College Football Futures, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Midseason Conference Championship Check-In

College Football Futures, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Midseason Conference Championship Check-In article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictures (left to right): Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel.

The college football offseason market begins at the end of a national title game.

Before the second week of January 2024 was over, national title futures were procured on Georgia with more than a full calendar year until the 2025 National Championship game.

College football has become a 365-day betting calendar in regard to win totals, conference futures and Games of the Year.

With every FBS team playing half of their schedule already, there's no a better time to check on our inventory of preseason bets.

As a number of head coaches and coordinators have been fired, some teams may be on “quit watch.” Other teams entered the season with new head coaches and may hit their stride in the second-half stretch.

Here's a look at each conference race, along with an assessment of some of the most popular tickets that were taken in the preseason.



Atlantic Coast Conference

ACC

Conference Contenders: Clemson (5-0), Miami (3-0), SMU (3-0), Pitt (2-0), Duke (2-1), Syracuse (2-1), Virginia (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: SMU (60th), Miami (56th), Clemson (38th), Syracuse (37th), Duke (35th), Pitt (23rd), Virginia (20th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Clemson +300

With only three games left on the ACC schedule, there's no time to breathe with a number of undefeated teams remaining in the conference.

Clemson will not play SMU or Miami, but a trip to the ACC Championship may require a sweep of the remaining schedule.

The Tigers project as 9-point favorites over Louisville and then take consecutive road trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Hedge spots will only be required as long as the Mustangs and Hurricanes continue to win in ACC play.

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Bet to Make Now: SMU +650

Our ACC Preview loved SMU with conference futures in scope at 15-1 or better.

The main driver for the love of the Mustangs centered around experience and a schedule that was conducive to making a trip to Charlotte to compete for the ACC title.

Including Duke this weekend, SMU will be a double-digit favorite in almost every game remaining on the schedule. The lone potential hedge spot comes against Virginia, where the Mustangs project as 8-point favorites.

This is shaping up to be a highly competitive ACC race, but with SMU bringing the easiest remaining schedule, there's still room to buy the Ponies.


Big Ten Conference

Big Ten

Conference Contenders: Indiana (4-0), Oregon (4-0), Penn State (3-0), Illinois (3-1), Wisconsin (3-1), Ohio State (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Illinois (31st), Wisconsin (29th), Oregon (24th), Ohio State (20th), Indiana (17th), Penn State (16th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Oregon +200

The Ducks took care of business against Ohio State in Week 8 and now hold the third-easiest remaining schedule of any team in the Big Ten.

Oregon projects as a 13-point favorite in the final road games against Michigan and Wisconsin.

A Ducks victory in Autzen this weekend against a contending Illinois team will pave the way in the tiebreaker department, as Oregon does not face fellow undefeated teams in Indiana and Penn State.

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Bet to Make Now: Wisconsin +11000

Plenty has to happen for this ticket to have legs, starting with a victory over Penn State at home this weekend. This ticket would have a rolling hedge weekly, getting back the initial ticket and future hedges over the next four weeks.

The Badgers will have a coin-flip game at Iowa before a massive underdog spot against Oregon. The new rushing attack led by Tawee Walker may be the difference, as the Ducks are more vulnerable to the rush than the pass.

After struggling to find points through changes with coordinator Phil Longo’s offense and the loss of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, the Badgers have rattled off 94 points in the past two Big Ten games.

This ticket needs plenty of caretaking over the next month, but there's no denying Wisconsin has overcome early-season offensive struggles.



Big 12 Conference

Big 12

Conference Contenders: BYU (4-0), Iowa State (4-0), Kansas State (3-1), Texas Tech (3-1), Cincinnati (3-1), Colorado (3-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Colorado (64th), Kansas State (54th), BYU (51st), Iowa State (46th), Texas Tech (42nd), Cincinnati (30th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Iowa State +1200

There may be no other conference future sitting in a better spot than Iowa State for the Big 12. The Cyclones needed a comeback against UCF to stay undefeated but now enter a much-needed bye week.

There are five games in November within the conference, three of which take place within the friendly confines of Ames.

Iowa State will be a heavy favorite until the last two games of the season, where it's currently projected as a 6-point favorite over Utah on Nov. 23.

The toughest test comes at the end of the season with Kansas State, but if the undefeated mark still stands. there could be a scenario where a Big 12 Championship appearance has already been locked up before the Wildcats come to town.

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Bet to Make Now: Colorado +1200

The decision comes between short odds on an undefeated BYU team or one-loss Colorado.

