When it comes to Group of Five football, sometimes you have to trust your numbers and bet on games that aren’t very aesthetically pleasing.
That is certainly the case with the Sun Belt West matchup I’ve circled as a great under-candidate.
Fading one of the sport’s worst teams on Friday night is equally depressing, but sometimes you must toss dirt on a team without a pulse.
Luckily, that builds up to the most consequential Army-Notre Dame game in 58 years. So take your medicine in the AAC and Sun Belt and stick around for a bold call in a ranked matchup between the Cadets and Irish.
Here’s my college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 13.
College Football Group of 5 Parlay for Week 12
- UTSA -16.5
- ULM vs. Arkansas State Under 52
- Army ML +475
Parlay Odds: +1995 (bet365)
Temple vs UTSA Pick
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -750 |
Owls landed on the endangered species list this fall.
In the past three weeks, every FBS head coach of an Owl team (FAU, Kennesaw State, Rice, Temple) has been fired.
This, of course, includes Temple’s Stan Drayton, who finished 9-25 in North Philadelphia.
The administration gave him his walking papers despite an 18-15 OT win against FAU in his final game. That game against FAU became a twin killing, serving as Tom Herman’s final game as the Owls head coach.
Owls famously have their heads on a swivel, but I’m not sure anyone saw four in-season pink slips coming for the Owl quartet.
Anyone who regularly bets college football can tell you that an in-season coaching change often comes with a post-firing bump. Teams rally together and frequently play their best football of the season immediately after their head coach gets the axe.
As Kennesaw State’s interim head coach, Chandler Burks nearly orchestrated an upset of Sam Houston in his first game. As 21-point underdogs, they almost cashed the enormous moneyline.
Rice experienced the same bump in the wake of the Mike Bloomgren firing. Pete Alamar led Rice into battle as 7.5-point underdogs to Memphis and covered the spread in a 27-20 Tigers’ win.
So why am I bucking this trend and fading Temple in Everett Withers’ first game as Temple’s leading man?
It’s simple: when things have gone wrong for Temple this season, they’ve gone really wrong.
This season, Temple has dropped five games by more than three touchdowns. The Owls lost by 46 to Tulane, 22 to ECU, 28 to Army, and 20 to Navy, and were wiped off the face of the earth by Oklahoma, 51-3.
UTSA, meanwhile, has figured out its offense and is operating at a top-ten level, with Owen McCown piloting this well-balanced attack. In his last five games, McCown has averaged 376 total yards per game. The offense, as a whole, has averaged over 40 points per game during this resurgence.
There were growing pains in the post-Frank Harris era, but those pains are only being felt by opposing defenses now.
Bowl eligibility is right there for the Roadrunners (5-5), so I don’t foresee them sleepwalking here.
The question in this spot is: can we expect them to fight back once Temple is down?
Temple has failed to score three touchdowns in five of their last six games. Yes, Dante Wright is a superstar on the perimeter, and he’s coming off of a 14/147 performance.
But UTSA just grounded the UNT passing attack. This was the same Mean Green passing offense that ranks fifth nationally. Chandler Morris finished with two interceptions and a QBR of 28.7. The UTSA secondary will be ready for Temple and Wright.
Temple has been 6-17 ATS as a road underdog for the past five years. That’s the worst mark in the AAC and tied for the worst record in the Group of Five with Kent State.
Leg 1: UTSA -16.5
ULM vs Arkansas State Pick
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -140 |
The Warhawks have been one of the best stories in college football this season.
The media picked UL Monroe to finish dead last in the SBC West in the preseason. Its win total was set at 1.5. The Warhawks cashed that over by starting the season 2-0 with a blowout win over Trent Dilfer and the UAB Blazers.
But their college football Cinderella story has hit the skids.
ULM has lost four straight after racing out to a 5-1 start. Except for a narrow defeat at Marshall (28-23), they’ve been boat-raced by SBC competition as of late.
I’m not interested in buying low on the Warhawks, but I think their play style lends itself to a lower-scoring game.
Louisiana Monroe is an absolute snail offensively. The average time between the Warhawks snaps is 30.9 seconds (133rd). This makes them a de facto Service Academy team. They want to play keep away by feeding their freshman breakout star Ahmad Hardy. This season, Hardy has been option one, two, and three for ULM in SBC games. He’s averaged 20 carries and 129 yards per game in conference clashes from scrimmage.
Can Arkansas State contain Hardy and get off the field?
The Red Wolves defensive résumé doesn’t give me confidence that they do that.
The Red Wolves rank 132nd nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, which is a fancy way of saying they couldn’t stop a runny nose. Butch Jones's team is near the bottom in Line Yards, Stuff Rate, and PFF’s Tackling grades. That’s why we could see this game turn into a running clock situation.
