Only one week remains in the college football season, and there are 67 bowl-eligible teams to fill 82 spots with another 24 teams still alive in the fight for bowl eligibility.
Of those 24 teams, 12 are underdogs in their finales, so if there are no upsets — Upsets in college football? Never! — there would be 79 bowl-eligible teams with three openings.
Two of those spots would be filled by James Madison and Jacksonville State since both have six-plus wins and are eligible in their second year reclassifying from FCS to FBS.
Then that would leave room for only one 5-7 team. The 5-7 teams will be based on APR rankings. Here’s my breakdown of which teams are still trying to reach bowl eligibility and an in-depth look at the APR rankings.
I’m projecting Minnesota will be the only 5-7 team needed, but if more were needed, those bids would go to these teams in order if they finish 5-7: Minnesota, Wake Forest, Rice, Mississippi State, UCF and South Carolina.
The biggest challenge projecting this year’s bowl lineup is — surprise, surprise — because of conference realignment. There are some leagues with way more bowl-eligible teams than tie-ins (yes, Fun Belt, I’m specifically talking to you!).
The Sun Belt could have 12 of its 14 teams, including James Madison, in a bowl. Trying to place 12 Sun Belt teams in the available bowls isn’t easy, and that's why one source told me they wouldn’t shocked if a pair of Sun Belt teams may have to face other each in a bowl game.
Regarding the Power 5 leagues, the SEC likely will not fill all of its bowl obligations, in part because I’m projecting three SEC teams in the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowls, and only nine league teams may reach six wins.
The Big Ten could get 11 teams to six wins, while the ACC could have 12, including Notre Dame.
And then there’s USC.
One fascinating item I’ve heard from sources in the past 24-48 hours is where USC could land. I had been projecting the Trojans for the Alamo Bowl, which selects first from the Pac-12 after the Pac-12 playoff/New Year’s Six bowl teams. However, a three-game slide to close the season could plummet USC down to the Sun Bowl, which has the fourth Pac-12 pick.
“They’re a mess,” a bowl executive said. “And no one (in the bowl community) thinks (last year’s Heisman Trophy winner) Caleb Williams will be playing in USC’s bowl.”
Onto the bowl projections, which are based on my playoff picks of Georgia, Michigan and Florida State all finishing 13-0 and Oregon winning the Pac-12 at 12-1.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
 Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Michigan -0.5  Oregon |  Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia -13  Florida State |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ  Washington  Alabama -4 |  Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA  Penn State -12.5  Tulane |
 Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL  Ohio State -13.5  Louisville |  Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX  Texas -4  Missouri |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL  Ole Miss -14  Iowa |  ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL  Notre Dame  LSU -1 |  Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ  Fresno State -3.5  Miami OH |  Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN  Texas A&M -12.5  Wisconsin |  AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN  Iowa State -9  Memphis |  Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX  Virginia Tech  USC -8.5 |  TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL  Tennessee -5  UNC |  Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX  Oklahoma -2.5  Arizona |  Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL  NC State  Kansas State -11 |  Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY  Georgia Tech  Rutgers -0.5 |  Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA  Boston College  UTSA -9 |  TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX  Auburn  Oklahoma St. -1 |  Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA  Clemson -0.5  Oregon State |  Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC  Duke  Kentucky -1 |  Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD  Miami  SMU -0.5 |  Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ  Kansas -9.5  Northwestern |  First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX  Air Force -6  Louisiana |  Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI  Illinois -7  Ohio |  EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI  San Jose St. -7.5  Rice |  Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV  Utah -10  Nebraska |  68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL  Arkansas St.  Jacksonville St. -1 |  Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID  Utah State -2.5  Bowling Green |  Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX  West Virginia -11.5  Syracuse |  Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL  Wyoming  JMU -9 |  Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL  Maryland -6.5  S. Alabama |  Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL  UCF -20  South Florida |  Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL  Georgia Southern  Boise State -11 |  Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX  Minnesota -4  Texas State |  Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC  WKU -1  Georgia St. |  Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA  Texas Tech -15  Coastal Carolina |  LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA  UCLA -10.5  UNLV |  New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM  Colorado St.  New Mexico St. -4 |  Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL  App State -0.5  Toledo |  New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA  Liberty  Troy -4 |  Famous Toastery Bowl Dec. 16 • Charlotte, NC  NIU  Marshall -1.5 |