The Cougars have a tougher schedule down the stretch, hitting the road for three of the final five Big 12 games. Those venues include the Bounce House in Orlando, Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake and Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.

BYU also holds a tiebreaker over Kansas State, as the Wildcats need the Cougars to drop two games to get back into the conference race.

Meanwhile, Colorado enters Week 9 with the easiest remaining schedule of any Big 12 team, projecting as a favorite in each remaining game. Only two road trips remain — a Nov. 9 trip to Texas Tech and a Nov. 23 game in Arrowhead Stadium to take on Kansas.

Another plus from the Buffaloes? No team in the race for the Big 12 holds a tiebreaker over Colorado except Kansas State.

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Southeastern Conference

SEC

Conference Contenders: Texas A&M (4-0), LSU (3-0), Georgia (4-1), Tennessee (3-1), Missouri (2-1), Texas (2-1), Vanderbilt (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Texas (26th), Tennessee (25th), Missouri (18th), LSU (12th), Georgia (10th), Texas A&M (9th), Vanderbilt (8th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Georgia +200

Only three games remain on the Bulldogs' SEC schedule after their upset of Texas in Austin.

A bye week falls before Georgia will be a heavy favorite over Florida.

A pair of tough spots await in early November as a short favorite on the road against Ole Miss and a touchdown favorite spot against Tennessee at home.

The best course of action is to hold onto the SEC futures and have the ticket serve as a moneyline wager in the SEC Championship game.

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Bet to Make Now: Texas +200

While the 350-1 odds on Vanderbilt are enticing, the Commodores have a schedule full of landmines that includes Texas this weekend. The Longhorns will enter Nashville with an axe to grind after losing to Georgia on their home field.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian will take a much-needed bye week to get the roster healthy before hosting both Florida and Kentucky with a trip to Arkansas in between.

The Longhorns are projected as a minimum two-touchdown favorite in every SEC game leading up to the finale. To end the regular season, Texas will travel to College Station as a short favorite in a game that should determine who moves on to Atlanta to compete for the SEC.

A Texas conference ticket at this point has more than a month to sit before a potential hedge against the Aggies.



American Athletic Conference

AAC

Conference Contenders: Army (6-0), Navy (4-0), Tulane (3-0), Memphis (2-1), North Texas (2-1), Charlotte (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: North Texas (90th), Charlotte (89th), Tulane (88th), Memphis (87th), Army (53rd), Navy (47th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Army +2200

Only two AAC games remain on Army's schedule as a new member of the conference.

First up is a post-Air Force hangover spot at North Texas. The conference schedule concludes on Nov. 30, hosting a UTSA defense that has found success in stopping the rush.

The good news is the season finale with Navy is not a conference game but could serve as a play-in game for the College Football Playoff.

Army projects as a double-digit favorite over both North Texas and UTSA, so this ticket can wait for the American Athletic Conference Championship game.

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Bet to Make Now: Navy +380

As much as Memphis looks appetizing at odds closer to 7-1, Navy holds a firm tiebreaker over the Tigers. The Midshipmen would have to take two losses in the final four games to be pushed out of the conference championship game.

Navy will be a heavy favorite against Rice, South Florida and East Carolina.

The Nov. 16 game against Tulane should determine who goes to the conference title game, giving Navy backers the lone hedge spot in AAC futures leading up to a championship game appearance.

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Mid-American Conference

MAC

Conference Contenders: Western Michigan (3-1), Miami OH (2-1), Buffalo (2-1), Toledo (2-1), Eastern Michigan (2-1), Ohio (2-1), Bowling Green (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Buffalo (134th), Toledo (130th), Miami OH (128th), Ohio (125th), Eastern Michigan (123rd), Western Michigan (120th), Bowling Green (113th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Bowling Green +700

With a short number in the preseason, hedging this MAC future will be troublesome. The Falcons will finish the season with a road trip to Toledo in Week 9 while hosting Western Michigan and Miami (OH) in Week 11 and Week 13.

Bowling Green is a short underdog this weekend against the Rockets, projecting as the last time the team will not be favored this season.

Both Miami (OH) and Western Michigan will be within a touchdown as underdogs, making the smallest of hedge spots this weekend in Toledo.

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Bet to Make Now: Buffalo +1100

Pricing means everything in the futures market, and while Buffalo may be the best option, the number could be even better after playing Ohio this weekend.

