After a full-fledged week of college football, we have reams of data and film to pour over.
Roster turnover and coaching changes revitalized some teams while fully destabilizing others. That has led me to back a pair of underdogs and a wild offensive explosion deep in MAC Country.
Here's my three-leg college football Group of Five parlay that is set to pay out in the +850 neighborhood.
Army vs. FAU Pick
Would it surprise you to find out that Army has the third-longest active winning streak in college football? The Black Knights have won five in a row dating back to early November.
This run coincided with a return to their true triple-option roots. Offensive coordinator Cody Worley is not only utilizing the Cadets’ traditional option scheme, but he’s also improved upon it by sprinkling in formational wrinkles.
Bryson Daily, Army’s starting quarterback, is now taking snaps from under center, out of the pistol and from the shotgun. This is giving teams more to prepare for and puts different defenders in conflict in both the run and pass games.
After scoring just 14 points per game through the first two months of 2023, Army’s offensive tweaks have noticeably changed its fate. During this five-game winning streak, Army is averaging over 25 points per game while dominating on the ground. Last week against FCS Lehigh, Army ran for 375 yards at a 6.7 yards-per-carry clip.
Florida Atlantic has an average run defense by G5 standards, having given up a hair under 150 a game on the ground last fall.
The Owls allowed 179 yards on the ground to Michigan State, but I do have to applaud their work in limiting explosives. Sparty managed just one run over 10 yards all game long.
The issue here isn’t their statistical résumé on defense — it’s their experience against this unique scheme. Florida Atlantic didn’t face an offense like this last year, and now it has just a week to prepare. Advantage, Army.
But if we’re in the trust tree and I’m being absolutely honest with myself, this play is purely a Cam Fancher fade. The Marshall transfer is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in FBS.
His 9.4 QBR doomed the Owls last week against Michigan State. He was running for his life for much of the game, carrying it 25 times for just 67 yards while avoiding pressure on nearly every dropback.
If he were an accurate downfield passer, there would be a chance that FAU could take advantage of a green Army secondary. In his past nine starts, however, Fancher has more turnover-worthy throws than big-time throws and has either turned it over multiple times or been sacked three-plus times in eight of those nine contests.
He's a major liability for FAU, to say the least.
Army’s Nate Woody, a former Broyles Award nominee, has more experience in his front seven to harass Fancher. And just like last week, Woody’s pressure generated a handful of turnover-worthy throws and two interceptions.
I foresee a similar outcome in Boca Raton on Saturday afternoon.
In a low-scoring game, I’ll take the moneyline value and bank on Army scoring its first conference win as a member of the AAC.
Pick: Army ML +150
South Alabama vs. Ohio Pick
I was shocked to see this total open at 53.5, and I still like it below the key number of 59.
South Alabama's opener against North Texas featured 90 points and over 1,100 yards of offense — and there could have been more offensive fireworks had it not been for an empty drive on the Jags’ final possession. North Texas killed the final two minutes of clock in the victory formation.
The loss of head coach Kane Wommack was significant this past offseason. Wommack nearly doubled his salary by taking the defensive coordinator job at Alabama, and his defensive game-planning was sorely missed on Saturday against the Mean Green.
The USA secondary was supposed to be halfway decent, giving the Jags time to rebuild its front seven.
But its defensive backs got torched by Chandler Morris and UNT. The journeyman quarterback finished with 415 yards through the air with three touchdowns.
There was concern coming out of fall camp that South Alabama wouldn’t be able to generate a pass rush. Those concerns were justified, as the unit was nowhere to be found against UNT. Despite 45-plus dropbacks from Morris, USA finished without a sack and just one hurry. This defense is bad enough to be considered bottom-10 in FBS.
Now, the good news for our over is that the South Alabama offense is really exciting with Gio Lopez at the helm. He proved that his breakout bowl performance wasn’t a fluke. Lopez's 494 total yards in Week 1 set a school record.
Despite a pair of turnover-worthy throws, he finished with no turnovers and four total touchdowns.
