We're one week from the announcement of the College Football Playoff rankings, and nearly two dozen teams have a shot to make one of the top 12 spots.
The sour feelings on the expanded playoff centered around the potential watered-down regular season, making rivalry games and conference marquees irrelevant.
Little did consumers realize that the entire month of November would act as a playoff with a number of elimination games.
The Power 4 conferences feature 22 teams with two losses or fewer to this point, making the projected bar to be left out of the playoff set at nine wins or less.
Our futures piece will take a look at our Power 4 conferences this week, featuring notes and wagers that might be ripe for investment.
Our formula for determining value will come with a heavy handicap on the remaining schedule and each team's chance of sweeping the remainder of that schedule.
Last week’s Midseason Futures assessment left readers with Colorado State 18-1 for the Mountain West and Colorado 12-1 for the Big 12.
Now, let's look at Week 10 for more futures.
 |  |  |  |
ACC
Conference Contenders: Clemson (5-0), Miami (4-0), SMU (4-0), Pitt (3-0), Virginia Tech (3-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: SMU (55th), Miami (54th), Clemson (28th), Pitt (21st)
Bet to Make Now: Miami to Win ACC (+110)
SMU currently sits as a touchdown favorite over Pitt in a game that will serve as a knockout for the ACC Championship.
The tiebreaker in the scenario of three unbeaten conference teams would be “combined ACC opponents' win percentage.” That lends itself to Miami meeting Clemson in Charlotte if SMU finishes the conference schedule in a three-way tie.
Head coach Mario Cristobal has his program in great shape, as Miami is projected a minimum 15-point favorite in every remaining game this season.
Per our Action Network Betting Power Ratings, the Hurricanes would be a field-goal favorite over Clemson in Bank of America Stadium on Dec. 7.
Clemson has a much different ACC schedule, with dangerous road trips in consecutive weeks at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.
With the Hurricanes still listed at plus-money to win the conference, an ACC ticket has more value than the current "To Make the Playoff" odds of -650.
Big Ten
Conference Contenders: Indiana (5-0), Oregon (5-0), Penn State (4-0), Ohio State (3-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Oregon (22nd), Indiana (17th), Penn State (16th), Ohio State (14th)
Bet to Make Now: Indiana to Make CFP (+100)
The Ducks are in the driver's seat for a trip to the Big Ten Championship, as road trips to Michigan and Wisconsin are the remaining hurdles. Oregon is favored by more than two touchdowns in Ann Arbor this weekend, and a similar projection is expected for a trip to Camp Randall on Nov. 16.
Head coach Dan Lanning is expected to be a favorite over every team in Indianapolis, but the Ducks would be favorites of under a field goal against both Ohio State and Penn State.
Because there's minimal value in Oregon futures, the hottest name in the conference becomes Indiana.
The Hoosiers will be on upset alert against Michigan State this weekend, but the question remains on whether a +100 ticket to make the CFP or an 11-1 Big Ten ticket has more value.
Assuming Penn State and Oregon finish out the regular season undefeated with a higher win percentage of conference opponents, Indiana will be on the outside looking in for a trip to Indianapolis.
Penn State also has no value in the Big Ten market, as a parlay of underdog wins over Ohio State and Oregon in the championship game fetches a 5-1 number.
The Hoosiers project as 13-point underdogs against Ohio State on Nov. 23, generating a moneyline around +400.
An open parlay card of their remaining schedule that includes Ohio State totals +780, leaving minimal value for Indiana to appear in the Big Ten title game and win as an underdog.
The better bet is a single loss to Ohio State and an at-large selection by the College Football Playoff committee.
| | | |
Big 12
Conference Contenders: BYU (5-0), Iowa State (4-0), Kansas State (4-1), Colorado (4-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Colorado (63rd), Kansas State (56th), BYU (52nd), Iowa State (38th)
Bet to Make Now: Kansas State to Win Big 12 (+270)
The only head-to-head game between the four teams with less than two Big 12 losses is Iowa State and Kansas State in Week 14.
If BYU takes a loss on its remaining schedule, it wouldn't be a negative from a tiebreaker perspective against other Big 12 contenders. However, the Cougars project as favorites of less than a field goal in three straight games against Utah, Kansas and Arizona State.
A moneyline bet on the Cougars rolled over is a better wager than the current market for the playoff and Big 12.
For Kansas State, a win-and-in scenario exists after it took a loss to BYU earlier this season. The Wildcats hold a tiebreaker over Colorado and would own another with a victory over Iowa State in the last game of the regular season.
A parlay of two projected coin-flips against Iowa State in the regular-season finale and Big 12 Championship game would pay +270, where the current market resides for the Wildcats.
However, that number shrinks if any other opponent makes the conference title game. Kansas State will be the investment with the first hedge opportunity coming in Ames in Week 14.
SEC
Conference Contenders: Texas A&M (5-0), Georgia (4-1), Tennessee (3-1), Texas (3-1), LSU (3-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Texas (20th), LSU (19th), Tennessee (18th), Texas A&M (7th), Georgia (6th)
Bet to Make Now: Georgia to Make SEC Championship (+110)
It doesn't matter if Texas A&M survives its trip to South Carolina this weekend — the regular-season finale against Texas is a College Football Playoff knockout game for both teams.
The Aggies' ability to field two different styles at quarterback elevates the program to a national title contender, but the schedule remains the second-toughest of any team in the SEC.
The Longhorns are not expected to be challenged until a trip to Kyle Field on Thanksgiving weekend, projecting as a double-digit favorite in Fayetteville on Nov. 16.
A projected matchup against Georgia in the SEC Championship gives no value to Texas' current 2-1 number to win the conference.
The one-loss team with the best chance to make the championship game in Atlanta is the Bulldogs.
Head coach Kirby Smart has the toughest schedule remaining of all SEC teams, but only two hurdles remain from competing for the conference title.
Georgia will travel to Ole Miss on Nov. 9, projecting as a 4.5-point favorite. Then, in Week 12, the Bulldogs will host Tennessee as favorites of at least a touchdown.
Those games correlate to odds of -120 for Georgia to sweep and make the championship game.
With a +110 to make the SEC title game popping in the market, Georgia is the best investment in Week 10 when it comes to making a trip to Atlanta.
