Once again we've reached the bittersweet culmination of the college football season. Michigan and Washington will meet at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas to compete for the National Championship. As you'd imagine, there's plenty of talent on the field and both gamblers and fantasy players will be watching this talent.
There were some expectations for Washington this season following an 11-2 season and with a returning starting QB. But even optimistic fans would have largely put the ceiling at a PAC 12 Championship. Now, the Huskies have an opportunity to win a National Championship ahead of their move to the Big Ten.
In the most squeaky clean fashion, Michigan steamrolled their way through the regular season and a Big Ten Championship. And then they conquered their playoff demons with a comeback win over Alabama.
Finding Value with Futures
The 2023 Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels, has used all of his eligibility and is off to the NFL. Many of the true contenders for the 2023 season are also off to the NFL. Because of that, the field for viable Heisman trophy candidates is wide open and there are a couple of long shot betting opportunities in the National Championship game, or at least from the teams' 2024 rosters.
We'll take a look at the odds currently listed on FanDuel.
Washington's Heisman Hopefuls
The expectation is that Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, Ja'lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan and Dillon Johnson will be off to the NFL. So that will open up opportunities in the Kalen Deboer offense. Additionally, with the move to the Big Ten, Washington will maintain its spot in the national spotlight that it earned this season even with some regression.
New transfer QB Will Rogers is likely the best bet for the Heisman trophy. In four seasons at Mississippi State, Rogers played in 42 games. He completed 69.3 percent of his passes for an average of 6.6 yards per attempt. That level of production won't win the Heisman, but it's the projection of likely improvement that makes him somewhat viable. Penix improved his 7.3 yards per attempt by more that 20 percent following his transfer. At +3000, Rogers is the only projected starter listed (backup QB Austin Mack is listed at +10000). He's a viable long shot bet.
If one of Ja'lynn Polk or Jalen McMillan choose to return to school, they'd also be intriguing future bet options at odds around +15000.
Michigan's Heisman Hopefuls
Along with Washington, Michigan will be a part of the new look Big Ten so there will be no shortage of big games on the national stage for the three time defending Big Ten Champions. While Blake Corum is going to the NFL, there's some question about QB JJ McCarthy and RB Donovan Edwards.
McCarthy is tied for the ninth best odds to win at +2000. Barring a significant shift in the offensive scheme, he's going to have an uphill battle for the award. As was the case during this season, he'd required other candidates to lose the award to open a path for him to win despite significantly lower stats.
Donovan Edwards isn't listed with odds at the time of this writing. Should he decide to return, he'd be the lead back in one of the most run-heavy offenses. He'd be worth a very small speculative bet at odds over +25000.
Fantasy Perspective
There's plenty of talent in this game that will be departing for the NFL. Because of that the fantasy community that doesn't religiously follow college football with tune in to this game at a higher rate than normal. Here are a few of the most intriguing prospects.
As a quick note, most rookies are highly dependent on their situation and can have major swings in value based on the team that drafts them so these rookie draft ranges are super preliminary projections.
Washington Skill Players Heading to the NFL
Penix revived his career with a transfer from Indiana. Not only did he managed to stay healthy for two straight seasons, but his productivity skyrocketed. From an efficiency standpoint, he raised his Adjusted Yards per Attempt from 7.1 at Indiana to 9.3 at Washington. Mock Draft Database lists him as the QB4 in their consensus draft board and gives him a late first round grade. His limited mobility lowers his prospect ceiling for fantasy which probably makes that QB4 ranking apt for not only his draft capital, but also his fantasy stock.
Odunze is undeniably a top 5 WR in the draft and between now and the draft, there will be some analysts that attempt to prop him up above Marvin Harrison Jr. During the 2023 season, Odunze accounted for a 31.7% share of the team receiving yards. He had a weighted dominator rating of 0.325 which was in the 95th percentile and he averaged 2.97 yards per team pass attempt which ranked in the 97th percentile. Odunze is going to be an easy first round pick in dynasty rookie drafts this spring.
Polk and McMillan can likely be lumped together. They accounted for a 22.9 and 15% market share of receiving yards (adjusted for games played), respectively. Polk ranks in the 88th percentile of yards per team pass attempt and McMillan ranks in the 57th. Both project as Day 2 NFL draft picks and likely in the second round of rookie drafts.
Michigan Skill Players Heading to the NFL
With some of the projected NFL draft decisions, the RB draft class has lost some of its shine. Corum may turn into the biggest beneficiary of these decisions. Corum has been a contributor on the Michigan offense since 2020, but he emerged as one of the nation's top backs in 2021. He could have left for the draft after the 2022 season, but he made the choice to return and help his school achieve its goals in 2023. Over the his career, he's amassed 3,603 rushing yards and 56 touchdowns. He projects as a Day 2 selection in the NFL draft likely as a fringe top five back in the class. As is the case with most rookie RBs, his immediate impact in the NFL is largely situationally dependent; but Corum projects as a late first to early second round pick in dynasty drafts.
Wilson is maybe the most interesting prospect on the Michigan roster. His top-end speed is expected to help him at the combine as will his final season production. At face value, Wilson's 735 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns isn't overly impressive, but from a schematic perspective he's an analytics scout's dream. Wilson accounted for a 24% market share of receiving yards and 50.4% of receiving touchdowns. His 0.29 weighted dominator rating ranks in the 89th percentile. And while his raw yardage may lack, he accounted for 2.15 yards per team pass attempt which ranks in the 88th percentile. Wilson is likely a Day 2 draft selection and should be a popular second round pick in rookie drafts.
McCarthy is currently projected as the QB6. During points of this season, some analysts began projecting McCarthy as a potential first round pick. Most of that buzz has died down and McCarthy now projects as a Day 2 selection in the range of QB8. McCarthy's 9.9 AY/A ranks 11th, nationally. McCarthy's mobility gives him a little more upside than Penix, but with a falling draft capital he's only worth a late round pick in rookie drafts.
Devy Drafts
Returning Washington Skill Players
It's possible that any of Johnson, Polk and McMillan return to school.
For the WRs, both would project as top ten WRs and as future Day 2 NFL draft picks. With Odunze out of the picture, both Polk and McMillan could receive the volume required to become an early first round pick.
Rogers is a low-ceiling devy pick because of his production at Mississippi State. There should be some projection of improvement due to the success of the Deboer offense, but he's not a meaningful pick for devy.
Backup QB Mack is a former four-star prospect who was in the top 20 QBs of his class. In super deep leagues, he's worth a speculative add because of the high productivity projection for the future.
Returning Michigan Skill Players
Edwards is likely to return to Michigan, despite the option to enter the draft. He's averaged 5.4 yards per carry for his career and accumulated 1,558 rushing yards in three seasons, but more noteworthy for Edwards is his work in the passing game. He has averaged 1.8 receptions per game and 10.5 yards per reception in his career. With Corum gone, he'll be atop the depth chart of the top rushing programs in college football. He'll also have additional opportunities to demonstrate a high aptitude for catching the ball out of the backfield. Because of his versatility, he projects as a Day 3 pick, currently; but another season could bring him up to late Day 2 capital. He'd be one of the top 5 to 10 RBs in college football from a talent perspective and would be an early devy pick.
If McCarthy chooses to return to school, he'll have an opportunity to improve his draft capital into the first round. As mentioned above, he's already an efficient QB, but his system's reliance on the running game hinders his raw production. Any improvements could lift McCarthy's stock.
In deep leagues, fantasy players should keep a close eye on incoming freshmen Jadyn Davis and Jordan Marshall for the future. Both are highly rated four-star prospects who will be joining the team in 2024.
