Week 0 is now in the book, which means it's time to welcome back the Group of Five Parlay.
Each week, I, Mike Calabrese, will be providing a three-leg parlay to take your Saturday action to the next level.
For kickoff week, I'm counting on a bounce back from the South Carolina Gamecocks, signs of life from the Nebraska offense as it writes the first chapter in the Book of Raiola, and I close things out in H-Town with a duel pitting two dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks.
So, here's my college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 1.
Old Dominion at South Carolina
Old Dominion was the epitome of fool’s gold last season. The Monarchs won six games by an average of 3.8 points per game. They nipped Texas A&M-Commerce 10-9 when they stopped a last-second two-point conversion.
But their late-game luck was only heating up.
Two weeks later, they stopped Southern Miss at the one-yard line late in the fourth to preserve a four-point road win. The next week at home against App State, they scored in the final minute to beat the Mountaineers by seven.
This close game luck continued deep into the season with a walk-off field goal against Georgia Southern and an insane 11-point final five minutes against Georgia State.
Trailing by 10 late, ODU blocked a Georgia State field goal, kicked one of its own, recorded a safety and took a QB draw into the end zone on fourth-and-goal at the final gun.
After consistently sneaking past FCS and Sun Belt teams during the regular season, ODU’s luck ran out in the bowl season. The Monarchs blew a 28-0 lead to Western Kentucky in the Famous Toastery Bowl.
They won’t have time to feel sorry for themselves because they’re drawing a hungry South Carolina team that should be playing with a sense of urgency after missing a bowl game last season.
South Carolina has the pieces on offense to be explosive. LaNorris Sellers has upside as a true dual threat. Transfer running back Rocket Sanders gives the Gamecocks much more pop in the running game.
And Nyck Harbor is everyone’s pick to be a breakout star in the SEC. The 6-foot-5, 242-pound sophomore topped Bruce Feldman’s hallowed “Freaks” list two years in a row.
Why is the big-bodied wide receiver fawned over? He may be the fastest man alive above 240 pounds. His 200m time (20.20-second personal best) made him an automatic qualifier for the Olympic Trials.
Last season, he struggled to understand coverages and never proved to defenses that he was more than a straight-line route runner. If the preseason buzz is to be believed, the South Carolina staff will be moving heaven and earth to get him the ball in space as much as they possibly can.
That’s the good news with the Gamecocks. The bad news is that their offensive line was atrocious last season. Per PFF, USC finished 106th in pass blocking and 121st in run blocking. That’s second-worst in the SEC in pass blocking and last in run blocking.
Granted, they were never going to succeed with all the injuries they dealt with in 2023 along the line, but because of those injuries — and three three-star additions in the portal — they have a lot of experience to work with this year.
Depending on how you qualify starters, there are four back on the offensive line.
Blocking the ODU front shouldn’t be a problem in this game because it's a defense that struggles to generate negative plays.
Yes, Jason Henderson the tackling king returns, but he loses the Robin to his Batman, Wayne Matthews III. The sought-after linebacker (9.5 TFLs) transferred to Michigan State. And even with Matthews in the mix last year, ODU still finished 127th in pass rush, per PFF.
The Monarchs’ secondary is patchwork with a handful of transfers hoping to gel. The last image fans and bettors have of the ODU cornerbacks was their second-half performance against WKU in the bowl game. In his first career start, WKU’s Caden Veltkamp finished 40-for-52 for 383 yards and five passing touchdowns. They put the burnt toast in the Toastery Bowl.
Despite a down year in Columbia, South Carolina returns potential All-SEC defenders at every level. Tonka Hemingway on the line, Debo Williams at linebacker and Nick Emmanwori at safety could all leave their mark on this game.
If I can get 38 points out of the South Carolina offense, I feel very good about it putting the ODU offense in a box. If, for no other reason, the ODU offensive line should do it in.
The Monarchs were awful in pass pro last year (123rd by PFF). They’re replacing three starters and Grant Wilson — despite decent rushing numbers — turned into a statue under passing pressure. He took 51 (!!) sacks last season.
I would play this all the way to the edge of 24 at 23.5 if this thing steams up before kickoff.
Pick: South Carolina -20.5 |
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UTEP vs. Nebraska
The first game required a deep dive on why ODU was overrated and why South Carolina was potentially flying under the radar. This play shouldn’t require the same level of persuasion.
UTEP had become a tough watch in recent years. When it was good, it was winning rock fights, leaning on a salty defense and strong running game.
But when the bottom fell out, the UTEP defense was a train wreck and its offense couldn’t create enough explosive plays to cover up for that defensive regression.
Enter Scotty Walden. The new leading man in El Paso is a ball of energy and his offenses play with the kind of frenetic energy that's made the 34-year-old a rising star in the coaching ranks. He's stated publicly that he wants to snap the ball every 12 seconds. His blur offense is hoping to catch defenses napping.
That’s music to my ears in terms of the total. UTEP is either going to score quickly or hand it back to the Nebraska offense quickly. Either way, that's going to translate to more points and more possessions.
With extra possessions at their disposal, I foresee a breakout game from freshman savior Dylan Raiola. If you skipped the Nebraska spring game, you missed out on his impressive performance. He effortlessly picked apart the defense, finishing 16-of-22 for 239 yards with two touchdowns and a two-point conversion.
His OC Marcus Satterfield finally has his quarterback, and if that's true, opponents need to be put on notice.
