The first College Football Playoff rankings were released last Tuesday following several decisions made by the selection committee.
SEC teams with a loss in Georgia, Texas and Tennessee all ranked higher than undefeated Indiana and BYU. Two-loss Alabama also placed in the top 12, ahead of fellow two-loss SEC teams Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
The chaos came from the SEC and ACC in Week 11, as two of the top four seeds were upset.
Miami took a loss at Georgia Tech — a result that may propel SMU to a top-four seed when the Week 12 rankings are released. Georgia also fell on the road to Ole Miss, giving both teams two losses in conference play and overall.
Alabama held strong against LSU, giving the SEC five two-loss teams that are in contention for a conference championship.
The remaining three weekends in November will act as a knockout for the CFP, with LSU getting thumped from national title futures in Week 11.
The focus this week will be Tennessee and Georgia, as the Bulldogs are playing for their season as hosts in Sanford Stadium.
Our weekly futures piece will take a look inside each Power Four conference with the goal of finding value in the conference, playoff and national title futures markets.
Each remaining team will have a win probability assigned to sweep its remaining schedule, indicating where an investment is needed.
Last week's offerings added Ole Miss 16-1 to reach the SEC Championship and BYU 2-1 to win the Big 12, next to our conference futures of Colorado 12-1 and Colorado State 18-1.
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ACC
Conference Contenders: SMU (5-0), Miami (5-1), Clemson (5-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Miami (54th), Clemson (44th), SMU (35th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- Miami, 94%
- SMU, 88%
- Clemson, 75% (68% ACC)
Bet to Make Now: Miami to Win ACC (+125)
The Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech last week, decreasing their chance for an appearance in the ACC Championship from 81% to 65%.
While the loss is dramatic, Miami still holds the inside track to compete for the conference in Charlotte.
Clemson has a number of hurdles with three weeks remaining and needs another loss by the Canes. Miami projects as a favorite of more than three touchdowns against Wake Forest and as a 13-point favorite on the road at Syracuse.
Thanks to Miami’s 4-0 record against common opponents with Clemson and the Tigers' recent loss to Louisville, the Hurricanes have value in an ACC Championship where they'd be 4.5-point favorites over SMU.
Big Ten
Conference Contenders: Indiana (7-0), Oregon (7-0), Ohio State (5-1), Penn State (5-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Penn State Penn State (57th), Ohio State (18th), Indiana (8th), Oregon (4th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- Indiana, 72%
- Oregon, 98%
- Ohio State, 94%
- Penn State, 95%
Bet to Make Now: Penn State to Win National Championship (+1800)
Indiana projects as a 13-point underdog at Ohio State and as a 9-point underdog at the neutral site of Lucas Oil Stadium against Oregon.
Using Action Network's parlay calculator, the Hoosiers' true value of winning the Big Ten is 18-1 — not the current 10-1 offered in the futures market.
While Indiana is capable of beating the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe, there's no value in wagering on IU head coach Curt Cignetti to win the Big Ten in his first season.
With Oregon and Ohio State similarly power-rated, there's also no value in coin-flip odds to win the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes have plenty of work to do with Indiana and Michigan before heading to Indianapolis for a projected rematch with Oregon.
As for the Ducks, a loss in the conference championship game to Ohio State could make the national title path much more difficult than the +350 offered in the market.
Meanwhile, Penn State continues to roll through softer competition with ease. In fact, PSU has a projected 95% chance of sweeping the rest of the regular-season schedule.
The Nittany Lions are all but guaranteed to host an opening-round game in the College Football Playoff, an advantage that should cement Penn State as one of the final eight teams in the country.
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Big 12
Conference Contenders: BYU (6-0), Colorado (5-1), Iowa State (4-2), Kansas State (4-2), Arizona State (4-2), West Virginia (4-2)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: West Virginia (56th), Colorado (49th), Iowa State (48th), Kansas State (46th), BYU (43rd), Arizona State (40th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- BYU, 78%
- Colorado, 60%
- Iowa State, 55%
- Kansas State, 72%
- Arizona State, 40%
- West Virginia, 51%
Bet to Make Now: Kansas State to Win Big 12 (+650)
Kansas State has one of the easier schedules remaining in the Big 12, listing as a double-digit favorite in the next two games against Arizona State and Cincinnati.
The ensuing Iowa State game would be an elimination game, and the Wildcats need Colorado to take a loss.
While the Buffaloes deal with a much tougher schedule down the stretch, Kansas State would play two potential coin-flip games against the Cyclones and in the Big 12 Championship.
There may be relief for Kansas State, though.
When Colorado makes a trip to Lawrence, the Buffaloes would project as a small underdog to Kansas.
Although the Sunflower Showdown is paramount for Kansas residents, a Jayhawks victory over Colorado could send the Wildcats to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship.
SEC
Conference Contenders: Texas A&M (5-1), Tennessee (5-1), Texas (4-1), Georgia (5-2), Ole Miss (4-2), Alabama (4-2), Missouri (3-2), LSU (3-2)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Ole Miss (66th), LSU (39th), Missouri (33rd), Georgia (29th), Alabama (26th), Texas (7th), Tennessee (6th), Texas A&M (5th)
Chance to Sweep November Schedule:
- Texas A&M, 62% (SEC 43%)
- Tennessee, 78% (SEC 67%)
- Texas, 91%
- Georgia, 88% (SEC 63%)
- Ole Miss, 97%
- Alabama, 96% (SEC 94%)
- Missouri, 72%
- LSU, 77%
Bet to Make Now: Georgia to Win SEC Championship (+1300)
After betting Ole Miss to make an SEC Championship appearance last week, the Rebels knocked Georgia down the conference standings. More importantly for Ole Miss, the remaining schedule is the easiest of any other team in the SEC.
Now, the league is faced with a scenario where a seven-way tie could occur, as five teams would stay home when the SEC is decided in Atlanta on Dec. 7.
More than likely, Texas vs. Texas A&M in Week 14 will decide one of the spots in the conference title game.
The Aggies find themselves in a must-win scenario for the remainder of the season, projecting as short favorites at Auburn on Nov. 23rd before hosting the Longhorns as a touchdown underdogs.
Georgia and Tennessee are also in an elimination game this weekend — the last SEC game for a Bulldogs team scheduled to play UMass and Georgia Tech in the final two weeks.
A Bulldogs victory would give nearly every team at the top of the conference two losses, creating a scenario for Alabama to make it to Atlanta thanks to owning the toughest conference schedule. The conference strength of schedule comes into play when a handful of teams end with the same record.
Outside of Texas, Georgia and Alabama, there are plenty of unlikely scenarios needed for any other team to advance to Atlanta.
The best bet is Georgia victory this weekend to conclude the SEC race at 6-2.
An Iron Bowl victory by Auburn and a Texas A&M win over Texas may still be needed in Week 14, but at the current market price, there are plenty of avenues to get this Bulldogs ticket to the window.
