Last year, Week 11 featured a number of upsets — in addition to a number of scores that might intrigue you, since we will see the same matchups in Week 11 this season:
- No. 10 Auburn defeated No. 1 Georgia 43-10
- No. 2 Alabama pulled out a 31-24 comeback win at Mississippi State
- No. 13 Ohio State rolled No. 12 Michigan State 48-3
- No. 24 LSU beat Arkansas 33-10
Whenever you think a November college football slate doesn't have a lot of intrigue, expect a wild Saturday. Although it's not like bettors need any added drama to get hyped for a college football weekend.
To help narrow down your final bets, we asked a group of our staffers for their one favorite Saturday pick. Regardless of your betting style, you should find something that catches your eye — or at least helps you make more informed betting decisions for Week 11 — in the picks below.
We will get things started with four afternoon games and then work our way into the night card. And as always, don't forget about the quick grabs at the end, where you will find a few underdog moneyline shots.
We hope you at least pick up one key nugget of information that can help you make a more informed wagering decision. I think you'll find plenty. Let's jump in.
In case you're curious, our staff's favorite college football bets are 62-57-1 +5.05 units on the season
*All odds pulled overnight on Friday Nov. 8.
Ken Barkley: Ole Miss-Texas A&M Over 67
12 p.m. ET on CBS
This is a little sketchy because there are scattered showers and winds headed for College Station, but assuming they clear out before the game (which they are going to as of now), I really like this over.
Texas A&M, rather impressively, has the 34th ranked offense in S&P+, and has done it while facing Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Clemson. That’s insane and a sign that it should shine against inferior opponents.
Well, look who’s coming to town! Ole Miss and its 111th ranked S&P+ defense. This will be the worst defense A&M has faced all season save for the cupcake non-conference games.
And on the other side, the Aggie defense will face the best offense it has seen in the last 5-6 weeks. All those games against grind-it-out SEC teams have allowed this total to stay under 70, but I expect this to get into the 70s with ease.
John Ewing: Mississippi State +24 (at Alabama)
3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
This is a great spot to sell high on Alabama after the Tide rolled LSU 29-0 last Saturday.
Since 2005, teams coming off a win against a top 10 opponent by double-digits have gone 66-94-3 (41%) ATS in their next game. Nick Saban’s teams have gone 4-12 ATS in this scenario.
Furthermore, The Action Network Power Rankings make this game Bama -20, while S&P+ has the Tide winning by 17.8 points. There is clearly value on the underdog.
Danny Donahue: Baylor +14.5 (at Iowa State)
3:30 p.m. ET on FS1
Attacking the bottom part of the Top 25 is among my favorite bets in college football.
Public bettors tend to get carried away when they see a little number next to one team and not the other — regardless of the spread. That opens the door to some fade value on newly ranked teams in the 20-25 range.
When a team in that range plays a decent unranked opponent (.500 or above) and has a public backing (more than 55%), the unranked opponent has gone 164-123-9 (57%) ATS since 2005.
Steve Petrella: Texas State +20 (vs. Appalachian State)
4 p.m. ET on ESPN3
On an ugly-ish November card, I felt the need to get really ugly. These two teams played a defensive slugfest last season, and I expect another one.
Texas State has been much better in the last month and has played competitive in Sun Belt action all season at 6-3 ATS. The Bobcats have a Second Order Win Total of 5.5, which means they’ve played almost 2.5 wins better than their 3-5 record indicates. There’s been a lot of bad luck at play.
App State gets quarterback Zac Thomas back for this game, which should be a big boost, but Texas State boasts an above average defense at 61st in S&P+ and should hang inside this big number. I think the market is still pricing App State like it was during its early-season dominance.
Stuckey: Miami +3 (at Georgia Tech)
7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
I love capping games with triple option teams because it really narrows the focus on one side of the ball. And in this case, Miami has the run defense to shut down Georgia Tech's elite option attack that averages the fifth-best yards per carry number (6.2) in the nation.
Miami's defense only allows a stingy 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. However, the real key will be the havoc their defense causes. The Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in Havoc Rate (No. 2 on the DL) and lead the nation in tackles for loss at over 10 per game. That means they will be able to get into the backfield and cause losses on first and second down to put Georgia Tech behind the sticks, where its offense will run into trouble.
It's a great spot to buy a Miami team low after three straight losses, especially considering this Canes team was built to shut down an option attack.
Collin Wilson: Temple +5 (at Houston)
7 p.m. ET on CBSSN
If you somehow missed our podcast …or my CW9 column …or our weekly moneyline underdog piece, I'm here to remind you I'm all about the Owls this weekend.
The Owls have shown numerous times this year they are more than equipped to shut down mobile quarterbacks, which they till face with Houston. Temple can contain the Cougars' explosiveness and should have a shot to pull this one out straight up.
A little extra prep won't hurt either for a team that has thrived on the road the past two seasons.
PJ Walsh: Clemson-Boston College Under 58
8 p.m. ET on ABC
Both Clemson and Boston College run the ball effectively, ranking seventh and 23rd, respectively, in rushing yards per game. When two teams that average at least 215 yards on the ground per game match up, the under is 230-180-7 (56.1%) since 2005, according to Bet Labs.
On the other side of the ball, Clemson’s stout defense allows only 269.2 yards per game (third in the country), while BC’s D checks in at a respectable 49th with 373.6 ypg allowed.
And finally, the weather forecast doesn’t appear to be conducive for big plays through the air with 14 mph winds expected throughout. College football games played in double-digit breezes have finished under the closing total 54.3% of the time since 2005.
Quick Grabs
Sean Koerner: Virginia Tech +3
Peter Jennings: Colorado +210
Jason Sobel: Colorado +210 (0.5) and Oregon +165 (0.5)
