The college football offseason is filled with plenty of action without deliverables.
Home-field advantage numbers are the first step, but those come way before Game of the Year lines can be posted. A National Championship future can be placed at any time, but there's only one team in consideration for 2024.
Schedules are often delayed until February for some conferences, as realignment and portal news rages on between bowl season and spring practice.
Once TARP is complete when the spring transfer portal window closes, it's time to invest in the win total market.
This piece will look at a handful of win totals taken down and posted on the Action Network App.
Here's a look at the first Power Four win totals taken for the 2024 season:
Our next step is a swipe at the Game of the Year market. Then, we'll hit Group of Five win totals upon open. But before that, let's dive into a few early college football win totals for 2024.
Colorado Buffaloes
Under 5.5 (+105)
This pick should come with a warning label, as the number officially opened at FanDuel with the under juiced at -115.
Colorado's over has seen early action, but we saw this exact same hype train a year ago. Once Deion Sanders took over as head coach, the 2023 win total jumped up as high as 7 before dropping down to 3.5.
Coach Prime finished with four wins last season but now faces a league change with a much tougher strength of schedule.
For the second consecutive season, Colorado had a roster wipe thanks to the transfer portal. The social media drama continued with a report on the Buffaloes' transfer portal madness that led to Coach Prime calling out a former player.
Here's the good news for the Buffs regarding the latest portal cycle: Colorado did exceedingly well in terms of acquiring high-level talent.
The defensive line will be anchored by four-stars BJ Green and Rayyan Buell, while wide receiver Will Sheppard adds another weapon for quarterback Shedeur Sanders.
Colorado’s WR Will Sheppard clocked in at 20.9 MPH on this touchdown run! 👀 #ReelSpeed#SkoBuffs🦬
🔗 https://t.co/E6bxOkP6z0pic.twitter.com/48xWvDlHd0
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) May 4, 2024
The bad news for Colorado is that it didn't do enough to create depth at any position. The offensive line was a consistent issue, as the Buffaloes lived in passing-down situations.
More troubling is the loss of key players after the Black and Gold Day spring game festivities. Running back Dylan Edwards entered the portal and landed at new league rival Kansas State.
The projection for Colorado is 5.1 wins on the season, finishing 12th in the Big 12. There are no easy victories on the schedule, as the Buffs project as a favorite just once in conference play.
Depth is sure to play a factor in major underdog roles to finish the season against Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State.
Take an under now with a second shot planned if the market continues to move Colorado into bowl-team territory.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Under 4.5 (-140)
Rumblings from the Valley of the Sun culminated in the loss of a blue-chip quarterback after an injury-plagued spring. Jaden Rashada entered the transfer portal, only to land as a backup at Georgia.
There were rumors that backup Sam Leavitt impressed during spring camp, causing Rashada to hit the portal.
New to Tempe, Sam Leavitt 😈🔱 pic.twitter.com/DP3ux0cTr8
— Clutch Sports: Sun Devils (@ClutchSportsASU) December 11, 2023
While Arizona State finished in the upper half of all FBS teams in TARP, the talent has not improved enough to overcome its 2023 analytics.
The Sun Devils finished bottom-15 nationally in Success Rate on both sides of the ball, as Dillingham's offense struggled on scoring attempts beyond the 40-yard line.
The Big 12 schedule-makers took it out on the Sun Devils' inaugural season in the conference.
Arizona State will host Kansas, Utah and UCF as a significant underdog. Dillingham is also tasked with trips to Stillwater and Manhattan during the month of November.
BYU falls into the softest portion of the schedule, but Arizona State will be coming off a boxing match with Kansas State and potentially looking ahead to a Territorial Cup showdown against Arizona.
Our win total projection comes in just below three, indicating this total has plenty of room to run south. ASU doesn't have enough talent at the skill positions for its first year in a much more physical Big 12.
With the toughest schedule in the Big 12 and without their quarterback of the future, we'll take an under on the Sun Devils.
Oklahoma Sooners
Over 7
As any college football expert will tell you, May is for unders and August is for overs.
There must be several positive factors to like an over enough to get ahead of perceived market movement. In Oklahoma's case, a win total of seven represents the rock-bottom price for a team with plenty of value.
The return of linebacker Danny Stutsman provides more than just one of the nation's leading tacklers. Brent Venables' defenses have always relied on a middle linebacker, and Stutsman may be the best in the coach's history.
The transfer portal also saw the addition of four-star TCU defensive lineman Damonic Williams.
Oklahoma returns 90% of experience on the defensive side of the ball after finishing top-30 in Success Rate and Finishing Drives in 2023.
While the offensive numbers are down in terms of experience, the transition from quarterback Dillon Gabriel to Jackson Arnold should be seamless. The Sooners also picked up a massive target through the portal in Purdue wide receiver Deion Burks.
Buy Deion Burks stock while you still can. pic.twitter.com/3qzigikNcy
— George Stoia III (@GeorgeStoia) April 20, 2024
New offensive coordinator Seth Littrell returns home to Norman as well, bringing all of the Air Raid concepts from the School of Mike Leach.
The offense should be clicking by Week 4 after a soft start against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The projection falls at 7.8 for Oklahoma, with November games against Missouri and Alabama serving as hedge opportunities.