In Year 1 at South Carolina, Satterfield’s attack was anemic, finishing 104th in scoring. But that’s because he had three QBs who all struggled in the pocket.
But in Year 2, he brought in Spencer Rattler, and the Cocks made a huge jump, landing inside the top 40 while averaging over 32 points per game.
The same thing is playing out here in Lincoln. Nebraska was a mess last year because it had nothing at quarterback. Nebraska only finished ahead of Army and Iowa in PFF passing grade.
Now Satterfield gets the five-star Raiola and a pair of big receivers on the outside. Jahmal Banks comes in from Wake after catching over 100 career balls and 13 TDs. Banks’ 23 contested catches over the past two seasons are tied for fifth among Power Five wide receivers.
Prior to an injury at Texas, Isaiah Neyor was a star at Wyoming in 2022 (11 TDs). Both Banks and Neyor are huge at 6-foot-4.
The Nebraska offensive line will be tested in Big Ten play and may determine this team’s overall ceiling, but in Week 1, against lowly UTEP, they'll manhandle the Miners. The UTEP defense couldn’t stop the run at all last year and uncharacteristically finished 113th in tackling. I wouldn’t count on many stops in front of another sell-out crowd at Memorial Stadium.
Nebraska and its fans have been waiting for the train to get back on the tracks. The Huskers missed a bowl in eight straight seasons. Their loyal fans deserve a big show, and they're going to get one here.
And one final nugget. Matt Rhule is a program builder. After installing his schemes and convincing his teams to embrace his culture, he wins in his second year. In his Year 2 openers at both Temple and Baylor, his teams put on a show, averaging 46 points per game.
The pieces are there for a 50+ point performance out of the Cornhuskers in Year 2 under Rhule.
I would play the over up to 51.5.
Pick: Over 49 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
UNLV vs. Houston
Having covered the Group of Five for so long, I know Willie Fritz well. He’s a great coach, full stop. But he’s not an overnight miracle worker.
He built up Blinn at the JUCO ranks, Central Missouri in Division II, Sam Houston State at the FCS level and both Georgia Southern and Tulane in G5 land. With the exception of Georgia Southern, it took him at least a year to get things cooking.
I foresee a slow build in H-Town as well.
Fritz returns his quarterback, but he wants to run the ball, while using option elements. He ran the ball as much as any coach in the past two seasons, finishing top-25 in run ratio in both ‘22 and ‘23.
And herein lies the problem. There will be four new offensive line starters in front of Donovan Smith.
And speaking of Smith he didn’t do much in the spring as he recovered from a torn labrum that was surgically repaired.
If that wasn’t bad enough, U-of-H lost its top receivers — Matthew Golden and Samuel Brown — to the portal to Texas and Miami (FL), respectively.
On the defensive side of the ball, I love the Cougars’ new DC Shiel Wood. Without a doubt, he's a rising star, having transformed mediocre defenses into packs of killers at Troy and Tulane. But he’ll have his work cut out for him as he breaks in nine new starters to his 3-3-5 defense.
So, with Houston vulnerable and lacking experience, can UNLV take advantage? With this quarterback room they can. Matt Sluka comes in from Holy Cross, and he's a defensive coordinator’s nightmare as a dual threat.
Now, the depth chart says three players are starting at quarterback, but that’s gamesmanship, pure and simple. We’re likely going to see Sluka and Hajj-Malik Williams, but Sluka has more upside operating this Go-Go Offense.
And reports are in that Sluka has taken first-team reps in the past week, according to Mike Grimala of the Las Vegas Sun.
I talked Sluka up during preview season, but I can’t overstate how aggressive he is as a runner. When he pulls it, he hunts undersized defensive backs and runs them over. If you watched Holy Cross’ near upset of Boston College, it was impossible not to root for the guy.
The Walter Payton Award finalist exhibits great vision and superior toughness, but he could stand to cut down on the turnover-worthy throws.
On that front, he has two amazing things going for him.
First, this offensive line is just enormous. Tackle Tiger Shanks is on every preseason watch list, and as a unit, they average 315 pounds between the four seniors and one junior. Size, experience and at least one future NFL starter protecting Sluka? Sign me up.
And then there’s the skill position studs. All-American Ricky White at wide receiver is a mismatch when he isn’t double-teamed. And Jai’Den Thomas, a freshman All-American at running back, is one of the shiftiest runners in the country.
Toss in Texas transfer Casey Cain — another big weapon at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds — and you get the feeling that this offense could be even better than it was last year when it averaged 34.4 points per game (22nd).
The river card when it comes to the Rebels is their defense because it’ll make ‘em or break ‘em this year in Sin City. They return seven starters, and added Jalen Catalon from Texas and Tony Grimes.
They move into the two starting safety positions. That’s high-end talent manning the back of your defense.
Jackson Woodard is a potential conference player of the year at linebacker. But even with the starting talent, they need to consistently cut down on big plays, which killed them last year. They finished 123rd in explosive plays allowed.
The only tiny concern I have is the UNLV kicking game. Jose Pisano, who was a clutch kicker, has moved on from college. That means the Rebs will be relying on freshman Caden Chittenden. The good news is that he has a big leg and went 18-of-22 last year in high school, bombing one in from 57 yards out.
Here’s to hoping it doesn’t come down to a late-game kick when the “College Kicker” alarm bells start going off.
Pick: UNLV ML +114 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Calabrese's Group of Five Parlay for Week 1
- South Carolina -20.5
- Over 49
- UNLV ML +114
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