When Arkansas State has the football, it should be able to move the ball successfully, but I wouldn’t count on big explosive chunk plays. ULM has one of the best pass defenses in the SBC, checking in at 46th in coverage and 35th in passing Success Rate allowed. You can run on the Warhawks all day, but you must do it four and five yards at a time, as they rank 12th nationally in Rush Explosives allowed.
I would play this under down to 50.
Leg 2: Under 52
Army vs Notre Dame Pick
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
Here's a quick history lesson to kick off this preview.
Notre Dame selected Yankee Stadium as tribute to the 100th anniversary of the “Four Horsemen” game when Notre Dame upset Army 14-7 at the Polo Grounds in 1924. Since the Polo Grounds closed over 60 years ago, Notre Dame and Army agreed upon the next best thing: Yankee Stadium.
These teams haven’t met since 2016, when Notre Dame whipped Army 44-6 in San Antonio. Making matters worse for the Cadets, Army hasn’t beat Notre Dame 66 years. The Black Knights have only stayed within one score twice since 1958, a one-point loss to the Irish in the Meadowlands in 1995 and a three-point road loss in South Bend in 1998.
Now, the immediate pushback on an Army upset call is simple. Notre Dame is rolling. The Irish have won eight in a row and decimated their last five opponents by 33 points per game.
When they drew a Service Academy earlier this season, they laid the lumber on Navy, dropping the Midshipmen 51-14 at MetLife Stadium.
So that means Army stands no chance, right?
Well, Navy had six turnovers in their game with Notre Dame. Five of those turnovers were lost fumbles. Those six giveaways were nearly half of Navy’s turnovers for the entire season. Notre Dame was the better team by a mile that day, but the +6 turnover margin explains the blowout.
Luckily for Army, protecting the football is their bread and butter.
Army is one of the most buttoned teams in the ball security department. The Cadets have just three giveaways all season long. It starts with quarterback Bryson Daily, who is back to being fully healthy. If you blended Eric Crouch and Mike Alstott, you’d get Bryson Daily. He always makes the right decision with the football and seems to relish the opportunity to run over defenders. He ran it 36 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns against North Texas in a 14-3 Army win. In eight games, he has 21 rushing touchdowns. That’s a higher rushing touchdown per game average than Ashton Jeanty.
I mentioned the Four Horsemen at the top, so how about mentioning the Holy Trinity of rushing the football?
Army is first in Rush Success Rate, Line yards, and Stuff Rate. The Black Knights never get behind the sticks, ranking first in Havoc avoidance.
This is why Jeff Monken’s team is adept at shrinking games down. Army ranks second in time of possession and put on a master class in ball control against North Texas. The high-scoring UNT offense got just six drives the entire game against Army.
On the Injury front, Howard Cross remains questionable for Notre Dame at defensive tackle. He sprained his ankle against Florida State and didn’t play last week against Virginia. The Wahoos threw that game away with three Anthony Colandrea interceptions, but they did run it effectively at times, finishing with 128 yards on the ground. Without Cross dominating the line of scrimmage, Notre Dame is a good but not elite run defense.
The Army’s game plan for this one starts and ends with limiting the Irish on the ground.
If you can successfully limit the Notre Dame running game, you can hang with them. Northern Illinois held the Irish to 123 rushing yards, forcing the Irish into third and longs. That translated to a 30% conversion rate on third downs and two Riley Leonard interceptions.
If you go solely by their metrics, it’s clear as day that Army can be run on. The Black Knights will lose in the trenches, but can they lose slowly? That’s the question.
Army, while mediocre in a handful of defensive metrics, has made teams beat them with long drives. The Black Knights are in the top ten in limiting explosives.
If they can limit Notre Dame’s explosive plays, this is where the game will swing on third downs.
If the Irish get into 15-plus yards third down, I would be concerned if I held a Notre Dame ticket. The Irish rank 86th in the third=down conversion rate. Every Army stop has the chance to shrink this game hugely, starting with forcing third downs.
Army had an extra week to prepare, so I expect Cody Worley to add new wrinkles to their offensive game plan. They’ve run fake field goals this season and converted 84% of their fourth downs (second).
Simply put, this team doesn’t play scared.
Do you know who should be scared if this is a close game? Notre Dame.
This is a de facto CFP elimination game for Notre Dame. They didn’t handle that pressure against Northern Illinois this season or Marshall last fall. I’ve seen Notre Dame crumble in big moments against G5 teams, so I can’t pass up on this tremendous moneyline value in the Bronx.
Leg 3: Army ML +475
