I must tip my cap to the Selzer poll, which predicted a comfortable win for Vice President Harris in Iowa. That poll distracted folks from last week's Tulsa ML prediction.
Even so, UL Monroe did their part in a two-play split.
Let’s get back to work this week with a three-leg parlay.
We’ll start by backing Rich Rod with a rest advantage before taking a mountain of points in a pivotal SBC West showdown and ending by backing one of the most underrated offenses in the country out in the Pacific Northwest.
Here’s my college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 11.
College Football Group of 5 Parlay for Week 11
- Jacksonville State -10
- Arkansas State +14.5
- Washington State -20.5
Parlay Odds: +595 (bet365)
Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech Pick
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -380 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +300 |
Let’s start with a situational angle.
I’ve always targeted Coach Rodriguez coming off of a bye.
While it can appear at times that his spread option attack is simply spamming a handful of plays, he adds so many wrinkles to put defenders in conflict. And when he has extra time to game plan against a weak defense, his offenses usually exceed expectations.
To that end, Rich Rod-led teams are 7-2 ATS with a rest advantage.
In my opinion, the other element of the bye week is that the letdown factor is reduced. The Gamecocks dominated Liberty, moving to 4-0 in CUSA while elevating their season outlook from CUSA dark horse to conference co-favorite.
The bye week provided time to enjoy their biggest win since jumping up to the FBS without falling victim to the “rat poison,” as Nick Saban liked to say.
With Sam Houston still lurking at 4-1 in CUSA play, the 'Cocks can’t just coast to the title game. A final back-to-back of Sam Houston and Western Kentucky looms large, but they can’t afford to overlook La Tech in the interim. They know it and will avoid the letdown trap.
Back in August, I called for Sonny Cumbie’s job. Louisiana Tech’s head coach lost too much on offense to be competitive this season. That prediction is playing out on the field.
The Bulldogs have failed to exceed 14 points in three of their five contests in conference play. Scoring just 14 points against FBS-lite UTEP is just plain awful. They followed that up with a field goal against SHSU in a game where the Bearkats looked lost offensively.
You can run on Jacksonville State, which ranks 103rd nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
However, the 'Cocks don’t give up many explosives, and they tackle well. If they make Louisiana Tech earn it with sustained drives, the Bulldogs will shoot themselves in the foot — the Bulldogs rank 131st nationally in Success Rate, 121st in giveaways and 106th in Havoc allowed.
When Louisiana Tech's defense is on the field, I trust Tyler Huff and Tre Stewart running the two-man game on the ground. Stewart ran for 694 yards in four games in October with 11 rushing touchdowns.
Stewart’s measurables are nearly identical to WVU great Steve Slaton, and he’s putting up his numbers on par with the former All-America.
To put this offense into context, the Gamecocks rank 14th nationally in Line Yards and 16th in Rush Success Rate while scoring plenty in conference play. The Cocks are scoring 47.5 points per game while churning out 535 yards per game, 379 of those yards coming on the ground. These top-line stats are all far and away the best in the conference.
Finally, there’s no home-field advantage to speak of here for Louisiana Tech. As a home team against the spread, the Bulldogs are dead even. Ruston is not a needle mover, so I’m happy to play this up to the cusp of two touchdowns at -13.5.
Leg 1: Jacksonville State -10
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Pick
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
Let’s zoom out on the Sun Belt and discuss the big picture.
Arkansas State was supposed to be a dark horse in the SBC West this season, but it fell short of expectations early. The Red Wolves squeaked out wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa before getting drilled 41-9 by Texas State.
Louisiana, meanwhile, was picked third in the West by the media, and it has played great football all season long.
The Cajuns are a one-possession home loss to Tulane away from a perfect season. But let’s be fair to the Ragin’ Cajuns; that loss to Tulane is likely their best performance this season.
Wins over Grambling, Kennesaw State, and Southern Miss are all yawn-worthy. Likewise, UL’s 10-point triumphs over App State and Coastal don’t scream SBC juggernaut.
They’re winning the games they’re supposed to win, just like their one-possession win over Texas State, but winning and covering are different. Louisiana has won their SBC games by 10, 10, 10 and six points. Failing to cover against cover against Southern Miss and App State is revealing.
When you look through the Ragin’ Cajuns profile, you’ll find they’re good but not great at almost everything.
The lone exception is that they don’t get behind the sticks, ranking fourth in Havoc allowed. They’ve protected Ben Wooldridge so well this season, which has translated to UL being highly successful in passing the football.
Wooldridge’s body of work is no fluke. His 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and QBR numbers (top 20) have forced defenses to respect the passing game on every snap, opening rushing lanes for Bill Davis and Zylan Perry, who have been a great rushing tandem.
But there are holes to exploit on defense. You can run on UL — the Cajuns rank 134th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. Equally disconcerting are their issues with bringing down ball carriers.
The Cajuns are among the worst tackling teams in the SBC, ranking 115th in Pro Football Focus's grades. Likewise, they have no pass rush and have one of the lowest Havoc rankings among teams with winning records.
While I respect their well-oiled machine on offense, their defense will open the backdoor. That’s where the law firm of Raynor, Cross & Rucker will spring into action.
The Red Wolves lead the SBC in total offense during conference play (449 ypg). They can take advantage of this UL defense, so I’m sprinkling on the moneyline at +550 and taking the points down to +14.5.
Leg 2: Arkansas State +14.5
Utah State vs Washington State Pick
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
This number remains under three touchdowns, and Utah State’s two-point road win two weeks ago has a lot to do with that.
Sneaking out a meaningless win over Wyoming makes it appear the Aggies have the offensive pop to hang with a quality team like Wazzu.
Spoiler alert: they do not have the offense to avoid a blowout loss on the Palouse.
Wyoming’s defensive metrics live in the 80s and 90s nearly across the board. With the Craig Bohl era dead and gone in Laramie, the lackluster Cowboy defense allowed a wounded Utah State offense to look competent.
I’m here to say that Utah State will struggle to score without Jalen Royals providing them with elite receiver play on the perimeter. He averaged 10 receptions for 166.5 yards in his final four games with five scores. Losing him for the season is devastating to a team that struggles to create explosive plays.
Creating explosive plays is critical here because this contest has track meet written all over it. Thanks to John Mateer, Wazzu remains one of the most underrated offenses in the country.
The Cougs are also getting healthier after a bye week, and I think they’ll rev up this offense back to September levels. Speaking of the season's first month, Wazzu played four home games in September and averaged nearly 47 points per game.
After three of four on the road, Pullman will be a welcomed sight for the nation’s 21st-ranked team.
Speaking of Mateer, Wazzu has done a great job protecting him this season. The Cougars rank seventh in pass protection, translating to top 25 marks in both Pass Success Rate and Quality Drives.
And when you dig into Utah State’s performance against mobile quarterbacks, this matchup looks even better for Washington State.
How has Utah State held up against mobile quarterbacks in recent weeks? Devon Dampier and New Mexico scored 50 and ran up 552 total yards.
Hajj Malik Williams and UNLV also dropped a 50-burger on the Aggies while gaining 546 yards. If you don’t have elite edge rushers or versatile linebackers/safeties who can effectively spy the quarterback, you’re cooked against Mateer and the Wazzu offense.
I project this closer to Wazzu -29.
Leg 3: Washington State -20.5
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