Sportsbooks routinely hang stale numbers during the college football offseason, but there’s one that demands action from bettors right away.
I'm diving into the 2025 futures market with a Big 12 conference future on my mind.
Let's dive into my college football futures and NCAAF picks for the 2025 season.
Utah to Win Big 12 (+1200)
One of the persistent narratives last offseason was that the Big 12 had the potential to be the most wide-open and fun conference in America. As it turned out, the conference was even more unpredictable than advertised.
When the Big 12’s preseason poll came out in July, Arizona State was picked to finish dead last. The Sun Devils ended up winning 11 games and drilled Iowa State in the conference title game by 26 to earn a bye into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
But it wasn’t just Arizona State that defied expectations. Colorado and BYU were picked to finish 11th and 13th in the Big 12, respectively. The Buffaloes and Cougars finished 7-2 in Big 12 and joined the Sun Devils as the league’s third rags-to-riches story.
Could we see more chaos on the field and in the standings this fall? Absolutely, for three reasons.
The first is recruiting. There aren’t any recruiting juggernauts in this conference. In terms of high school classes, every team in the Big 12 fell somewhere between 24th (TCU) and 73rd (UCF) in the national rankings, per 247Sports.
The average class ranked 48th across the league. And the teams near the bottom of the high school class rankings, like UCF and Kansas, augmented their roster with very strong transfer classes.
The Jayhawks crushed it in the portal, adding four potential defensive starters from programs like Alabama, Oklahoma State, South Carolina and Texas. Unlike the Big Ten and SEC, where there's a clear talent advantage for the top four or five teams, the Big 12 has roster balance top to bottom.
The second element that indicates we could be headed for another wild season in the Big 12 is coaching continuity. Fourteen of the 16 teams return their head coach, and half have been at their current school for five or more years.
What’s even more interesting is that UCF and West Virginia brought back former coaches this offseason to rejuvenate their programs.
Rich Rodriguez won 60 games in seven seasons as the Mountaineers' head coach in the mid-aughts, and Scott Frost won every Coach of the Year honor in 2017, leading the Knights to a share of the national title (Colley Matrix).
But the biggest reason to expect chaos again this fall is quarterback play. Ten programs return full-time starters under center, and three others hit it big with signal-callers in the portal.
Houston added four-star Conner Weigman from Texas A&M, Colorado gained Kaidon Salter and his 77 career touchdowns, and Utah hit the G5 lotto by landing Devon Dampier.
Utah has always been undervalued in the futures market because it's the opposite of a sexy program. Kyle Whittingham has been manning the ship since Urban Meyer left in 2005.
His teams are built around a strong defense coached by former Broyles Award finalist Morgan Scalley. But the Utes have fallen a bit flat offensively, favoring ball control and conservative play-calling. Then the injury bug hit, and Utah fell off a cliff last season.
Well, that’s about to change with Dampier and new offensive coordinator Jason Beck in Salt Lake City.
Dampier was far and away the best running quarterback last season. He ran for over 1,100 yards and 19 touchdowns and will be playing behind the most experienced line in the Big 12.
I expect a massive jump for the Utes, who finished 96th in SP+ offensive efficiency last fall. An offensive resurgence, a favorable home schedule (Texas Tech, Arizona State and Kansas State), and a coach with two conference titles in the past four seasons… count me in.