The Bobcats are 6.5-point favorites against the visiting Bulls, so a loss could send Buffalo to 2-2 in the standings. The second half of the MAC schedule is the easiest in the country with Akron, Ball State and Kent State on the slate in November.

A trip to Ypsilanti will see a coin-flip game against Eastern Michigan but also represents Buffalo's only roadblock in the final month of the season.

Buffalo has surprised to this point, with victories over Toledo and Northern Illinois. The loss to Western Michigan enters box score fraud territory, as the Bulls averaged 8.1 yards per play to just 6.9 from the Broncos.



Mountain West Conference

Mountain West

Conference Contenders: UNLV (2-0), Boise State (2-0), Colorado State (2-0), San Diego State (2-0), San Jose State (3-1), Fresno State (2-1), New Mexico (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: New Mexico (108th), Colorado State (107th), Fresno State (101st), Boise State (80th), UNLV (77th), San Jose State (76th), San Diego State (65th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: UNLV +650

The schedule is smooth sailing after a Week 9 battle with Boise State on a Friday night in Las Vegas. There's no hedge on the game against the Broncos, as the Mountain West has a complicated process of determining tiebreakers to compete in the conference championship game.

Expect UNLV’s overall strength of schedule and nonconference wins over Houston and Kansas to help leap the Rebels into the title game, which may not be needed with a victory over Boise State.

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Bet to Make Now: Colorado State +1800

A coin-flip at Nevada on Nov. 2 and an underdog spot at Fresno State on Nov. 23 may be the only roadblocks for the Rams on the road to the Mountain West Championship game.

The Rams entered the season with the softest conference schedule of any team without Boise State and UNLV on tap. Colorado State owns the tiebreaker on San Jose State after a victory over the Spartans on Oct. 12.

A sweep of the schedule guarantees the Rams' placement with UNLV and Boise State set to face each other in Week 9.

The offense has had a metamorphosis from a pass-only team, as the rushing attack led by Avery Morrow now sits top-50 in Success Rate while the passing game still logs a number of explosives.

Look to hedge on Nov. 23 with Fresno State, as the Rams charge their way to a conference championship appearance.


Sun Belt Conference

Sun Belt

Conference Contenders: East: Georgia Southern (3-0), Old Dominion (2-1), Marshall (2-1). West: Louisiana (3-0), ULM (3-0), Texas State (2-1), Arkansas State (2-1), South Alabama (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Arkansas State (111th), Texas State (105th), South Alabama (103rd), Louisiana (97th), Old Dominion (96th), Georgia Southern (94th), Marshall (93rd), ULM (74th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Texas State +500

Two games are critical on the remaining schedule, both projected within a field goal. The Bobcats will host Louisiana on Oct. 29, serving as a bookmark to hedge an initial investment.

A road trip to South Alabama in the season finale also serves as a field-goal game but with minimal value left on the short odds from the preseason.

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Bet to Make Now: Arkansas State +3000

The Red Wolves were blown out by Texas State in Week 7, serving as the only blemish on the schedule. A victory over South Alabama paves the way for a showdown with the undefeated teams in the West Division in Louisiana and ULM.

A 30-1 future will need spots to hedge.

Arkansas State enters Week 9 as a touchdown favorite to Troy before entering a bye week. The first hedge on the Red Wolves comes at Louisiana on Nov. 9.

If Arkansas State can upset the Ragin’ Cajuns, its final games take place in Jonesboro against ULM and Old Dominion.



Conference USA

Conference USA

Conference Contenders: Liberty (3-0), Western Kentucky (3-0), Jacksonville State (2-0), Sam Houston (2-1)

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Western Kentucky (126th), Sam Houston (124th), Liberty (114th), Jacksonville State (109th)

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Popular Preseason Wager: Sam Houston 25-1

A hedge in Tuesday's FIU game would have made sense with quarterback Hunter Watson out, as a move to Jase Bauer could have resulted in a significant drop-off offensively.

While it wasn't the prettiest of games, the Bearkats picked up the win and are still very much alive with a 3-1 record in Conference USA and the second-easiest remaining schedule in the conference.

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Bet to Make Now: Liberty +125

The Flames will be a favorite over every team from here on out with the help of home-field advantage in critical spots. L

iberty currently projects as a minimum 6-point favorite in a two-game home stretch against Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky. Even a split of those two games would be enough to earn a trip to the Conference USA Championship.

Not only will the Flames be the favorite in the championship game, but an extra day of rest will be gifted to Liberty thanks to its regular-season finale against Sam Houston taking place on Friday, Nov. 29.

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About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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