Two stats really jumped off the page when evaluating this offensive explosion. South Alabama ran 84 plays (second-most in FBS Week 1) and Lopez’s aDOT was an aggressive 14.6 (fourth-highest in Week 1).
That means they’re running a ton of plays and taking deep shots left and right.
Ohio’s tussle with Syracuse easily cashed the over as well, featuring 60 points, and over 900 yards of total offense. The Bobcats made Kyle McCord look like the second coming of Ryan Nassib.
The pocket passer finished with 354 yards and four scores through the air. Head coach Fran Brown remarked after the game that he needs to send Ryan Day a bottle of champagne for sending McCord his way.
The Bobcats kept things interesting by running all over Syracuse. Anthony Tyus was the surprise feature back, and he made the most of his opportunity, going off for 203 yards and two scores.
South Alabama’s run defense shouldn’t pose much of a problem for Tyus. And while Ohio isn’t NASCAR fast like USA, it did run 73 plays on Saturday, the 21st-most of any FBS team.
And finally, when any total is involved, it pays to read the weather report. Luckily, for this over, perfect weather is on tap in Athens. I would play this up to 58.5.
Pick: Over 57.5
Sam Houston vs. UCF Pick
What a difference a quarterback can make. After downright miserable quarterback play a year ago, the Bearkats have found a difference-maker in the pocket.
One of the best-kept secrets in the JUCO ranks, Hunter Watson is now on his way to becoming a breakout star in Conference USA. The former JUCO national champion delivered for K.C. Keeler and his staff, who pulled off a real coup both in recruiting Watson and keeping his starting status a secret right up until kickoff.
Watson threw for 229 yards and a pair of scores while adding 57 yards on the ground. The second-team JUCO All-American has the goods.
I believe he’ll keep the good times rolling at the Bounce House on Saturday night because he doesn’t have to be a one-man show.
Sam Houston has arguably the best receiving corps in Conference USA. Ife Adeyi, Noah Smith and the big-bodied Qua'Vez Humphreys can compete with this UCF secondary.
Sprinkle in a veteran offense line, and this offense has gone from liability to strength in the matter of one game.
There’s more good news for the Bearkats coming off their upset of Rice.
The defense was flying around the football and finished with eight tackles for loss and a pick-six. It gave up just 47 yards on the ground, completely boxing up Dean Connors and the Owls’ attack.
Meanwhile, KJ Jefferson had one of the worst outings among P4 quarterbacks. Between his PFF and ESPN QBR, Jefferson was bottom-five among his P4 peers. A rusty start led to a 7-for-14 stat line with a pick against FCS New Hampshire.
Now we know what UCF is going to do in this spot: run, run and run some more.
The Knights have RJ Harvey and Peny Boone, along with one of the sport's greatest run-game innovators on the headset.
But I’m not taking their performance against New Hampshire as gospel that they can just truck anyone.
One thing going in SHSU's favor in the coaching department is defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity. The Bearkats’ young DC got his start on Malzahn’s staff at Auburn. He’s been in Malzahn’s meetings, knows his system and knows his tendencies.
Catching north of three touchdowns, we don’t need SHSU to play lights-out on defense; we just need it to get off the field a handful of times. Given UCF’s issues in the passing game, I think the Kats can do it.
From a situational perspective, the Knights are also in a look-ahead spot with their conference opener on deck. They travel to TCU and have every reason to head to Fort Worth healthy and with a bit of playcalling mystery in their back pocket.
Historically, this has led some coaches, Malzahn included, to ease off on the throttle once they're in control of a game.
And finally, I pride myself on picking the right times to tail and fade Malzahn. This is an ideal time to fade him because he’s been an underperforming coach as a big home favorite. As a double-digit home favorite against FBS teams at UCF, Malzahn is just 3-6 ATS.
Pick: Sam Houston +22.5
Calabrese's Group of Five Parlay for Week 2 (+812)
- Army ML +150
- Over 57.5
- Sam Houston +22.5
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