We're in the heart of the college football calendar with just about a month of the regular season left, which means we now have a decent amount of data on all 133 FBS teams.
There aren't too many big games this weekend outside of Michigan vs. Penn State, but that doesn't mean there's a shortage of good betting opportunities.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines that I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you get the most CLV possible early in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Akron vs. Miami (OH) Odds
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
Akron vs. Miami (OH) Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Miami Ohio -19.6 | Miami Ohio -24.1 | Miami Ohio -21.5 |
Miami (OH) quarterback Brett Gabbert is out for the rest of the season with an injury, which is a big blow —but it's not as big in a game like this.
Last week against Ohio, Miami backup Aveon Smith attempted only 11 passes and threw for 103 yards. However, it didn't matter at all because the RedHawks ran the ball 46 times for 188 yards.
Rashad Amos made the most of his fourth start of the season, putting up 163 yards on just 21 carries.
Miami (OH) should be able to run the ball with a lot of success because Akron is weakest up front. The Zips rank 92nd in EPA/Rush Allowed because they give up way too many big plays on the ground, ranking 125th in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Surprisingly, though, Akron does have a pretty good secondary that allows only 7.3 yards per attempt and ranks inside the top 40 in Passing Success Rate Allowed. So, I think we'll see Miami (OH) have a big-time focus on the run.
Most importantly, though, is the fact that Miami (OH) has been really efficient once it crosses the opponent's 40-yard line, averaging 4.35 Points per Opportunity — good for 32nd in the nation. Meanwhile, Akron is 87th in that same category defensively.
Akron quarterback DJ Irons went down for the season after the overtime loss to Buffalo at the end of September, and since that point, things have not gone well with Jeff Undercuffler Jr. under center.
Undercuffler is averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt with a 55.7 PFF passing grade and a -0.31 EPA/Pass rating, which is 131st among the 143 quarterbacks in FBS who have attempted at least 100 passes.
Sure, he had a good game last week against Kent State, which has one of the worst secondaries in the country (129th in EPA/Pass Allowed), but he will now face an above-average secondary.
The other problem is Akron can't run the ball effectively. The Zips are averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and rank 117th in EPA/Rush, while the RedHawks come in at 43rd in EPA/Rush defensively.
All three projection models are showing value on Miami (OH), so I'd grab it now at -16.5.
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Auburn vs. Arkansas Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Auburn vs. Arkansas Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Auburn -0.1 | Auburn -0.2 | Arkansas -0.2 |
The Arkansas offense came alive off the bye week after firing offensive coordinator Dan Enos. The Razorbacks put up 39 points and 481 yards in an overtime win over Florida to make head coach Sam Pittman feel slightly better about where he sits.
Arkansas went back to what made it so successful the past few years: running the ball with Raheim "Rocket" Sanders and KJ Jefferson. The pair combined for 195 yards and averaged over 5.0 yards per carry on Saturday.
While that's all and good, the Florida front seven has been below average, ranking outside the top 70 in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Auburn is much better in the front seven, ranking inside the top 40 in those two categories.
The problem with Jefferson comes in the passing game, as he's a little too reliant on big plays. The Razorbacks rank 10th in passing explosiveness but 102nd in passing success rate. That's the reason Jefferson sits outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass.
Auburn's secondary has been exposed against LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia. But in every other game, it's been really good, ranking 21st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 26th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
In its last two games, it's held both Vanderbilt and Mississippi State under 5.5 yards per attempt.
Auburn's Payton Thorne has been a below-average quarterback this season, but he's been playing much better over the last two games.
Image via PFF.
However, the Auburn offense is designed around being successful on the ground. The Tigers are running the ball on 60.7% of offensive plays and have been pretty efficient in doing so, ranking 37th in Rushing Success Rate.
Lead back Jarquez Hunter has been an absolute bulldozer of late, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 4.05 yards per carry after contact while forcing 22 missed tackles.
Arkansas' rush defense numbers may look good overall for the season, but in conference play, they've been well below average. Mississippi State is the only team it's held under 4.0 yards per carry. Still, it held Western Carolina, Kent State and BYU to a combined 164 yards rushing.
These are spots Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze historically has been really solid in as well. He's 13-4 against the spread as a touchdown or shorter underdog.
All three projection models have this right at a pick'em, so I would grab Auburn at +3 now before it moves.
