College Football Bowl Projections for Week 5: Brett McMurphy’s Updated Predictions With Projected Spreads

Brett McMurphy

Updated:

Sep 26, 2022, 09:05 AM EDT

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Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota cornerback Justin Walley.

Week 5 College Football Bowl Projections

Since my initial preseason projections in August, my weekly College Football Playoff picks have included Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State in some fashion.

After the season’s first full month, those three remain carved in stone in my final four.

While projecting the College Football Playoff field has been pretty simple each week, it’s been more difficult determining the Group of Five’s representative in the Cotton Bowl.

In the past few weeks, I had Marshall and Appalachian State slotted in the Cotton Bowl after massive upsets over Notre Dame and Texas A&M, respectively. However, both schools have since lost Sun Belt Conference games. So, the revolving door changes again this week with Cincinnati now my pick to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Onto the rest of my projections. Each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

CFP National Championship
Monday, Jan. 9
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Georgia
Alabama
-1

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Atlanta, GA
Georgia
-9.5
Michigan
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Glendale, AZ
Ohio State
-1
Alabama

New Year's Six Bowl Games

Rose Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Pasadena, CA
USC
Penn State
-1
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Arlington, TX
Washington
Cincinnati
-2.5

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
New Orleans, LA
Oklahoma State
-2.5
Kentucky
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Miami, FL
Clemson
-2.5
Tennessee

Projections for All Other Bowls

Citrus Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Orlando, FL
Minnesota
-1
Ole Miss
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Tampa, FL
Texas A&M
-8
Iowa
Music City Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Nashville, TN
Michigan State
LSU
-5

Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Tucson, AZ
Eastern Michigan
San Diego State
-9
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Jacksonville, FL
NC State
-1.5
Florida
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
El Paso, TX
Wake Forest
-1.5
UCLA

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Charlotte, NC
Maryland
Pittsburgh
-2.5
Valero Alamo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
San Antonio, TX
Baylor
Utah
-4
Cheez-It Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Orlando, FL
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
-3.5

Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Bronx, NY
Wisconsin
-6.5
Syracuse
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Houston, TX
TCU
-1
Mississippi State
Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
San Diego, CA
Florida State
-9.5
Oregon State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Memphis, TN
Kansas
Auburn
-1
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Annapolis, MD
Duke
UCF
-9.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Phoenix, AZ
Illinois
Kansas State
-4.5

Camellia Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Montgomery, AL
Troy
-12
Ohio
Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Birmingham, AL
Louisville
-3
Purdue
First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Dallas, TX
Texas Tech
BYU
-4

Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 26
⋅
Detroit, MI
Rutgers
-5
Central Michigan
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 24
⋅
Honolulu, HI
UNLV
UTSA
-8.5
Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Tampa, FL
Miami
-12.5
Indiana

Independence Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Shreveport, LA
Army
Tulane
-5
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 22
⋅
Fort Worth, TX
Texas
-8
SMU
New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 21
⋅
New Orleans, LA
Western Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
-3

Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boca Raton, FL
Georgia Southern
UAB
-11.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boise, ID
Miami (OH)
Fresno State
-5.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 19
⋅
Conway, SC
Middle Tennessee
East Carolina
-18

Frisco Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Frisco, TX
Iowa State
-8.5
Boise State
Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Las Vegas, NV
Arkansas
-1.5
Oregon
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Mobile, AL
Appalachian State
-2
Toledo

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Washington State
Air Force
-5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Albuquerque, NM
Wyoming
Houston
-14
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Boston, MA
North Carolina
-5
Memphis

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 16
⋅
Orlando, FL
Marshall
San Jose State
-2.5
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 16
⋅
Nassau, Bahamas
Florida Atlantic
Northern Illinois
-1.5
TBA Bowl**
TBD
⋅
TBD
South Alabama
-2.5
Liberty

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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Brett McMurphy

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About the Author

Brett is "America's College Football Insider" for The Action Network. Brett was nominated twice for a Pulitzer Prize in investigative reporting, but wasn’t a nominee finalist. A long-time voter in the AP Top 25 poll and for the Heisman Trophy, Brett was named the 2019 Beat Writer of the Year by the Football Writers Association of America. Before joining The Action Network, Brett’s previous stops included ESPN, CBS Sports, the New York Times, Stadium, AOL Fanhouse and the Tampa Tribune.

Follow Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy on Twitter/X.

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