The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season will be announced on Tuesday.
Only 12 teams in the power conference remain with one loss or better, as the selection committee projects to have a handful of two-loss teams all vying for a spot in the bracket.
The remaining four weekends in November will act as a knockout of the playoff, making the game between two-loss LSU and two-loss Alabama an elimination game in Week 11.
Our futures piece will take a look inside each Power 4 conference with the goal of finding value in the market offerings before the CFP rankings are released.
Each remaining team will have a win probability assigned to sweep the remaining schedule, indicating where an investment is needed.
Our initial futures article carries value with Colorado 18-1 for the Mountain West and a 12-1 ticket on a Colorado team that received help in the Big 12.
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ACC
Conference Contenders: Miami (5-0), SMU (4-0), Clemson (5-1), Pitt (3-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Miami (49th), Clemson (43rd), SMU (38th), Pitt (29th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- Miami 98%
- SMU, 88%
- Clemson, 71% (29% ACC)
- Pitt, 59%
Bet to Make Now: Miami to Win ACC (-190)
The Hurricanes project a minimum 6-point favorite in a potential ACC Championship game against SMU or Clemson. That spread would fetch moneyline odds of -240, well above the market number to win the conference.
There's no hesitation with a 98% probability that Miami sweeps the final ACC games against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse.
Big Ten
Conference Contenders: Indiana (6-0), Oregon (6-0), Ohio State (4-1), Penn State (4-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Penn State (56th), Ohio State (23rd), Oregon (17th), Indiana (14th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- Indiana, 72%
- Oregon, 98%
- Ohio State, 95%
- Penn State, 93%
Bet to Make Now: Penn State to Win National Championship (+2000)
The loss to Ohio State may have been a blessing in disguise for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has a 93% chance to sweep the remaining schedule thanks to the softest strength of schedule among the contenders.
A loss to the Buckeyes sends head coach James Franklin back in the Big Ten pecking order, meaning the winner of Ohio State and Indiana should face Oregon in Indianapolis.
Penn State has a high probability of being blocked by Big Ten tiebreakers thanks to its loss to Ohio State. This not only puts Penn State in the driver's seat of being a one-loss team for the selection committee but potentially earning the coveted fifth seed.
The fifth-ranked College Football Playoff team will host a playoff game against a team that's most likely a Group of Five school. Assuming the Nittany Lions win, a quarterfinal against a Big 12 or ACC champion awaits.
The fifth seed is in a great position to make the national semifinals, and Penn State is certainly on that path.
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Big 12
Conference Contenders: BYU (5-0), Iowa State (4-1), Colorado (4-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Colorado (54th), BYU (47th), Iowa State (40th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- BYU, 72%
- Iowa State, 58%
- Colorado, 57%
Bet to Make Now: BYU to Win Big 12 (+200)
The Cougars have plenty of wiggle room on the remaining schedule thanks to Kansas State's loss to Houston in Week 10.
BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12 standings with four conference games to go. A previous victory over the Wildcats could play a factor if head coach Kilani Sitaki loses two of the final four games.
BYU beat Kansas State on Sept. 21, giving itself a tiebreaker that could come into play.
SEC
Conference Contenders: Texas A&M (5-1), Georgia (5-1), Tennessee (4-1), Texas (3-1), LSU (3-1), Vanderbilt (3-2), Ole Miss (3-2), Alabama (3-2)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Ole Miss (27th), Alabama (22nd), Vanderbilt (19th), Texas A&M (18th), Texas (16th), Tennessee (13th), LSU (9th), Georgia (5th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- Texas A&M, 60% (SEC 54%)
- Georgia, 80% (SEC 60%)
- Tennessee, 78%% (SEC 72%)
- Texas, 91%
- LSU, 68%
- Vanderbilt, 13%
- Ole Miss, 80%
- Alabama, 86% (SEC 81%)
Bet to Make Now: Ole Miss to Make SEC Championship (+1600)
Plenty of chaos is expected down the stretch in the SEC, especially in terms of settling tiebreakers.
Georgia would miss out on the SEC Championship if it's tied with LSU and Texas A&M. A pivotal game in Oxford could send the Bulldogs out of the playoff bracket and push the Rebels to the front of the conversation.
Ole Miss has two SEC losses already, creating an elimination game against Georgia.
The Rebels are underdogs of less than a field goal in the market, but they could very well win on their home field in Week 11.
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has logged six interceptions over the past two games, a humbling factor against a Rebels defense that ranks 19th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Instead of an Ole Miss +2.5 ticket, extend that moneyline number into two more victories to compete for the SEC Championship in Atlanta on Dec. 7.
