So, this is going to be awkward. With one week remaining, there are 77 bowl-eligible teams for 82 spots, and there are two games this week matching 5-5 teams — Virginia at Virginia Tech and Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan.
That guarantees 79 bowl-eligible teams for 82 spots.
However, there are another 12 five-win teams needing only a win this week to become bowl-eligible, providing between 79 and 91 teams for 82 bowl spots.
This is where it gets awkward. Obviously, if there are more than 82 teams with six wins, then — guess what — somebody or somebodies are going to get left out.
Who would be on the outside isn’t clear-cut. Basically each conference has a number of primary and secondary bowl tie-ins. ESPN also has a say in all of its ESPN-owned bowls with the flexibility to choose from numerous conferences, which mostly impacts the Group of Five teams.
And — my favorite each year — there’s always some horse trading between bowls and conferences each year to move teams when needed.
And you thought the College Football Playoff selection committee process was complicated?
Speaking of the playoff, my projected CFP field this week includes top four seeds/conference champions Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Miami (ACC) and Arizona State (Big 12).
The rest of my 12-team playoff field: Boise State (Mountain West champion) and at-large teams Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, SMU and Notre Dame.
Now, back to bowls. If all of the five-win teams somehow lose this week and the bowl system needs teams with 5-7 records to fill the remaining spots, here is the order they would be selected based on APR (Academic Progress Rate),
- Northwestern, 4-7
- Cincinnati, 5-6
- Wisconsin, 5-6
- Air Force, 4-7
- Wake Forest, 4-7
- Auburn, 5-6
- Virginia, 5-6
- NC State, 5-6
- Utah, 4-7 (tie)
Here are my Week 14 bowl projections, including the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.
Also, click on the link to download the free Action Network app. It's the perfect place to check scores, track bets, and read analysis and news.
Projected College Football Playoff Field
*Conference champions projected to receive automatic bids
| 1 |  Oregon* | Big Ten | ||||
| 2 |  Georgia* | SEC | ||||
| 3 |  Miami* | ACC | ||||
| 4 |  Arizona State* | Big 12 | ||||
| 5 |  Ohio State | Big Ten | ||||
| 6 |  Notre Dame | Independent | ||||
| 7 |  Texas | SEC | ||||
| 8 |  Penn State | Big Ten | ||||
| 9 |  Tennessee | SEC | ||||
| 10 |  Indiana | Big Ten | ||||
| 11 |  SMU | ACC | ||||
| 12 |  Boise State* | MWC | ||||
In my projected College Football Playoff field, I have Oregon coming in as the top overall seed as the Big Ten champion, followed by Georgia as the SEC champion, Miami as the ACC champion and Arizona State as the Big 12 champion.
My No. 12 seed is the highest-ranked remaining conference champion, the Boise State Broncos out of the Mountain West. I have the Sun Devils ranked ahead of the Broncos, giving them the No. 4 seed over Boise State.
In my projected field, the Big Ten gets three at-large selections (Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana), the SEC gets two (Texas and Tennessee) and the ACC gets one (SMU).
Independent Notre Dame also cracked the field as my No. 6 seed.
College Football Playoff First Round
 CFP First Round Dec. 20 • State College, PA Tennessee Penn State -0.5  | CFP First Round Dec. 21 • Columbus, OH Boise State Ohio State -18 |
CFP First Round Dec. 21 • South Bend, IN SMU Notre Dame -5.5 | CFP First Round Dec. 21 • Austin, TX Indiana Texas -10.5 |
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Dec. 31 • Glendale, AZ Arizona State Ohio State -17.5 |  Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Jan. 1 • Atlanta, GA Miami Notre Dame -2 |
 Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Oregon -4.5 Tennessee |  Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia Texas -1 |
College Football Playoff Semifinals
 Capital One Orange Bowl Jan. 9 • Miami, FL Georgia -5.5 Miami |  Goodyear Cotton Bowl Jan. 10 • Arlington, TX Oregon Ohio State -3.5 |
CFP National Championship Prediction
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
 Bahamas Bowl Jan. 4 • Nassau, Bahamas  NIU -3  Sam Houston |  Duke's Mayo Bowl Jan. 3 • Charlotte, NC  Nebraska -9  Syracuse |  First Responder Bowl Jan. 3 • Dallas, TX  Minnesota -13.5  UTSA |  TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Jan. 2 • Jacksonville, FL  Missouri -2  Louisville |  Texas Bowl Dec. 31 • Houston, TX  Baylor  Arkansas -1 |  Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Dec. 31 • Orlando, FL  Alabama -14.5  Illinois |  Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 31 • El Paso, TX  Georgia Tech  USC -6.5 |  ReliaQuest Bowl Dec. 31 • Tampa, FL  S. Carolina -2  Iowa |  Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN  LSU -6  Wisconsin |  Independence Bowl Dec. 28 • Shreveport, LA  Army  West Virginia -2 |  Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX  BYU  Colorado -2.5 |  Military Bowl Dec. 28 • Annapolis, MD  UNC -7  Navy |  Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Dec. 28 • Tucson, AZ  Ohio -1.5  San Jose St. |  Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL  Duke  Iowa State -4.5 |  New Mexico Bowl Dec. 28 • Albuquerque, NM  New Mexico PK  North Texas |  Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY  Pittsburgh  Michigan -3.5 |  Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA  Virginia Tech -1  Tulane |  Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA  Clemson -16  Washington St. |  Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 27 • Las Vegas, NV  Ole Miss -11.5  Washington |  AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 27 • Memphis, TN  Texas A&M -3.5  Kansas State |  Birmingham Bowl Dec. 27 • Birmingham, AL  Oklahoma  Kansas -3.5 |  Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 27 • Fort Worth, TX  TCU -2  Vanderbilt |  68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 26 • Mobile, AL  Texas State -1.5  UConn |  Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ  Texas Tech -1.5  Rutgers |  Detroit Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI  Michigan St. -16  Buffalo |  Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 24 • Honolulu, HI  Colorado St.  Memphis -6 |  Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID  Miami OH  Fresno State -0.5 |  Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 23 • Conway, SC  JMU -9.5  Toledo |  Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 20 • Tampa, FL  Florida -17.5  South Florida |  StaffDNA Cure Bowl Dec. 20 • Orlando, FL  WKU -2  Georgia Southern |  New Orleans Bowl Dec. 19 • New Orleans, LA  Jacksonville St.  Marshall -2.5 |  LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk Dec. 18 • Inglewood, CA  California  UNLV -2 |  Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 18 • Boca Raton, FL  Louisiana -3.5  East Carolina |  Frisco Bowl Dec. 17 • Frisco, TX  Bowling Green -9  Arkansas St. |  Camellia Bowl Dec. 14 • Montgomery, AL  Liberty  S. Alabama -3 |
