Last week, the Army upset of FAU set the stage for a big day and a potential monster parlay crossing the finish line. But then a late scratch of South Alabama’s starting quarterback Gio Lopez threw cold water on the whole operation.
Let’s not allow a secret turf toe injury to derail this column, though.
I’m back this week with an audacious Friday night upset call to get things started. After that, it’s down to Texas for a Lone Star shootout before we finish things out by fading Cam Fancher once again in the Shula Bowl.
Here's my three-leg college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 3.
Mike Calabrese's College Football Group of 5 Week 3 Parlay
- UNLV +270 ML vs. Kansas
- North Texas vs. Texas Tech Over 68
- FIU +5 vs. FAU
Parlay Odds: +1249 (Caesars)
UNLV vs. Kansas Pick
The Kansas Jayhawks officially have a problem. The loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has been felt deeply by their offense, particularly starting quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels has thrown four picks through two games while struggling with his accuracy.
Before his 2023 campaign was prematurely cut short due to a back injury, he posted a 5:1 TD-INT ratio while connecting on 74.7% of his pass attempts.
In 2024, he's thrown more picks than touchdowns and his completion percentage has dipped down to 57.4%.
Daniels and the Kansas offense couldn’t put together back-to-back quality drives against Illinois last week, calling into question Daniels’ ceiling without his old offensive coordinator calling plays. KU finished with four turnovers and a turnover on downs in Illinois territory.
Things aren’t looking up with a revitalized UNLV defense coming to town.
The Rebels' defense dominated Houston on the road in Week 1 and should have shut the Cougars out. This is the same Houston team that outgunned Oklahoma last week and nearly upset the Sooners in Norman.
In 2023, it was the UNLV defense that let it down in big moments, but returning experience and the addition of former All-SEC safety Jalen Catalon to its secondary has made all the difference in 2024.
Barry Odom promised a defensive makeover when he was hired as UNLV’s head coach two years ago, and it appears he’s found a way to crank up the Havoc. Last season, UNLV finished outside the top 100 in defensive Havoc, but this year it's already up to 37th in the country.
On the offensive side of things, UNLV profiles like a live 'dog. The Rebels have a unique offense, an aggressive play-caller and a fearless dual-threat quarterback.
Matthew Sluka is exactly what I look for in an underdog quarterback, namely he wants to make big plays and he’s willing to roll the dice to get that done. Sluka has just 14 completions this season, but five have gone for touchdowns.
He’s also a really strong runner, and we know that OC Brennan Marion is going to scheme up some wild stuff in the Go-Go offense to get his playmakers in space.
Jai’Den Thomas, backup quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and All-American Ricky White III have been used sparingly through two weeks, but I think that will change on Friday night.
The Go-Go offense has room for two quarterbacks on the field at once, and White is coming off a three-touchdown performance despite just playing a half last week.
If Kansas is forced to play from behind, this game could get away from it with a quarterback low on confidence and an opponent surging in the right direction.
Leg 1: UNLV ML +270
North Texas vs. Texas Tech Pick
A quick gambling PSA before we dive into this over: Through two and a half weeks of football, Group of Five unders have been cashing at a 60% clip.
Some of this can be attributed to underdogs playing keep away, just as Northern Illinois did in South Bend on Saturday. The Huskies held the ball for nine more minutes than the Irish and somehow ran 27 plays across three drives in the third quarter without scoring a single point. They killed 13 minutes and 59 seconds off the clock in the third quarter alone.
Low-scoring, slow-paced games, featuring a lot of running and underneath throws are all the rage so far this season. But this is not one of those games.
Both the Mean Green and Red Raiders push the tempo. Tech snaps it under 21 seconds per play (fourth in plays per game) and North Texas isn’t far behind.
Defensively, UNT and TTU have been downright awful to start the season. Texas Tech has the worst Power Four defense through two games. Tim DeRuyter’s hybrid 3-4/3-3-5 is giving up 483.5 yards per game, and that includes a tilt with FCS Abilene Christian.
North Texas may have won its opener against South Alabama, but it allowed Lopez to set the USA school record for total yardage in a game.
Making matters worst for Texas Tech is its injury situation. Joey McGuire’s bunch are the walking wounded right now, with nine players on the two-deep currently listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.
That includes All-Big 12 running back Tahj Brooks. Additionally, Tech’s starting left guard Vinny Sciury has been lost for the season. If Brooks doesn’t go, you can expect Behren Morton to chuck it 40+ times as he has in the Red Raiders' first two games of the season (100 attempts in 2024).
If North Texas can keep the pressure on Tech and make this a four-quarter affair, this game should cruise past this number.
UNT’s Chandler Morris looks reborn in Eric Morris’ Air Raid system and his receiving corps should eat up this TTU secondary. Damon Ward Jr. and DT Sheffield have taken turns being the go-to receiver, accounting for 26 receptions, 394 yards and five scores through two games.
Given that this is Lubbock, it always pays to check the weather report. It’s going to be scorching hot with the heat index above 100 degrees, so these defenses should wilt.
Additionally, it’ll be breezy, but below 10 mph. As long as we don’t flirt with 15+ mph wind, the passing games should be fine.
Leg 2: Over 68
FIU vs. FAU Pick
Last week, we faded FAU with a play on Army moneyline. The Cadets' performance was reminiscent of the drill work they perform at West Point. They were organized, disciplined and ruthlessly efficient. Army ran for 405 yards and capped every red zone trip with a touchdown.
Florida Atlantic had no answer and for the second straight week, it opted to put the ball in Cam Fancher’s hands while hoping for the best. Despite Fancher throwing it 37 times and carrying it four times, the Owls’ quarterback was wholly ineffective for most of the day.
Despite having the football in his hands on 77% of FAU's snaps, he finished with just 203 total yards, an interception and two turnovers on downs. The Owls also punted it away on four separate occasions.
After two weeks, the results are in for this offense, and they’re dreadful.
In years past, FAU was able to rely on dynamic playmakers like running back Larry McCammon III or receiver LaJohntay Wester. Neither of those playmakers are walking through that door.
This team is in dire need of a playmaker, and it doesn’t appear like one is emerging. The Owls are averaging just 3.86 yards per play, which puts them behind FBS newcomer Kennesaw State (130th).
Meanwhile, here comes the FIU Panthers up I-95, fresh off a 52-point performance in Week 2. The Panthers’ blowout of Central Michigan represents the program’s highwater mark since they upset Miami (FL) back in 2019.
The Panthers’ offense churned out big play after big play, particularly on the ground. Keyone Jenkins, in his second year as FIU’s QB1, looked in command for four quarters.
When you compare his three total touchdowns and zero turnovers to Fancher’s ghastly stat lines, it’s clear that FIU has a sizable advantage at quarterback.
Defensively, FIU has been buttoned up in the first two weeks. One stat that really pops off the page is that the Panthers are 12th in tackling, according to PFF. That means no more freebies and chunk plays like the previously disorganized FIU defense.
If you remove a late touchdown against Indiana, the Panthers essentially played eight straight quarters of above-average defense. This unit has been pitiful in the past five seasons, so to see consistently competent play on this side of the ball is surprising.
The Panthers picked Central Michigan’s Joe Labas off five times and finished with six takeaways. Given Fancher’s issues with turnovers, FIU may need to bring its turnover cannon on the road again. (Yes, it’s a thing.)
In Pitfall Stadium, this would be a moneyline play, but I’m happy to take the points instead.
I would play this down to FIU+4.5.
Leg 3: FIU +5
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