | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID Utah State Bowling Green -3.5 | Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX West Virginia -11.5 Syracuse | Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL Wyoming -7 Georgia St. | Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL Troy -3 Liberty | Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL UCF -3 JMU | Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL Coastal Carolina -1 South Florida | Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX WKU -2 ODU | Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC Marshall Boise State -10.5 | Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA Texas Tech -2 California | LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA UCLA -10.5 UNLV | New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM New Mexico St. Texas State -1 | Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL App State -2.5 Toledo | New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA Arkansas St. Jacksonville St. -1.5 | Famous Toastery Bowl Dec. 18 • Charlotte, NC NIU -1.5 Georgia Southern |