Have you ever thought about placing a futures bet on Boston College? If not, you're not alone.
Boston College last won 10 games in 2007 when it was led by future NFL MVP Matt Ryan. To illustrate how long ago that was, Ryan has since completed a 15-year NFL career and now works as an analyst for CBS Sports.
Now, with Thomas Castellanos at the helm, the Eagles have another quarterback who may lead them to a special season.
3-Headed Monster Leading the Eagles
After transferring in from UCF, Castellanos posted just a 15:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio and completed 57% of his passes in his first year as a starter. However, he showcased his dual-threat ability by adding 1,113 rushing and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
This year, Castellanos has shown early signs of improvement as a passer with nine touchdowns against two interceptions through BC's first three games. He ranks 10th nationally in yards per attempt and sixth in QBR.
While the Eagles now rank second in the country in passing explosiveness as a team, their bread and butter is still running the football.
Boston College is averaging 206 rushing per game with a committee of backs led by Treshaun Ward and Kye Robichaux.
The bulk of that took place in Boston College's first two games against Florida State and Duquesne. Then, the Eagles' run game was stymied at Missouri last week.
However, they still jumped out to a 14-3 lead and covered as 16.5-point underdogs with a 27-21 loss to a top-10 SEC team.
Boston College has a win at Florida State when the Seminoles were ranked in the top 10, but at 0-3, they'll be hard-pressed to re-enter the top 10 at any point this season. Two of Florida State's losses have come in ACC play, and it still has Clemson and Miami among its final six conference games. With that, we can now effectively remove the preseason ACC favorite from the race.
Favorable Schedule for Eagles
Boston College's schedule, meanwhile, is much more favorable.
It has Michigan State and Western Kentucky at home over the next two weeks, where it's a touchdown favorite over the Spartans and will be favored over the Hilltoppers to resume ACC play at 4-1.
From there, its remaining schedule is extremely manageable as well.
Off the top, BC avoids Miami and Clemson this season — the two favorites to win the league. It also has three road games in a five-game stretch at Virginia, at Virginia Tech, vs. Louisville, vs. Syracuse and at SMU. Then, it closes the season with home games against North Carolina and Pitt.
Even though Boston College is 3-0 against the spread and has a manageable road ahead, the Eagles still haven't garnered much respect from the analytics community.
SP+ has Boston College 57th overall behind all ACC teams except Virginia and Syracuse. Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson's updated betting power ratings project Boston College as a double-digit underdog against Virginia Tech, Louisville and SMU, along with a touchdown underdog spot against North Carolina.
However, we've already seen Virginia Tech lose outright as a 13.5-point favorite at Vanderbilt.
Similarly, SMU was a 27.5-point favorite at Nevada and needed to rally in the second half just to win outright. It wasn't as fortunate against BYU the next week, losing at home as a 13.5-point favorite.
Additionally, Boston College beat an SMU team that started Kevin Jennings, who has just wrestled the starting job away from Preston Stone. North Carolina is still a question mark as well after losing Drake Maye to the NFL and then Max Johnson in the season opener.
Can Boston College Overcome Its Weaknesses?
Now, Boston College isn't without its own warts. Last season, it allowed 20 touchdowns through the air while picking off just eight passes, and it ranks 103rd in Passing Success Rate and 93rd in Havoc thus far.
However, what it does have is a clear identity. Led by an ascending dual-threat playmaker at quarterback, Boston College wants to run the ball, control the clock and shorten the game for its defense.
It also has a head coach who has found success before. Bill O'Brien led Penn State to a 15-9 in two seasons and reached the National Championship as Alabama's offensive coordinator in 2021-22. He also led the Houston Texans to the playoffs four times in a five-year span.
With this in mind, DraftKings has Boston College at +850 to reach the ACC Championship. These odds are simply too high with its remaining schedule.
While BC avoids Clemson and Miami, they could still have big seasons. However, Clemson lost four ACC games last season with an inconsistent quarterback in Cade Klubnik. A couple more losses in conference play wouldn't be shocking.
Meanwhile, with Cam Ward at quarterback, I believe Miami is the best team in the ACC. However, Miami the Hurricanes have reached the ACC Championship just once since joining the conference in 2004.
The Hurricanes still have a lot to prove in the Mario Cristobal era.
For Boston College to reach the ACC Championship, it needs just one of Clemson and Miami to fall out of the running. Assuming one of those two teams is the Eagles' opponent, I prefer taking Boston College to reach the conference championship game as opposed to winning it, which is +2500 at DraftKings.
Given that Miami and Clemson would both be over a touchdown favorite over Boston College, we wouldn't have many hedging options pregame.
In recent years, the ACC has been a conference that has cannibalized itself. A team with two losses has made the ACC title game in two of the last four games, and every team except Florida State and Louisville lost at least two games last season.
Now, SMU, Cal and Stanford are in the mix as well. If Boston College goes 6-2 in ACC play, it'll have a shot to reach the conference title game.
A 7-1 would be preferred, though, as that would likely give the Eagles more favorable tiebreaker scenarios.
If Boston College can take advantage of its weak schedule behind Castellanos, it'll have a chance to reach the ACC Championship for the first time in 16 years.
Pick: Boston College to Make ACC Championship (+850)
