Heading into Week 14 of the 2024 college football season, there are a number of things that still need to be decided. First and foremost are which teams will make the conference championship.
With so much to look at, I'll dive into each conference and break down which teams are still alive and what they need to make their postseason dreams come true.
I'll help provide clarity on each conference below to help you better understand which games still hold significant meaning for the conference standings.
Keep in mind that these implications can speak to motivation this late in the season.
Let's take a look at my college football conference championship scenarios for Week 14 of the NCAAF season.
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AAC
This one remains straightforward. Tulane will face Army in the conference title game.
However, we still don't know where that game will take place. If both teams win their final league game (Tulane vs. Memphis, Army vs. UTSA), then whoever finishes highest in the College Football Playoff rankings will host. I assume that would be Tulane after Army's loss to Notre Dame.
If both teams lose those respective games, a composite computer rating will be used. If only one wins, that team will host.
ACC
SMU has clinched a spot in the ACC championship. The Mustangs will face Miami if the Hurricanes beat Syracuse. However, if the Orange can pull off the upset at home, Clemson would head to Charlotte.
Big Ten
Oregon has clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship. The Ducks will most likely take on Ohio State in a rematch of a thriller from earlier this season. The Buckeyes simply need to beat Michigan as nearly three-touchdown favorites.
However, if Michigan somehow pulls off the upset, that would open the door for Penn State, assuming the Nittany Lions take care of business at home as a large favorite against Maryland. If both Ohio State and Penn State inexplicably lose, Indiana would go if it beats Purdue as an even bigger favorite than both Ohio State and Penn State.
If all three somehow lose, Ohio State would go.
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Big 12
OK, this is where things can potentially get very chaotic, which would be on brand for the Big 12 this season. Believe it or not, headed into the final weekend, eight teams still have a chance at making it to AT&T Stadium.
Let's start with the four teams tied atop the standings at 6-2 right now:
- Arizona State (-7.5 at Arizona)
- BYU (-12.5 vs. Houston)
- Colorado (-16.5 vs. Oklahoma State)
- Iowa State (-2.5 vs. Kansas State)
Each are favorites in their regular season finale, with three laying over a touchdown. If all four take care of business, Iowa State would face Arizona State in the Big 12 championship due to tiebreakers.
If only two of the four win, then those two would obviously make it. However, things get more interesting if only one loses. Iowa State is the most likely to do that, in which case we would get an Arizona State-BYU rematch. If ASU loses, Iowa State takes on BYU. And if it's only Colorado, it would be Arizona State-Iowa State.
The wildest three-team tiebreaker would involve BYU being the lone team among the top four to suffer a loss. In that case, it would come down to the results of the other Big 12 games. Colorado would actually win tiebreakers in this scenario unless West Virginia beats Texas Tech. If the Cougars go down, Iowa State would only make it if Texas Tech, Baylor, and Cincinnati each win.
Bottom line: among the top four teams, Iowa State and Arizona State are in the best position to win the three- and four-team tiebreakers. Iowa State controls its own destiny, while ASU would clinch a spot with a win unless Houston, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor and Cincinnati all win.
Colorado is in the most perilous position since the Buffaloes need to win and hope both BYU and West Virginia lose to finish in the top-two if three or more teams are tied.
Now, if you want to root for complete chaos, there's the possibility of an eight-way tie for first place if each of the top-four lose and both Baylor (vs. Kansas) and TCU (at Cincy) win since an Iowa State loss would mean Kansas State finishes 6-2, as would the winner of Texas Tech-West Virginia. If this occurs, we would get Baylor vs. Texas Tech.
Here's the easiest path for the five second-place teams, which assumes a win in their last game:
- Baylor: losses by at least three of the top four
- Kansas State: losses by at least three of the top four plus a Baylor loss
- Texas Tech: top four teams all lose plus Kansas beats Baylor or TCU beats Cincinnati
- West Virginia: top four teams all lose (or only Iowa State wins), plus wins by Kansas and TCU
For what it's worth, even though TCU can finish tied for first or second, I don't believe there is a pathway for the Horned Frogs.
Conference USA
Jacksonville State will host the title game.
If Liberty wins at Sam Houston on Friday, the Flames will clinch the other spot, which would make the Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State completely meaningless on Saturday. However, if Sam Houston wins, it would need Western Kentucky to lose at home on Saturday against a Jacksonville State squad not really playing for anything.
If Western Kentucky wins in that scenario, the Hilltoppers would face Jacksonville State for a second straight week in the C-USA title game.
To sum up:
- Jacksonville State: clinched and will host
- Liberty: clinches with a win on Friday
- Sam Houston: needs a win plus a WKU loss
- Western Kentucky: in with a win if Liberty loses
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MAC
The MAC is now a four-team race.
Ohio (vs. Ball State) controls its own destiny. With a win over Ball State, the Bobcats would take on the winner of Bowling Green vs. Miami. That's our most likely championship matchup.
Believe it or not, Buffalo still has an outside chance. The Bulls would need to finish in a three-way tie for second place with Miami and Ohio, which would require a win plus losses by both Miami and Ohio.
If Bowling Green loses to Miami, it can still get to Detroit if Ball State pulls off an upset over Ohio, while Miami would need losses by both Ohio and Buffalo (vs. Kent State) in the event of a loss.
Mountain West
Boise State has clinched a spot in the Mountain West title game, which it will likely host.
The Broncos will take on UNLV if the Rebels can win a home game over Nevada as large favorite. Colorado State is also still alive, but would need to win its regular season finale (vs. Utah State) and have UNLV lose.
If both lose, UNLV will likely get the nod due to a computer rankings tiebreaker.
SEC
After all of the chaos last week, the SEC championship race gained clarity. Georgia has clinched a spot in Atlanta and will take on the winner of Texas-Texas A&M. It's that simple.
Sun Belt
We still have divisions in the Sun Belt, so let's start with the East, which is now a two-team race between Marshall and Georgia Southern.
- Marshall clinches with a win over JMU or a loss by Georgia Southern (vs. App State)
- Georgia Southern clinches with a win plus a Marshall loss
In the West, Louisiana holds a one-game lead over both Arkansas State and South Alabama. As a result:
- Louisiana clinches with a win on Saturday (vs. ULM) or South Alabama loss (vs. Texas State) on Friday
- South Alabama owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Louisiana, so it would clinch with a win plus a Louisiana loss.
If there's a three-way tie at the top, South Alabama would win the West due to the division record tiebreaker since all three teams would have 1-1 records against one another. While Arkansas State can share a division title, it has been eliminated from the Sun Belt championship game, unless the league decides to alter its three-way tiebreaker scenarios this week.
Keep in mind the host is still TBD as well.
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